Designing a qualitative system dynamics model of crowdfunding by document model building

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Haji Gholam Saryazdi ◽  
Ali Rajabzadeh Ghatari ◽  
Alinaghi Mashayekhi ◽  
Alireza Hassanzadeh
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Points ◽  
Qualitative System Dynamics ◽  
First Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to design a qualitative model of crowdfunding dynamics through the document model building (DMB). Design/methodology/approach Methodology in this paper is the qualitative system dynamics through DMB. In DMB, the authors identify the variables that are drivers of its growth and collapse, and the model will be developed by using the systematic review of the literature. Findings Designing of the dynamics of crowdfunding model through DMB. Identifying variables that are drivers of crowdfunding growth and collapse. Determining leverage points in crowdfunding diffusion. Originality/value This paper, for the first time, with the aim of identifying and explaining the efficient positive and negative dynamics in this method, examines crowdfunding systematically and structurally.

scholarly journals Framing User Confidence in a System Dynamics Model: the Case of a Workforce Planning Problem in the New Zealand Army

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jason Yves Markham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Constant Comparative Analysis

<p>Despite unresolved controversy and ongoing debate about user confidence in system dynamics models, there has been limited empirical exploration of the concept of user confidence in system dynamics models. This research elicited the concept of user confidence using a framing method (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989); analyzed the confidence criteria using constant comparative analysis (Cavana, Delahaye & Sekaran, 2001) and organized the confidence criteria into a descriptive framework. This research was conducted as an ethnographic case study of a New Zealand Army workforce planning problem. The simultaneous objectives of this research were to elicit the concept of user confidence in a system dynamics model and to assess the usefulness of the framing method for ascertaining user confidence criteria. The findings suggest that users of a system dynamics model had unique views of confidence, and while these views changed during the model-building project, they shared a common perspective of utility. Interestingly, user confidence criteria did not change significantly between the qualitative and quantitative stages of model-building. Output from the system dynamics workforce model supported the dynamic hypothesis that the use of ‘aspirational’ separation forecasts have contributed to New Zealand Army workforce shortfalls during times of high labour demand. Additionally, framing proved to be a useful methodology for eliciting and interpreting the elusive concept of user confidence in this case study. This case study concludes that although the confidence criteria of model users are diverse, extensive and difficult to elicit; framing can be employed as an interpretive filter to ascertain the elements of user confidence.</p>

scholarly journals Framing User Confidence in a System Dynamics Model: the Case of a Workforce Planning Problem in the New Zealand Army

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jason Yves Markham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Workforce Planning ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Constant Comparative Analysis

<p>Despite unresolved controversy and ongoing debate about user confidence in system dynamics models, there has been limited empirical exploration of the concept of user confidence in system dynamics models. This research elicited the concept of user confidence using a framing method (Russo & Schoemaker, 1989); analyzed the confidence criteria using constant comparative analysis (Cavana, Delahaye & Sekaran, 2001) and organized the confidence criteria into a descriptive framework. This research was conducted as an ethnographic case study of a New Zealand Army workforce planning problem. The simultaneous objectives of this research were to elicit the concept of user confidence in a system dynamics model and to assess the usefulness of the framing method for ascertaining user confidence criteria. The findings suggest that users of a system dynamics model had unique views of confidence, and while these views changed during the model-building project, they shared a common perspective of utility. Interestingly, user confidence criteria did not change significantly between the qualitative and quantitative stages of model-building. Output from the system dynamics workforce model supported the dynamic hypothesis that the use of ‘aspirational’ separation forecasts have contributed to New Zealand Army workforce shortfalls during times of high labour demand. Additionally, framing proved to be a useful methodology for eliciting and interpreting the elusive concept of user confidence in this case study. This case study concludes that although the confidence criteria of model users are diverse, extensive and difficult to elicit; framing can be employed as an interpretive filter to ascertain the elements of user confidence.</p>

Leverage risks for supply chain robustness against corruption

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojing Liu ◽  
Tiru Arthanari ◽  
Yangyan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Supply Chain Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Supply Chain Robustness

PurposeThis paper examines the establishment of supply chain robustness against corruption by utilizing risk interactions.Design/methodology/approachBased on empirical results from the New Zealand dairy industry, a system dynamics model is established to explore the underlying relationships among variables.FindingsThe results show that although certain supply chain risks seem unrelated to corruption, their mitigation would help mitigate the impact of corruption due to risk interactions; and mitigation of some of the risks is more effective in mitigating the impact of corruption. Leverage risks have been defined and identified in this research, which expands the extant knowledge in reducing the impact of corruption on supply chains.Originality/valueThe research illustrates how the impact of corruption can be studied in an integrated way with dairy supply chain SD analysis. It is a pioneering study to mitigate the impact of corruption on supply chains from supply chain robustness.

Socioeconomic analysis of infectious diseases based on different scenarios using uncertain SEIAR system dynamics with effective subsystems and ANFIS

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeinab Rahimi Rise ◽  
Mohammad Mahdi Ershadi
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic impacts of infectious diseases in comparison with predicted gross domestic product (GDP) in future years could be beneficial for this aim along with predicted social impacts of infectious diseases in countries.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed uncertain SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic and removed) model evaluates the impacts of variables on different trends using scenario base analysis. This model considers different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks for sensitivity analysis. Besides, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to predict the GDP of countries and determine the economic impacts of infectious diseases. These proposed models can predict the future socioeconomic trends of infectious diseases in each country based on the available information to guide the decisions of government planners and policymakers.FindingsThe proposed uncertain SEIAR model predicts social impacts according to uncertain parameters and different coefficients appropriate to the scenarios. It analyzes the sensitivity and the effects of various parameters. A case study is designed in this paper about COVID-19 in a country. Its results show that the effect of transportation on COVID-19 is most sensitive and the contacts have a significant effect on infection. Besides, the future annual costs of COVID-19 are evaluated in different situations. Private transportation, contact behaviors and public transportation have significant impacts on infection, especially in the determined case study, due to its circumstance. Therefore, it is necessary to consider changes in society using flexible behaviors and laws based on the latest status in facing the COVID-19 epidemic.Practical implicationsThe proposed methods can be applied to conduct infectious diseases impacts analysis.Originality/valueIn this paper, a proposed uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model, related sensitivity analysis and ANFIS model are utilized to support different programs regarding policymaking and economic issues to face infectious diseases. The results could support the analysis of sensitivities, policies and economic activities.Highlights:A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

Improving services in a hybrid academic library system

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adetoun A. Oyelude ◽  
Christopher Olumuyiwa Ola ◽  
Ezekiel Adelere Adeniran
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Academic Library ◽  
Systems Dynamics ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Technology Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Technology Infrastructure ◽  
Library System ◽  
Management Capacity

Purpose This paper aims to describe a hybrid academic library system and to draw up a model of this system suggesting strategies and scenarios for achieving optimum performance of the system in a technology changing world. Design/methodology/approach The mixture of traditional or manual ways of carrying out library operations with new, modern, automated systems often brings about several problems. The problems are ones that can be tackled within the framework of having appropriate systems dynamics routines applied and also making use of personnel skilled in strategic management of hybrid library systems. Findings A system dynamics model for the management of the system is developed around the issues of personnel management, collection management, capacity building and provision of access to research materials, information technology infrastructure, forming of consortia and security in the system. Originality/value Recommendations are made as to which strategy/scenario or combinations of scenarios will provide lasting solutions to the problems recurring or likely to reoccur in a hybrid academic library system.

A system dynamics model to forecast the population aging in Iran

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 1216-1241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Vahidi Monfared ◽  
Alireza Moini
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Base Scenario

Purpose The last reformation in Iran’s population policy was announced inside “General Population Policy” (GPP) in 2013. One of the main objectives of the GPP is controlling population aging. The aim was to designing and evaluating different scenarios for achieving this objective. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, a system dynamics model was built from cohort age groups. The model simulated Iran’s population structure from 2000 to 2050. The system dynamics model was validated in 2000 till 2011 period (R2 = 94%). Data were extracted from the United Nations population division repository and represent a reducing trend in the fertility rate of Iran. This situation was named the “base” scenario. The simulation results for this scenario showed that Iran will face aging such that between 2000 and 2050 the median age will increase from 25 to 43 years. Based on these results, the base scenario could not achieve the GPP objective. So three alternative scenarios were designated: stabilization, increasing and hyper increasing. Findings The median age and the aging index are descending only in the hyper increasing scenario which means controlling aging. Therefore, the hyper increasing scenario is the only way to realize the GPP’s objective. To realize the hyper increasing scenario, it is essential to consider the total dependency ratio which shows the level of pressure on the workforce. Reducing this pressure increases the propensity to have more children (fertility index) and this is essential for maintaining high fertility rate. Originality/value The value of the research rests on a precise simulation model to forecast the population structure and aging. The research will serve as a guide for Iranian policymaker and support strong recommendations to bring the GPP along with supporting policies such as childbearing and child care assistance.

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