scholarly journals Islamic calendar anomalies: Pakistani practitioners’ perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
Anwar Halari ◽  
Christine Helliar ◽  
David M. Power ◽  
Nongnuch Tantisantiwong

Purpose Studies on Islamic calendar anomalies in financial markets tend to apply quantitative analysis to historic share prices. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research investigating whether the participants of such markets are aware of these anomalies and whether these anomalies affect their investment practice. Or is it a case that these practitioners are completely unaware of the anomalies present in these markets and are missing out on profitable opportunities? The purpose of this paper is to analyse the views of influential participants within the Pakistani Stock Market. Design/methodology/approach The study documents the findings for 19 face-to-face semi-structured interviews conducted with brokers, regulators and high-net-worth individual investors in Karachi. Findings The paper’s major findings indicate that the participants believed that anomalies were present in the stock market and market participants were actively attempting to exploit these anomalies for abnormal gains. Interviewees suggested that predictable patterns can be identified in certain Islamic months (Muharram, Safar, Ramadan and Zil Hajj). The most common pattern highlighted by the interviews related to the month of Ramadan. Furthermore, interviewees mentioned the influence of the “Memon” community in the Pakistani Stock Market. Respondents also suggested that investor sentiment played an important role in influencing the stock market prices and trading patterns. Originality/value Because all the prior studies investigating Islamic calendar anomalies in Muslim-majority countries adopted quantitative method using secondary data, the current investigation is of particular value, as it focuses on the qualitative analyses and reports the views of market participants. This allows to fully explore the topic under investigation and to draw robust conclusions.

Author(s):  
Noura Metawa ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Saad Metawa ◽  
M. Faisal Safa

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between investors’ demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level and experience) and their investment decisions through behavioral factors (sentiment, overconfidence, overreaction and underreaction and herd behavior) as mediator variables in the Egyptian stock market. Design/methodology/approach This paper collects data from a structured questionnaire survey carried out among 384 local Egyptian, foreign, institutional and individual investors. This paper used a partial multiple regression method to analyze the effect of investors’ demographic characteristics on investment decisions through behavioral factors as the mediator variable. Findings Investor sentiment, overreaction and underreaction, overconfidence and herd behavior significantly affect investment decisions. Also, age, gender and the level of education have significant positive effects on investment decisions by investors. Experience does not play a significant role in investment decisions, but as investors gain experience, they tend to overlook the emotional factors. Practical implications The findings of this paper would help to understand common behavioral patterns of investors and indicate a path toward the growth of the Egyptian stock market. Originality/value There is a lack of research in behavioral finance covering Middle East and North African markets. This paper attempts to fulfill the gap by analyzing behavioral factors in the Egyptian market.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. King ◽  
Timothy J. Fogarty

PurposeMuch in accounting research depends upon equity valuation. Too often, what the stock of publicly traded companies trade at is taken at its face value. Knowing that valuation is a function of performance relative to consensus security analyst expectations, more needs to be known about how these expectations are created and changed. The paper aims to assert that the guidance provided by top-level company management is important to the work product of analysts. The paper develops information from managers involved in these interactions.Design/methodology/approachSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 31 high-level executives employed by large USA companies in several industries. What those companies provided was interpreted through the theoretical lens of institutional theory and amounts to a qualitative content analysis approach to the subject.FindingsThe authors find that institutional theory well describes the important features of analyst guidance. Participants are aware of the broad societal interest that exists in the outcome of the guidance process. The participants accept the need for independent analyst opinions about their companies and their future prospects. In many ways, executives provide analysts more than just raw information and employ strategic structuring for analysts to produce expectations that will allow their companies a favorable pathway to future success as such is judged by the markets. The result is understood as being in the best interests of all market participants, even if it disproportionately benefits current corporate leadership.Research limitations/implicationsResults are dependent upon the interview process, needing the correct questions to be asked and the willingness of interviewees to speak their lived truth. The paper calls into question traditional capital markets studies that evaluate quantitative relationships between projected accounting balances and subsequent stock market prices as a literal truth or as the result of scientific calculation.Practical implicationsMarket participants should be somewhat more skeptical about companies that are routinely able to meet analyst expectations. To a large extent, such displays do not just happen but instead are manufactured to take place by virtual of a careful dance that is mindful of excesses on several sides.Social implicationsThe antagonistic interests of two important groups in the stock market is actually an unrecognized symbiotic dependency that prioritizes continued permission.Originality/valueThe accounting literature is very dependent on the work product of analysts. This is a rare opportunity to peak behind the curtain of their expertise in a critical fashion. The paper breaks ranks with the literature by trying to understand the thinking behind the narratives of capital market participants.


2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (11) ◽  
pp. 1441-1459
Author(s):  
Haritha P.H. ◽  
Rashmi Uchil

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether individual investor sentiment and its factors influence investment decision-making behavior in the Indian stock market. The study contributes to the novel conceptual framework that integrates the impact of investor sentiment and outlines the role of its factors (herding, media factor, advocate recommendation and social interaction) during the investment decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, data were collected using a structured questionnaire survey from Indian individual investors. It uses self-reported sources of information collected via a survey of individual investors and estimated the linkage via path modeling. The collected data were analyzed using partial least square structural equation modeling to examine the relationship between the construct, namely, herding, media, advocate recommendation and social interaction with investor sentiment and investment decision-making. Findings The study shows that herding, media factor, advocate recommendation and social interaction significantly and positively influence the investor sentiment. Among all the factors, social interaction has the lowest influence on investor sentiment. The study also reveals that investor sentiment has a positive impact on investment decision-making. Practical implications The study provides valuable insights for the individual investors, financial advisors, policymakers and other stakeholders. Knowledge of behavioral finance would enhance the decision-making capabilities of individual investors in the stock market. Thus, the study calls for the need to increase awareness among Indian investors about behavioral finance and its usefulness in investment decision-making. The paper also sheds light upon the influence of investor sentiment and its antecedents on investment decision-making. The study confirms that the investor relies on their sentiment while making investment decisions. Hence, the stakeholders in the stock market should focus on investor sentiment and other psychological aspects of individual investors as well. Originality/value There are very few studies that deal with the behavioral aspects of individual investors in an emerging market context. The study mainly focuses on the antecedent of investor sentiment and its influence on investment decision-making in the Indian stock market. To the best of authors’ knowledge, the present study unique nature that examines the impact of the antecedent of investor sentiment which was not explored in the Indian context and investment decision-making of individual investors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radeef Chundakkadan

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the impact of the light-a-lamp event that occurred in India during the COVID-19 lockdown. This event happened across the country, and millions of people participated in it. We link this event to the stock market through investor sentiment and misattribution bias. We find a 9% hike in the market return on the post-event day. The effect is heterogeneous in terms of beta, downside risk, volatility, and financial distress. We also find an increase (decrease) in long-term bond yields (price), which together suggests that market participants demanded risky assets in the post-event day.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ankita Bhatia ◽  
Arti Chandani ◽  
Rizwana Atiq ◽  
Mita Mehta ◽  
Rajiv Divekar

Purpose The purpose of this study is to gauge the awareness and perception of Indian individual investors about a new fintech innovation known as robo-advisors in the wealth management scenario. Robo-advisors are comprehensive automated online advisory platforms that help investors in managing wealth by recommending portfolio allocations, which are based on certain algorithms. Design/methodology/approach This is a phenomenological qualitative study that used five focussed group discussions to gather the stipulated information. Purposive sampling was used and the sample comprised investors who actively invest in the Indian stock market. A semi-structured questionnaire and homogeneous discussions were used for this study. Discussion time for all the groups was 203 min. One of the authors moderated the discussions and translated the audio recordings verbatim. Subsequently, content analysis was carried out by using the NVIVO 12 software (QSR International) to derive different themes. Findings Factors such as cost-effectiveness, trust, data security, behavioural biases and sentiments of the investors were observed as crucial points which significantly impacted the perception of the investors. Furthermore, several suggestions on different ways to enhance the awareness levels of investors were brought up by the participants during the discussions. It was observed that some investors perceive robo-advisors as only an alternative for fund/wealth managers/brokers for quantitative analysis. Also, they strongly believe that human intervention is necessary to gauge the emotions of the investors. Hence, at present, robo-advisors for the Indian stock market, act only as a supplementary service rather than a substitute for financial advisors. Research limitations/implications Due to the explorative nature of the study and limited participants, the findings of the study cannot be generalised to the overall population. Future research is imperative to study the dynamic nature of artificial intelligence (AI) theories and investigate whether they are able to capture the sentiments of individual investors and human sentiments impacting the market. Practical implications This study gives an insight into the awareness, perception and opinion of the investors about robo-advisory services. From a managerial perspective, the findings suggest that additional attention needs to be devoted to the adoption and inculcation of AI and machine learning theories while building algorithms or logic to come up with effective models. Many investors expressed discontent with the current design of risk profiles of the investors. This helps to provide feedback for developers and designers of robo-advisors to include advanced and detailed programming to be able to do risk profiling in a more comprehensive and precise manner. Social implications In the future, robo-advisors will change the wealth management scenario. It is well-established that data is the new oil for all businesses in the present times. Technologies such as robo-advisor, need to evolve further in terms of predicting unstructured data, improvising qualitative analysis techniques to include the ability to gauge emotions of investors and markets in real-time. Additionally, the behavioural biases of both the programmers and the investors need to be taken care of simultaneously while designing these automated decision support systems. Originality/value This study fulfils an identified gap in the literature regarding the investors’ perception of new fintech innovation, that is, robo-advisors. It also clarifies the confusion about the awareness level of robo-advisors amongst Indian individual investors by examining their attitudes and by suggesting innovations for future research. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the awareness, perception and attitudes of individual investors towards robo-advisors.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Tariqul Islam Khan ◽  
Siow-Hooi Tan ◽  
Lee-Lee Chong ◽  
Gerald Guan Gan Goh

PurposeThis study examines how the importance of external investment environment factors affect stock market perception, and how stock market perception affects stock investments after stock market crash witnessed by individual investors in one of the emerging stock markets.Design/methodology/approachA cross-sectional survey was administrated among 223 individual investors who experienced stock market crash in 2010–2011 in Bangladesh, and the proposed model was tested by the partial least squares-structural equation modeling PLS-SEM model.FindingsFindings show that the importance of Bangladesh's stock market performance, government policy, economic issues and neighboring country's stock market performance has effects on investors' stock market perception. This perception, in turn, decreases monthly stock trading and short-term investment horizon. The findings further show the mediating effect of stock market perception.Practical implicationsInvestors need to carefully consider the external investment environment when they form their stock market perception, as this perception drives stock investments. Analogously, regulators should ensure releasing timely and updated statistics on external investment factors.Originality/valueAddressing those investors who encountered stock market crash, a set of external investment environment issues, stock market perception and stock investments are new in the literature.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.


Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilpa B L ◽  
Shambhavi B R

PurposeStock market forecasters are focusing to create a positive approach for predicting the stock price. The fundamental principle of an effective stock market prediction is not only to produce the maximum outcomes but also to reduce the unreliable stock price estimate. In the stock market, sentiment analysis enables people for making educated decisions regarding the investment in a business. Moreover, the stock analysis identifies the business of an organization or a company. In fact, the prediction of stock prices is more complex due to high volatile nature that varies a large range of investor sentiment, economic and political factors, changes in leadership and other factors. This prediction often becomes ineffective, while considering only the historical data or textural information. Attempts are made to make the prediction more precise with the news sentiment along with the stock price information.Design/methodology/approachThis paper introduces a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, the stock data and news sentiment data are also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator-based features like moving average convergence divergence (MACD), relative strength index (RSI) and moving average (MA) are extracted. At the same time, the news data are processed to determine the sentiments by certain processes like (1) pre-processing, where keyword extraction and sentiment categorization process takes place; (2) keyword extraction, where WordNet and sentiment categorization process is done; (3) feature extraction, where Proposed holoentropy based features is extracted. (4) Classification, deep neural network is used that returns the sentiment output. To make the system more accurate on predicting the sentiment, the training of NN is carried out by self-improved whale optimization algorithm (SIWOA). Finally, optimized deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict the stock that considers the features of stock data and sentiment results from news data. Here, the weights of DBN are tuned by the new SIWOA.FindingsThe performance of the adopted scheme is computed over the existing models in terms of certain measures. The stock dataset includes two companies such as Reliance Communications and Relaxo Footwear. In addition, each company consists of three datasets (a) in daily option, set start day 1-1-2019 and end day 1-12-2020, (b) in monthly option, set start Jan 2000 and end Dec 2020 and (c) in yearly option, set year 2000. Moreover, the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was computed over the traditional classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM; also, it was compared over the existing optimization algorithms like NN + DBN + MFO, NN + DBN + CSA, NN + DBN + WOA and NN + DBN + PSO, correspondingly. Further, the performance was calculated based on the learning percentage that ranges from 60, 70, 80 and 90 in terms of certain measures like MAE, MSE and RMSE for six datasets. On observing the graph, the MAE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 91.67, 80, 91.11 and 93.33% superior to the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively for dataset 1. The proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA method holds minimum MAE value of (∼0.21) at learning percentage 80 for dataset 1; whereas, the traditional models holds the value for NN + DBN + CSA (∼1.20), NN + DBN + MFO (∼1.21), NN + DBN + PSO (∼0.23) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼0.25), respectively. From the table, it was clear that the RMSRE of the proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 3.14, 1.08, 1.38 and 15.28% better than the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively, for dataset 6. In addition, he MSE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA method attain lower values (∼54944.41) for dataset 2 than other existing schemes like NN + DBN + CSA(∼9.43), NN + DBN + MFO (∼56728.68), NN + DBN + PSO (∼2.95) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼56767.88), respectively.Originality/valueThis paper has introduced a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, along with the stock data and news sentiment data were also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator based features like MACD, RSI and MA are extracted. Therefore, the proposed work was said to be much appropriate for stock market prediction.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1001-1018
Author(s):  
Marianne Wollf Lundholt ◽  
Ole Have Jørgensen ◽  
Bodil Stilling Blichfeldt

Purpose This study aims to contribute to an increased understanding of intra-organizational city brand resistance by identifying and discussing different types of counter-narratives emerging from the political and administrative arenas. Design/methodology/approach The empirical material consists of secondary data as well as six in-depth semi-structured interviews with Danish mayors and city managers in three different municipalities in Denmark. Findings Intra-organizational counter-narratives differ from inter-organizational counter-narratives but resemble a number of issues known from extra-organizational resistance. Still, significant differences are found within the political arena: lack of ownership, competition for resources and political conflicts. Lack of ownership, internal competition for resources and distrust of motives play an important role within the administrative arena. Mayors are aware of the needs for continued political support for branding projects but projects are nonetheless realized despite resistance if there is a political majority for it. Research limitations/implications This study points to the implications of city brand resistance and counter-narratives emerging from the “inside” of the political and administrative arenas in the city, here defined as “intra-organizational counter-narratives”. Practical implications It is suggested that politicians and municipality staff should be systematically addressed as individual and unique audiences and considered as important as citizens in the brand process. Originality/value So far little attention has been paid to internal stakeholders within the municipal organization and their impact on the city branding process approached from a narrative perspective.


2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 739-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Spyrou

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the yield spread determinants for a sample of European markets in the light of the recent financial crisis. It utilises findings from two different strands in the literature: findings on bond spread determinants and findings on the effect of investor sentiment on equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The explanatory variables in the regression models proxy not only for economic fundamentals (e.g. economic activity, default risk, liquidity risk, general market conditions) but also for investor sentiment. A vector autoregressive approach is employed. Findings – The results indicate that fundamental variables are significant for the determination of the level of yield spreads, as suggested by previous studies. Local and international investor sentiment, however, both current and past, is also a statistically significant determinant for both the level and monthly changes of yield, especially during the crisis period 2007-2011. Research limitations/implications – The implication of this finding is significant for all parties involved: government officials, private lenders, EU/ECB/IMF officials, and market participants. Practical implications – Focusing solely on quantitative economic performance indicators may not have the desirable effect of reducing borrowing rates and facilitating the return to economic stability. Perhaps, reassuring and/or sending strong qualitative signals to financial markets may be as important. Involved agents may have to address not only technical financial issues but also the perception that market participants have about the proposed solutions to the crisis and eventually affect market sentiment. Originality/value – The issue of the effect of investor sentiment on government yield spreads during a crisis has not been investigated before.


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