Hungary's trying to revive Western ties may fall short

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Short Interval ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tv Advertising ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Foreign Media ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Budapest's balancing between traditional and non-traditional ties. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently received two important visitors in Budapest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (February 2) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 17). The short interval between them is symbolic of Hungary's foreign-policy balancing act. However, the Fidesz government's 'Eastern opening' strategy has increasingly shown its limits in the past year, prompting Orban to make gestures towards his Western allies. Impacts Central European allies are likely to distance themselves further from Hungary following Putin's visit to Budapest. Despite addressing discriminatory taxes on TV advertising, political control will continue to limit foreign media investments. Anti-Russian sentiment within Hungarian public opinion may open a window of opportunity for opposition parties.

Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Do So

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Trump UK visit carries risks for May

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The visit, sandwiched between the July 11-12 NATO Summit and July 16 meeting of Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, returns UK Prime Minister Theresa May's trip to Washington in January 2017. Impacts The post-Brexit UK-EU deal could scupper a UK-US free trade deal. Trump’s visit may see some new UK-US business deals, and new security and military cooperation pledges. New UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt will need to build ties with Trump and his administration.

Tactical needs will shape Israeli ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
The Third ◽  
Security Relations ◽  
Russian President ◽  
International Engagement ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Drivers and constraints in Israeli engagement with Russia Significance Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visited Moscow on June 7 for the third time in under nine months. His frequent meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin reflect his irritation with US President Barack Obama as well as a desire for more diverse international engagement. He also needs to ensure good communication on military actions in Syria given that Russian and Israeli interests are so disparate. Impacts The appointment of a pro-Russian defence minister in Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, should improve security relations. While supplying arms to Iran, Russia will press Israel not to supply arms to Ukraine. Putin's encouragement for Israel to revive ties with Turkey may indicate he wants a similar thaw with Ankara.

On the Front Line in the Fight against the Virus: Conceptual Framing and War Patterns in Political Discourse

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-180
Author(s):  
Anna Islentyeva
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Political Discourses ◽  
Linguistic Patterns ◽  
British Prime Minister ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Political Framing ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractIn light of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, military linguistic patterns and framings now seem to be omnipresent in our daily discourses. Media and political discourses play a key role in conceptualising the pandemic, its impact, and the measures taken to respond to it in terms of war. This study represents a comparative discourse analysis of a selection of official statements and speeches delivered by four world leaders whose countries have been severely affected by the coronavirus pandemic: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, US President Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The linguistic analysis attempts to identify the differences and similarities in the political framing of the pandemic and these governments’ responses to it. A particular focus is placed on the range of metaphorical patterns that foreground the warlike and aggressive nature of these measures.

Russia's Asian gas pivot will progress slowly

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
East Siberia ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Price Discounts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Outlook for Russia-Asia gas ties. Significance Last year, Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a 30 year deal worth 400 billion dollars to sell 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) yearly of natural gas to China, starting in 2018-19. Gazprom will have to build the 4,000 kilometres 'Power of Siberia' pipeline. The deal is the cornerstone of Russia's pivot towards Asia. Other elements include the East Siberia Pacific Oil Pipeline, the liberalisation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the planned second pipeline to China via the Altai Western route. However, the past year's events are frustrating Moscow's ambitions. Whether Russia succeeds or not bears implications for the global gas industry. Impacts By 2035, over 30% of Russia's gas exports will go to Asia. Liquefaction technologies are not on the sanctions list, but they might be if sanctions were widened. To seal the Altai deal, Russia will have to grant price discounts to make the offer too good to refuse.

Central European defence cooperation will increase

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
European Perspective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Us ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
First Time

Subject The Central European perspective on greater EU cooperation in defence. Significance The proposal on August 26 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Central European 'Visegrad Four' (V4) countries for the creation of a European army was the first time such a clarion call had been made collectively by EU leaders, as opposed to the more modest idea of developing European defence cooperation and capability. It is surprising that Poland was part of the initiative, given its commitment to NATO and trans-Atlantic relations, which are often taken as a reason to oppose further EU integration. Impacts Brexit has brought forth a variety of proposals to strengthen the EU's military arm. However, political and operational challenges mean that neither deeper cooperation nor a full EU army will be achieved easily, if ever. Insecurity about Russia and the US NATO commitment to Central Europe underlie the call, but cannot be meaningfully addressed soon. Poland will remain staunchly pro-NATO but must prepare for defence alternatives that can include EU forces.

Turkish-EU migrant policies will continue to diverge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Eu

Significance German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Germany is "ready to offer support" on four Turkish demands in return for cooperating with the EU in the migrant crisis. At a joint press conference in Istanbul yesterday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu repeated Ankara's four conditions for implementing an action plan against the influx of Syrian refugees into Europe. It wants more EU aid for those refugees inside Turkey; three chapters opened in Turkey's EU accession negotiations; visa liberalisation for Turks travelling to the EU; and a seat for Turkey at EU summits. Impacts Erdogan's resentment over EU condemnations of growing authoritarianism is so deep that any EU softening will have little impact. Davutoglu and Erdogan present Turkey as so important globally, that the EU is desperate that it join; they have no interest in accession. Several EU member states have severe reservations about visa liberalisation, funding aid and opening new accession chapters.

Ramzan Kadyrov: The Indigenous Key to Success in Putin's Chechenization Strategy?

2008 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 659-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Russell
Keyword(s):  
Final Stage ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Rapid Transformation

On 15 February 2007 Vladimir Putin accepted the resignation of Alu Alkhanov as President of Chechnya and nominated the Chechen prime minister—Ramzan Kadyrov—to act as his successor. This appointment, duly rubber-stamped by Chechnya's parliament, brought to an end to more than four months of speculation since 5 October 2006, when Kadyrov attained the age of 30 and thus became eligible for the post of Chechnya's head of state. Kadyrov's elevation to de jure rather than de facto supremacy in Chechen society not only completed the final stage of the remarkably rapid transformation of this one-time rebel, juvenile thug and political ingénue but also put Putin's policy of Chechenization firmly back on track, which had been effectively derailed since the assassination of Chechnya's first pro-Russian president—Akhmad Kadyrov—Ramzan's father, in May 2004.

TurkStream will need Russian gas discount deal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
New Deal ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
European Markets

Subject The Russo-Turkish intergovernmental TurkStream agreement. Significance An agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 10 envisages a 31.5-billion-cubic-metres/year (bcm/y) natural gas transit line under the Black Sea and through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. One of two parallel pipes would supply 15.75 bcm/y gas to Turkey, replacing an existing pipeline. The second would export the same volume to European markets via a planned border 'hub' and export route yet to be announced. Impacts TurkStream's extra volume will increase Turkish dependence on Russian gas but allow more supply flexibility during peak winter demand. Delivering more Russian gas to Central-Eastern Europe will make it more difficult for other potential gas suppliers to secure market share. The agreement will bring Ankara and Moscow closer and may be followed by a new deal to restart the frozen Akkuyu nuclear plant.

Bank of Japan may resort to more extreme measures

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Board Meeting ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Bank Of Japan ◽  
Fiscal Balance

Subject Outlook for monetary policy in Japan. Significance The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has called for a comprehensive review of economic activity and prices at the next board meeting on September 20, the first such review since early 2013, soon after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's election. Consumer prices have been flat for most of the past year despite the BoJ's 2% inflation goal. Economic activity has moved fitfully between growth and recession, averaging around 0.5% annually. A massive increase of the monetary base is only weakly influencing business and consumer spending. Impacts The government's latest fiscal stimulus will probably be closer to 7.5 trillion yen than the headline 28-trillion-yen figure. Helicopter money would undermine the government's efforts to achieve its goal of primary fiscal balance by 2020. The main risk of helicopter money would be hyperinflation -- a long-term risk rooted in politics.

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