Small investors’ internet sentiment and return predictability

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antti Klemola
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Internet Search ◽  
Search Activity ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Bear Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel and new direct measurement of small investor sentiment in the equity market. The sentiment is based on the individual investors’ internet search activity. Design/methodology/approach The author measures unexpected changes in the small investor sentiment with AR (1) process, where the residuals capture the unexpected changes in small investor sentiment. The author employs vector autoregressive, Granger causality and linear regression models to estimate the association between the unexpected changes in small investor sentiment and future equity market returns. Findings An unexpected increase in the search popularity of the term bear market is negatively associated with the following week’s equity market returns. An unexpected increase in the spread (the difference in popularities between a bull market and a bear market) is positively associated with the following week’s equity market returns. The author finds that these effects are stronger for small-sized companies. Originality/value By author’s knowledge, the paper is the first that measures the small investor sentiment that is based on the internet search activity for keywords used in the American Association of Individual Investor’s (AAII) survey questions. The paper proposes an alternative small investor sentiment measure that captures the changes in small investor sentiment in more timely fashion than the AAII survey.

Investor sentiment and yield spread determinants: evidence from European markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 739-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Spyrou
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
European Markets

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the yield spread determinants for a sample of European markets in the light of the recent financial crisis. It utilises findings from two different strands in the literature: findings on bond spread determinants and findings on the effect of investor sentiment on equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The explanatory variables in the regression models proxy not only for economic fundamentals (e.g. economic activity, default risk, liquidity risk, general market conditions) but also for investor sentiment. A vector autoregressive approach is employed. Findings – The results indicate that fundamental variables are significant for the determination of the level of yield spreads, as suggested by previous studies. Local and international investor sentiment, however, both current and past, is also a statistically significant determinant for both the level and monthly changes of yield, especially during the crisis period 2007-2011. Research limitations/implications – The implication of this finding is significant for all parties involved: government officials, private lenders, EU/ECB/IMF officials, and market participants. Practical implications – Focusing solely on quantitative economic performance indicators may not have the desirable effect of reducing borrowing rates and facilitating the return to economic stability. Perhaps, reassuring and/or sending strong qualitative signals to financial markets may be as important. Involved agents may have to address not only technical financial issues but also the perception that market participants have about the proposed solutions to the crisis and eventually affect market sentiment. Originality/value – The issue of the effect of investor sentiment on government yield spreads during a crisis has not been investigated before.

Categorizing sentiment and its impact on REIT returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 958-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Huerta ◽  
Dave O. Jackson ◽  
Thanh Ngo
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Institutional Investor ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing ◽  
Multiple Sample ◽  
Security Pricing ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the impact of investor sentiment on real estate investment trust (REIT) returns using direct, survey-based measures of sentiment to categorize sentiment from institutional and individual investors. Design/methodology/approach – The authors provide a framework in which sentiment is classified into individual and institutional investor sentiment under the assumption that investors, depending on sophistication, react differently to the same set of information and will influence REIT prices differently. The authors employ a methodology that uses panel regression analyses and divides the sample of REITs into size and performance portfolios. Findings – The regression results suggest that institutional investor sentiment is positively and significantly related to REIT returns contemporaneously for multiple sample specifications. These results are consistent with high levels of institutional ownership in REITs. Results also suggest that individual investor sentiment only influences small capitalization and low-α portfolios. Originality/value – The findings provide more evidence on the influence of investor sentiment on security pricing even for highly regulated sectors such as the REIT industry. Investors may use changes in sentiment as signals for portfolio rebalancing and capital allocations.

Crisis facilitates policy change, not liberalization

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall L. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Crisis Events

Purpose Crisis events are windows of opportunity during which a country’s leaders may implement economic policy adjustments which change that country’s level of economic freedom and affect the local capital market. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between annual changes in an economic freedom index, six types of crises and equity market returns. Design/methodology/approach The author uses fixed-effects regressions on annual panel data for 69 countries during the period 2000-2010. Findings Banking, domestic debt and inflation crises decrease economic freedom, and an external debt crisis weakly relates to increases in economic freedom. Only banking crises relate to a change in economic freedom in the following year, suggesting that crisis-driven changes in economic freedom happen quickly. Gains in economic freedom are more likely to occur during periods of positive local and global equity returns. Preceding and contemporaneous to increases in economic freedom, a country’s equity market outperforms a global equity index, offering observers a leading indicator for economic policy change. Originality/value The author finds that crises coincide with decreases in economic freedom, while gains in economic freedom happen during periods of positive capital market sentiment. The absence of a relationship between one-year lagged crisis events and changes in economic freedom suggests prior research relating gains in economic freedom to a crisis occurring 5 or 10 years earlier is a relationship which is more complex, non-linear and specific to the selected data period or spurious. Furthermore, relative equity market returns are related to changes in economic freedom, suggesting that equity markets identify which countries have increased economic freedom, long before popular economic freedom indexes are published.

Diversification strategies and equity market performances

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burhan F. Yavas ◽  
Kathleen Grave ◽  
Demosthenes Vardiabasis
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Target Market ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the linkages among foreign direct investment (FDI – greenfield and mergers and acquisitions [M&A]) decisions and equity market returns and volatilities. The main premise is that FDI decisions by multinational enterprises (MNE) are influenced by risk and uncertainty indicated by equity market returns and volatilities in the destination (host) countries. This is so because the events on the stock markets in general and their volatilities in particular signal the vitality of the investment climate of the target market. Understanding volatility in capital markets is important for determining the cost of capital and for evaluating direct investment and asset allocation decisions. Design/methodology/approach Surveys and structured interviews were conducted with senior managers of 11 MNEs based in the USA to collect the data used in this study from November 2017 to October 2018. The paper investigates if FDI decisions of the MNE managers are influenced by risk and uncertainty indicated by equity market returns and volatilities. The paper endeavors to make a contribution to the IB literature in highlighting the role played by equity returns and volatilities in FDI decisions and therewith attempts to integrate finance (capital markets) with international business/strategic decision-making. Findings Capital market performances (returns and volatilities) were found to influence the country choice for location of production facilities (FDI – both greenfield and M&A decisions) as well as timing of the FDI by a MNE. In other words, the share of production capacity optimally located abroad and M&A activities are affected by capital market returns and volatilities.

Predicting the effect of Googling investor sentiment on Islamic stock market returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-193
Author(s):  
Yousra Trichilli ◽  
Mouna Boujelbène Abbes ◽  
Afif Masmoudi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the capability of the hidden Markov model using Googling investors’ sentiments to predict the dynamics of Islamic indexes’ returns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial markets from 2004 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a hidden Markov model based on the transition matrix to apprehend the relationship between investor’s sentiment and Islamic index returns. The proposed model facilitates capturing the uncertainties in Islamic market indexes and the possible effects of the dynamics of Islamic market on the persistence of these regimes or States. Findings The bearish state is the most persistent sentiment with the longest duration for all the MENA Islamic markets except for Jordan, Morocco and Qatar. In addition, the obtained results indicate that the effect of sentiment on predicting the future Islamic index returns is conditional on the MENA States. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each state indicates that the bullish and calm states are ideal for investing in Islamic indexes of Bahrain, Oman, Morocco, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. However, only the bullish state is ideal for investing Islamic indexes of Jordan, Egypt and Qatar. Research limitations/implications This paper has used data at a monthly frequency that can explain only short-term dynamics between Googling investor’s sentiment and the MENA Islamic stock market returns. Moreover, this work can be done on the stock markets while taking into account the specificity of each activity sector. Practical implications In fact, the findings of this paper are helpful for academics, analysts and practitioners, and more specifically for the Islamic MENA financial investors. Moreover, this study provides useful insights not only into the duration of the relationship between the indexes’ returns and the investors’ sentiments in the five states but also into the transition probabilities which have implications for how investors could be guided in their choice of future investment in a portfolio with Islamic indexes. Findings of this paper are important and valuable for policy-makers and investors. Thus, predicting the effect of Googling investors’ sentiment on the MENA Islamic stock market dynamics is important for portfolio diversification by domestic and international investors. Moreover, the results of this paper gave new insights into financial analysts about the dynamic relationship between Googling investors’ sentiment and Islamic stock market returns across market regimes. Therefore, the findings of this study might be useful for investors as they help them capture the unobservable dynamics of the changes in the investors’ sentiment regimes in the MENA financial markets to make successful investment decisions. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to use the hidden Markov model to examine changes in the Islamic index return dynamics across five market sentiment states, namely the depressed sentiment (S1), the bullish sentiment (S2), the bearish sentiment (S3), the calm sentiment (S4) and the bubble sentiment (S5).

Impact of behavioral factors on investors’ financial decisions: case of the Egyptian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noura Metawa ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Saad Metawa ◽  
M. Faisal Safa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Herd Behavior ◽  
Behavioral Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between investors’ demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level and experience) and their investment decisions through behavioral factors (sentiment, overconfidence, overreaction and underreaction and herd behavior) as mediator variables in the Egyptian stock market. Design/methodology/approach This paper collects data from a structured questionnaire survey carried out among 384 local Egyptian, foreign, institutional and individual investors. This paper used a partial multiple regression method to analyze the effect of investors’ demographic characteristics on investment decisions through behavioral factors as the mediator variable. Findings Investor sentiment, overreaction and underreaction, overconfidence and herd behavior significantly affect investment decisions. Also, age, gender and the level of education have significant positive effects on investment decisions by investors. Experience does not play a significant role in investment decisions, but as investors gain experience, they tend to overlook the emotional factors. Practical implications The findings of this paper would help to understand common behavioral patterns of investors and indicate a path toward the growth of the Egyptian stock market. Originality/value There is a lack of research in behavioral finance covering Middle East and North African markets. This paper attempts to fulfill the gap by analyzing behavioral factors in the Egyptian market.

Market moods: an investor sentiment event study

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 488-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan French
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
New Information ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Event Study Methodology

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide insight to practitioners who wish to forecast market returns based on event occurrences.Design/methodology/approachUsing 64 distinct events that reoccurred from 2007 to 2016 in six different nations of both developing and developed economies, this study used an event study methodology to test whether or not sentiment impacted market returns.FindingsThis study found that investor sentiment did impact market returns. Furthermore, events that were in developed economies or were negative impacted the market returns more than events that are in developing economies or positive. The study also provides important information on the speed of price adjustment to new information. The events selected include festive holidays, bombings, natural disasters and sports matches, among other events which had been found to alter mood. This paper also found no empirical difference between using the statistical mean and economic capital asset pricing models. However, the Wilcoxon rank test did provide more significant events than the more conservative Corrado rank test.Originality/valueMost comprehensive investor sentiment impact on market returns paper using an event study methodology. The results have implications for those who wish to forecast market returns based on event occurrences.

Personality traits and investor sentiment

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Kent Baker ◽  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Nisha Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Big Five ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Big Five Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper examines the relation between the Big Five model of personality traits and behavioral biases (overconfidence, disposition effect, anchoring, representativeness, metal accounting, emotional bias and herding) of Indian individual investors when making investment decisions. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a structured questionnaire to obtain responses from 515 stock investors in India between August 2016 and January 2017. Based on components identified through factor analysis, the authors use structural equation modeling to examine the effect of specific personality traits. Findings The findings indicate a significant association between the traits of neuroticism, extroversion and conscientiousness as well as behavioral biases of individual investors. Openness has a significant relation with only mental accounting and the agreeableness trait has no relation with the behavioral biases examined. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that understanding investor personality differences and investment psychology can help financial advisors and wealth managers modify products and services to better suit client needs. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of the Big Five model of personality traits on various behavioral biases among Indian investors.

scholarly journals The Nonlinear Relationship between Investor Sentiment, Stock Return, and Volatility

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Gang He ◽  
Shuzhen Zhu ◽  
Haifeng Gu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Space Effect

Based on the DSSW model, we analyze the nonlinear impact mechanism of investor sentiment on stock return and volatility by adjusting its hypothesis in Chinese stock market. We examine the relationship between investor sentiment, stock return, and volatility by applying OLS regression and quantile regression. Our empirical results show that the effects of investor sentiment on stock market return are asymmetric. There is “Freedman effect” in Chinese stock market, but only optimistic sentiment has a significant nonlinear impact on stock market returns when the stock market is a balanced market or a bear market. Meanwhile, “create the space effect” does exist in Chinese stock market too. It only exists when the market is in equilibrium, and only pessimistic sentiment has the nonlinear effect on stock market volatility.

scholarly journals Islamic calendar anomalies: Pakistani practitioners’ perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
Anwar Halari ◽  
Christine Helliar ◽  
David M. Power ◽  
Nongnuch Tantisantiwong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Calendar Anomalies

Purpose Studies on Islamic calendar anomalies in financial markets tend to apply quantitative analysis to historic share prices. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research investigating whether the participants of such markets are aware of these anomalies and whether these anomalies affect their investment practice. Or is it a case that these practitioners are completely unaware of the anomalies present in these markets and are missing out on profitable opportunities? The purpose of this paper is to analyse the views of influential participants within the Pakistani Stock Market. Design/methodology/approach The study documents the findings for 19 face-to-face semi-structured interviews conducted with brokers, regulators and high-net-worth individual investors in Karachi. Findings The paper’s major findings indicate that the participants believed that anomalies were present in the stock market and market participants were actively attempting to exploit these anomalies for abnormal gains. Interviewees suggested that predictable patterns can be identified in certain Islamic months (Muharram, Safar, Ramadan and Zil Hajj). The most common pattern highlighted by the interviews related to the month of Ramadan. Furthermore, interviewees mentioned the influence of the “Memon” community in the Pakistani Stock Market. Respondents also suggested that investor sentiment played an important role in influencing the stock market prices and trading patterns. Originality/value Because all the prior studies investigating Islamic calendar anomalies in Muslim-majority countries adopted quantitative method using secondary data, the current investigation is of particular value, as it focuses on the qualitative analyses and reports the views of market participants. This allows to fully explore the topic under investigation and to draw robust conclusions.

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