Population composition and financial markets: evidence from Japan

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-524
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Kawakatsu ◽  
Mikiko Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Population Composition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
Post War

Purpose This study aims to examine the relation between population composition and financial market variables in post-war Japan. Design/methodology/approach Cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied to annual data for the period 1948-2015. Findings Accounting for nonstationarity, this study finds long-run equilibrium relations between real financial price (stock and house) indices and the proportion of population in the prime earning (45-64) or retirement (65+) age. Granger causality tests that account for possibly nonstationary variables find some evidence of dynamic causation running from the 45-64 cohort to the real financial price indices. No such evidence is found for the 65+ cohort. Originality/value This study complements the existing literature primarily based on US data with analysis of Japanese data that has some unique population composition features.

GDP, energy consumption and financial development in Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Magazzino
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto

Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship among energy consumption, real income, financial development and oil prices in Italy over the period 1960-2014. Design/methodology/approach Different econometric techniques – such as the General Methods of Moment (GMM) or the AutoRegressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds test – are usually used in the empirical analysis. Moreover, both the Toda and Yamamoto causality tests and the Granger causality tests are applied to the data. Findings The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). The ARDL bounds F-test reveals an evidence of a long-run relationship among the four variables at 1% significance level. Moreover, an increase in real GDP and oil prices has a significant effect on energy consumption in the long run. The coefficients of estimated error correction term are also negative and statistically significant. In addition, the paper explores the causal relationship between the variables by using a VAR framework, with Toda and Yamamoto but also Granger causality tests, within both multivariate and bivariate systems. The findings indicate that energy consumption is affected by real GDP. Originality/value The study also filled the literature gap of applying ARDL technique to examine this relevant issue for Italy.

scholarly journals Do Exports lead Economic Output in Five Asian Countries? A Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Jiayi Huang ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This paper examines the relationship between exports and economic output for five major Asian economies using annual data in an expanded data set and employing unit root and cointegration analysis. It employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that treats all variables in the modified production function as potentially endogenous and then determines via weak exogeneity tests whether some of the key variables can be treated as exogenous (omitted from the system). Johansen cointegration tests find a positive long-run relationship between exports and economic output for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Cointegration tests find a negative long-run relationship between exports and economic output for India. The Block Granger causality tests and impulse response functions for the Philippines and Singapore find stronger causality from exports to economic output rather than the reverse. Granger causality tests in level form also find significant causality from exports to economic output. No causality exists between exports and economic output in the case of India. Exports seem to promote economic growth in three of the four countries that have cointegrated data, which supports the exports-led growth hypothesis found in some of the extant literature. The paper does not find cointegration for China because the variables are integrated of different orders from I(0) to I(2). 

THE LINKAGE BETWEEN EXPORT AND INCOME: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUHUL A. SALIM ◽  
MOHAMMAD A. HOSSAIN
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Expansion ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This article empirically re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis in the context of Bangladesh using the quarterly data from 1973:1 to 2005:4. The standard time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and Granger causality tests within the error correction modelling (ECM) are used for this purpose. The results from cointegration analysis suggest that there is stable long-run relationship between exports and income and the results from Granger causality test based on the ECM shows unidirectional causal relationship between exports and income. Thus, these results validate the country's export expansion programs to achieve long-run income growth.

Do agriculture-based economies mitigate CO2 emissions?

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 638-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javaid Ahmad Dar ◽  
Mohammad Asif
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

Purpose This study aims to fill the gap in income-environment literature by adding agricultural contribution to the nexus. The authors investigate the short-run and long-run impact of agricultural contribution, renewable energy consumption, real income, trade liberalisation and urbanisation on carbon emissions for a balanced panel of five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries spanning the period 1990-2013. Design/methodology/approach Pedroni and Kao cointegration techniques have been used to test the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. The directions of causal relationships have been verified using Granger causality tests. Further, the long-run parameters of the baseline equation have been estimated by using the fully modified ordinary least squares, the technique developed by Pedroni, (2001a) for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Findings The result reveals that agricultural contribution and renewable energy consumption improve environmental quality in the long run, while urbanisation and per capita real income degrade it. The study did not find any evidence of “pollution heaven hypothesis” in the selected countries. The Granger causality tests confirm bidirectional causality between carbon emissions and income and between carbon emissions and urbanisation. In addition, there is unidirectional causality running from agricultural contribution to renewable energy consumption. Originality/value This is the only study to investigate the role of agriculture sector in carbon mitigation from a panel of South Asian economies. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is also the first study to test the applicability of “pollution heaven hypothesis” for SAARC countries.

Bank lending and housing prices in Sweden

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 498-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Öhman ◽  
Darush Yazdanfar
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger causal link between bank lending and housing prices. Design/methodology/approach Several econometric methods, including Granger causality tests based on a vector error correction model, were applied to analyse monthly time series data in the Swedish context. The data cover bank lending, apartment prices, villa prices, mortgage rates and the consumer price index from September 2005 to October 2013. Findings The results indicate that bank lending and housing prices are cointegrated. According to Granger causality tests, bidirectional relationships exist between bank lending and each of apartment and villa prices, confirming the financial accelerator mechanism. However, earlier shocks arising from housing prices themselves account for the greatest variation in future prices. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first analysis of the causal link between bank lending and the housing market in terms of apartment and villa prices in the Swedish context.

Testing tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos?

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phouphet Kyophilavong ◽  
John Luke Gallup ◽  
Teerawat Charoenrat ◽  
Kenji Nozaki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos. Design/methodology/approach The authors test the tourism-led growth hypothesis using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimation (Pesaran et al., 2001) and Granger causality tests. Findings The results of this paper show that when tourism is forcing variable, there is no long-run relationship between tourism development and economic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates that there is a uni-directional causality running from economic growth in tourism. Social implications The empirical results and policy recommendation may be useful for other small developing countries. Originality/value This study is the first study to investigate the relationship between tourism development and growth in Laos, using a relatively new econometric approach – ARDL bound testing.

scholarly journals Infrastructure Investment as a Panacea for Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Granger Causality Tests Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Cyprian Clement Abur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This paper employed Granger causality tests amid infrastructure spending, economic growth, and employment in Nigeria for the period 1960-2017 using vector autoregression (VAR) model. The result showed a strong causality between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Findings of the study shows a strong underlying relationship between e infrastructure investment and job creation. Economic growth seems to be the key drivers of government jobs and that the private sector jobs drives growth, however, public jobs have not been able to translates into additional jobs in the economy. The bounds test results specify the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship between infrastructure investment, economic growth, job creation and output thereby providing a theoretical underpinning for the empirical results.

Remittances, electricity consumption and electric power losses in Jamaica

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anupam Das ◽  
Adian McFarlane
Keyword(s):  
Electric Power ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Power Losses ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of remittance inflows (remittances) on electricity consumption and electric power losses in Jamaica.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use annual data from 1976 to 2014 and apply vector error correction modelling, Granger causality testing and impulse response analysis.FindingsFirst, the authors find that there is co-integration between remittances and the energy variables, namely electricity consumption and electric power losses. Second, short-run Granger causality exists between the energy variables and remittances. This causality is bidirectional between the energy variables and positive changes in remittances, but it is unidirectional running from the energy variables to negative movements in remittances. Third, the authors find that in the long-run remittances have a negative relationship with electric power losses and a positive relationship with the consumption of electricity.Practical implicationsFindings from this paper will help to elucidate the relationship between electricity consumption, and electric power losses, and remittances.Social implicationsThe problem of electric power losses is acute in Jamaica and it is mostly due to theft. At the same time, Jamaica receives significant remittances. Social policy could have a role to encourage the use of remittances to help stem the theft of electricity.Originality/valueThis is the first study that examines the relationships between remittances, electricity consumption and electric power losses.

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