scholarly journals How Does Financial Sector Reacts After Special Events? An Event Study Analysis of Tunisia after the Revolution of 2011.

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 584-599
Author(s):  
Amira KADDOUR ◽  
Mourad ZMAMI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Special Events ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Using an event study analysis, we aim to investigate the impact of political, economic, social and terrorism events, on the Tunisian financial sector, over the period of the Tunisian Revolution; from (12)2010 to (04)2014. Based on a daily data analysis using three selected variables ; Sectoral index of performance of Tunisian banks ,Index of Tunisian stock market and the exchange rate Euro/ Dinar,  the EGARCH model results have highlighted that general events decrease the return of our variables, and increase their volatility. More, results have shown that stock market is very sensitive to political and terrorism events, bad economic events increase the volatility of the exchange rate, and decrease the performance of banking sector. Political events remain the more important component, they affect negatively all the endogenous variables; coefficients in the mean equation show an important decline in term of the return of banking sector ,the stock market and the exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Effect of China-U.S. Trade Dispute on Chinese Stock Market: New Evidence from the Event Study Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 105-117
Author(s):  
Fuzhong Chen ◽  
Di Yu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
The Impact

In 2018, the China-U.S. trade dispute started, which brings heterogeneous impacts on the global economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of tariffs targeting Chinese exporting commodities imposed by the U.S. on the Chinese stock market by utilizing the event study analysis. 10 industries' stock returns between Jan. 3rd , 2017, and Apr. 3rd , 2020 were selected as the research objectives from the WIND database, according to the Chinese Shen Wan's classification standard. Results based on event study analysis show that: First, the China-U.S. trade dispute causes significant fluctuations to Chinese stock returns. Second, the impacts of the trade dispute are mainly negative, showing by the negative cumulative average abnormal returns in the export-oriented sectors when they are encountered with new tariffs imposed by the United States. However, the effects can also be positive because of the various situations of targeted industries, and the defensive measures taken by China. Third, the trade dispute also affects investors' views on the macro economy, in which the impact on the real economy can be transferred to other non-export-oriented industries, such as the banking sector. This study provides empirical evidence for China's policymakers to take measures in strengthening the independence of innovation, protecting intellectual property rights. Investors also need to equip themselves with more financial knowledge.

scholarly journals The price of the lockdown: The effects of social distancing on the Indian economy and business during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-99
Author(s):  
Hasnan Baber ◽  
Rao Tripati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The decision on immediate lockdown in India put economic, social and religious activities to a grinding halt. The paper examines the impact of the lockdown and social distancing policies on economic activities in India, using a multivariate econometric model for the data collected in the period from 1st January to 31st August 2020. While the social distancing policy is captured in terms of internal movement, domestic travel and international travel restrictions, its effect on the economic activity and the business activity is captured through stock prices, purchasing managers' index and the exchange rate. Confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths are also used as the independent variables. The results reveal a significant negative impact of social distancing policies on the economic activity and the business activity, the stock market and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the economic stimulus provided by the Government could not bring a positive influence on the stock market.

THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM ON TURKISH BANKS’ STOCKS AND CROSS-BANK VARIATION OF ABNORMAL RETURNS

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050011
Author(s):  
EDA ORHUN
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Income Level ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of the recent terrorist attacks on the Turkish banking sector. Specifically, an event study analysis is executed to estimate the abnormal returns of banks’ stocks in Turkey. According to the results, negative and significant abnormal returns were observed on the event dates of terrorist attacks, those of which especially occurred at international points and touristic places. The study continues with a regression analysis that looks into the cross-bank variation of abnormal returns by using important bank characteristics as predictors. The regression analysis exhibits that banks with higher leverage and larger size are prone to getting more negatively affected by the terrorist attack. On the other hand, banks with higher liquidity and higher income level are likely to have less negative abnormal returns.

Global financial economic crisis transmission on the transition economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Nargiza Alymkulova ◽  
Junus Ganiev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Transition Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Economic ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different. Design/methodology/approach The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis. Findings The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP. Originality/value The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.

INDUSTRY IMPACT OF CARTELS: EVIDENCE FROM THE STOCK MARKET1

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 358-379
Author(s):  
Iwan Bos ◽  
Wilko Letterie ◽  
Nina Scherl
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT This paper conducts an event study analysis to empirically assess the industry-wide impact of cartels. Using a sample of recent European cartel cases, we estimate the effect of the surprise inspection and final decision on the stock market value of cartel and noncartel firms. The overall effect of both events is negative for cartel members and statistically insignificant for noncartel members. However, the impact of the inspection is significantly negative for European noncartel suppliers and for noncartel suppliers in nonchemicals industries. This is consistent with the theory that cartels can create additional damages through positively affecting the performance of their competitors.

scholarly journals Economic Growth: How Inflation and the Exchange Rate Work Through the Stock Market as a Mediating Variable

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Vietha Devia SS
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Period

This study aims to investigate the impact of inflation and the exchange rate on economic growth through the stock market as a mediating variable. The analysis tool used a path model with monthly data. The research period lasted for 14 years from 2004 to 2017. The data was obtained from the Central Statistics Bureau, Bank Indonesia and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Case studies were conducted in Indonesia and the researcher took the Consumer Goods Index as a variable in the stock market. The results show that inflation and the exchange rates do not significantly affect economic growth through the stock market. Alternatively, the stock market is not an excellent mediating variable between inflation and the exchange rate on economic growth. The size of the stock market and the awareness of domestic investors when accessing the stock market is thought to be the factors that influence how the inflation and exchange rates work.

scholarly journals Credit Rating Changes and Stock Market Reaction in the Kingdom of Bahrain

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwan M. Abdeldayem ◽  
Ramzi Nekhili
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
The Impact

<p>Between 2014 and 2015, the oil price almost halved. Since then, it has fallen a further 40%. Consequently, Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Bahrain’s long-term issuer rating from Baa3 to Ba1with a negative outlook and placed it on review for further downgrade. In this context, previous literature reaches no agreement about the impact of credit rating changes on stock prices. Some studies indicate that credit rating changes do not affect stock prices, while others conclude they do. Therefore, this study aims to examine whether credit rating change has a significant impact on Bahraini stock prices. We conducted an event study to analyze stock market reaction to such news in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Even though Bahrain has witnessed a series of sovereign downgrades over the past five years, the latest downgrading event in February 17, 2016, has been followed by a credit rating downgrade of its banking sector in March 7, 2016. Hence the choice of the sample period of the event study includes both these downgrading events over the period of study from January 2, 2014 till March 22, 2016. Three sectors were selected from the Bahrain all share index: banks, service and industrial. The findings of the study reveal that sovereign rating downgrade has some mixed pre-announcement and post-announcement effects and credit rating downgrade provides useful information. Overall, the results indicate that downgrades and negative outlook announcements have an adverse impact on long-term equity returns, but little impact on short-term performance.</p>

scholarly journals External Shocks and Volatility Overflow among the Exchange Rate of the Yen, Nikkei, TOPIX and Sectoral Stock Indices

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 560
Author(s):  
Mirzosaid Sultonov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Transportation Equipment ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we examined the changes in volatility overflow among the exchange rate of the Japanese yen (JPY), the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei), the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) and the TOPIX sectoral indices for the period of 10 February 2016 to 24 March 2017. We employed the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, the cross-correlation function, and the daily logarithmic returns of JPY, Nikkei, TOPIX and the TOPIX components with a weight of 5% and more in estimations (banks, chemicals, electric appliances, information and communication, machinery and transportation equipment indices). The findings highlighted causality in variance (volatility spillover) among the variables. We revealed that volatility could also spread indirectly among the variables (from one variable to another through a third variable). We demonstrated how the impact of news about the results of the Brexit referendum (BR) and the United States presidential election (USE) in 2016 might spread among the variables indirectly within a week.

scholarly journals The impact of news events on the Tunisian stock market volatility: A Post-revolutionary study

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-237
Author(s):  
Salma Zaiane ◽  
Atef Ben Allita
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Social Events ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Tunisian Revolution ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of political, economic, social and terrorism events on market volatility over the period of the Tunisian revolution from December 1, 2010 to May 29, 2015. Our study is based on daily data of three variable: Tunindex the composite index of the Tunisian stock market, the financial companies’ index, and the exchange rate Eur/Tnd, in order to detect the influence of each type of event on these three selected variables. Using an EGARCH model, the empirical evidence highlights that the fourth types of events affect the Tunindex market volatility. In fact, the political, social and terrorism events increase the volatility of the index. However, the economic events diminish this volatility. Furthermore, we notice that only political and social events influence the market volatility of the financial companies. However, exchange rate Eur/Tnd was affected only by economic and social events.

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