Improving Forecasts of the EGARCH Model Using EMD and K-means Clustering

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Tian ◽  
Yixiang Tian
Keyword(s):  
Egarch Model

scholarly journals Asymmetry and Leverage with News Impact Curve Perspective in Australian Stock Returns’ Volatility during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 314
Author(s):  
Najam Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Saqib Manzoor ◽  
Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
News Shocks ◽  
Australian Health ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Garch Model

This paper studies the effect of COVID-19 on the volatility of Australian stock returns and the effect of negative and positive news (shocks) by investigating the asymmetric nature of the shocks and leverage impact on volatility. We employ a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and extend the analysis using the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to capture asymmetry and allegedly leverage. We proxy the news related to the negative effect of COVID-19 on the Australian health system and its economy as bad news, and on the other hand, measures taken by government economic stimulus packages through their monetary and fiscal policies as good news. The S&P ASX200 (ASX-200) index is used as a proxy to the Australian stock market, and we use value-weighted returns of the stocks listed on ASX-200 for the period 27 January 2020 to 29 December 2020. The empirical results suggest the EGARCH model fits better in capturing asymmetry and leverage than the GARCH model in estimating the volatility of the Australian stock returns. However, another interesting finding is that the EGARCH model with volatility equation without news demonstrates a larger (smaller) leverage effect of the negative (positive) shocks on the conditional volatility compared to its variant with the news.

RESPONSE OF STOCK MARKET DURING COVID-19 AND 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM BRICS NATIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
SANJEEV KUMAR ◽  
JASPREET KAUR ◽  
MOSAB I. TABASH ◽  
DANG K. TRAN ◽  
RAJ S DHANKAR
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to examine the response of stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic on prominent stock markets of the BRICS nation and compare it with the 2008 financial crisis by employing the GARCH and EGARCH model. First, average and variance of stock returns are tested for differences before and after the pandemic, t-test and F-test were applied. Further, OLS regression was applied to study the impact of COVID-19 on the standard deviation of returns using daily data of total cases, total deaths, and returns of the indices from the date on which the first case was reported till June 2020. Second, GARCH and EGARCH models are employed to compare the impact of COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis on the stock market volatility by using the data of respective stock indices for the period 2005–2020. The results suggest that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases and reported death cases hurt stock markets of the five countries except for South Africa in the latter case. The findings of the GARCH and EGARCH model indicate that for India and Russia, the financial crisis of 2008 has caused more stock volatility whereas stock markets of China, Brazil, and South Africa have been more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has practical implications for investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, regulatory institutions, and policymakers as it provides an understanding of stock market behavior in response to a major global crisis and helps them in taking decisions considering the risk of these events.

scholarly journals Which global stock indices trigger stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market? Evidence using a bivariate analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuan-Min Wang ◽  
Hung-Cheng Lai
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Bivariate Egarch Model ◽  
Contagion Risk

This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the correlation contagion test and Dungey et al.?s (2005) contagion test, we find contagion effects between the Vietnamese and four other stock markets, namely Japan, Singapore, China, and the US. Second, we show that the Japanese stock market causes stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market compared to the stock markets of China, Singapore, and the US. Finally, we show that the Chinese and US stock markets cause weaker contagion effects in the Vietnamese stock market because of stronger interdependence effects between the former two markets.

scholarly journals Improving Value-at-Risk Estimation from the Normal EGARCH Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahsa Gorji ◽  
Rasoul Sajjad
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Egarch Model

scholarly journals How Does Financial Sector Reacts After Special Events? An Event Study Analysis of Tunisia after the Revolution of 2011.

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 584-599
Author(s):  
Amira KADDOUR ◽  
Mourad ZMAMI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Special Events ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Using an event study analysis, we aim to investigate the impact of political, economic, social and terrorism events, on the Tunisian financial sector, over the period of the Tunisian Revolution; from (12)2010 to (04)2014. Based on a daily data analysis using three selected variables ; Sectoral index of performance of Tunisian banks ,Index of Tunisian stock market and the exchange rate Euro/ Dinar,  the EGARCH model results have highlighted that general events decrease the return of our variables, and increase their volatility. More, results have shown that stock market is very sensitive to political and terrorism events, bad economic events increase the volatility of the exchange rate, and decrease the performance of banking sector. Political events remain the more important component, they affect negatively all the endogenous variables; coefficients in the mean equation show an important decline in term of the return of banking sector ,the stock market and the exchange rate.

Volatility dynamics of Malaysian listed property companies within the Asian public property markets by using a switching regime approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-39
Author(s):  
Mohammad Muzzammil Zekri ◽  
Muhammad Najib Razali
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Property ◽  
Switching Regime ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
Property Markets

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamic of volatility of Malaysian listed property companies within pan-Asian public property markets based on different volatility perspective over the past 18 years, especially during the global financial crisis (GFC). Design/methodology/approach This study uses several statistical methods and formulas for analysing the dynamic of volatility of Malaysian listed property companies such as exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Markov-switching (MS) EGARCH. The MS-EGARCH model provides new insights on the volatility dynamics of Malaysian listed property companies compared to conventional volatility modelling techniques, particularly EGARCH. Additionally, this paper will analyse the volatility movement based on three different sub-periods such as pre-GFC, GFC and post-GFC. Findings The findings reveal that the markets perform differently under different volatility conditions. Moreover, the application of MS-EGARCH provides a different view on the volatility dynamics compared to the conventional EGARCH model, as MS-EGARCH provides more comprehensive findings, especially during extreme market conditions. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on the dynamics of Malaysian listed property companies within pan-Asian countries, as the approach for assessing the volatility performance based on different volatility conditions is less explored by previous researchers.

Forecasting VaR using realized EGARCH model with skewness and kurtosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 101090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyu Wu ◽  
Michelle Xia ◽  
Huanming Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Egarch Model ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis

scholarly journals A Study of the Relative Stock Market Performance of Companies Recognized for Supporting Gender Equality Policies and Practices

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3558
Author(s):  
Leonardo Badea ◽  
Daniel Ştefan Armeanu ◽  
Dan Costin Nițescu ◽  
Valentin Murgu ◽  
Iulian Panait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
High Level ◽  
Daily Returns

This paper explores the relative stock market performance of well-diversified gender equality equity indices in comparison with the overall market, taking both a cross-sectoral and a financial sector approach, for the period January 2017 to March 2020, with a sample of 11 indices and 834 daily observations, and using several different statistical and econometric methods. Our results show a high level of dynamic conditional correlation of daily returns among the gender equality and the overall indices. We also found comparable levels of conditional volatility (resulting from an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH)model) and an elevated degree of synchronization of the volatility regimes (identified by a Markov switching model). Calibrating simple linear quantile regressions, we found that the value of the slope coefficients of the hypothetical linear relationship between the gender equality indices and the overall market indices are close to one, and relatively stable in relation with the value of the quantile. Using separate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models for the cross-sectoral indices and for the financial sector indices, we found only very little evidence of causality and spill-over effects. Based on these results, we argue that the daily returns of the gender equality indices exhibited very similar characteristics with the daily returns of the overall market indices. In our interpretation, this could mean that, limited to our sample and methods of investigation, there were not significant differences in the investors’ preferences towards the equity issued by public companies committed to supporting gender equality, in comparison with their approach towards listed equity in general. It could also mean that investors do not yet anticipate the significantly different financial performance of listed companies stemming from their approach towards gender equality.

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