Study on risk assessment of cascading failures with event tree approach and Bayesian network

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Zhu ◽  
Ping Liu ◽  
Lei Feng ◽  
Yingguo Yang ◽  
Feng Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Cascading Failures ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Approach

Bayesian mutual information reliability model for fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings

2020 ◽  
pp. 002072091989419
Author(s):  
Jingjing Pei ◽  
Guantao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
High Rise ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Reliability

The Bayesian network method is introduced into the process of fire risk quantitative assessment. The event tree model is established, and the Bayesian network model is transformed from the event tree model based on the typical fire scenarios in high-rise space. A Bayesian fire risk assessment algorithm for high-rise buildings based on mutual information reliability is proposed. Bayesian network is modified considering the influence of uncertainties. Finally, the modified Bayesian network model is used to calculate the probability of fire developing to different stages, and the estimated value of property loss is used to express the severity of the accident and calculate the fire risk value. The results show that the existence of uncertainties has a significant impact on the results of risk assessment; the quantitative assessment method based on Bayesian network is better than the ETA method based on event tree analysis in dealing with uncertainties and is more suitable for high-rise space fire risk assessment.

scholarly journals A Tutorial on Fire Domino Effect Modeling Using Bayesian Networks

Modelling ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-258
Author(s):  
Nima Khakzad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Reasoning Under Uncertainty ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Network

High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical and process facilities have made them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects, particularly fire dominoes, are spatial-temporal phenomena where not only the location of involved units, but also their temporal entailment in the accident chain matter. Spatial-temporal dependencies and uncertainties prevailing during domino effects, arising mainly from possible synergistic effects and randomness of potential events, restrict the use of conventional risk assessment techniques such as fault tree and event tree. Bayesian networks—a type of probabilistic network for reasoning under uncertainty—have proven to be a reliable and robust technique for the modeling and risk assessment of domino effects. In the present study, applications of Bayesian networks to modeling and safety assessment of domino effects in petroleum tank terminals has been demonstrated via some examples. The tutorial starts by illustrating the inefficacy of event tree analysis in domino effect modeling and then discusses the capabilities of Bayesian network and its derivatives such as dynamic Bayesian network and influence diagram. It is also discussed how noisy OR can be used to significantly reduce the complexity and number of conditional probabilities required for model establishment.

Integration of Degradation Models Into Generation Risk Assessment (GRA): Challenges and Modeling Approaches

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikko I. Jyrkama ◽  
Mahesh D. Pandey ◽  
Stephen M. Hess
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Reliability Models ◽  
Degradation Models ◽  
Joint Contribution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Over Time

The main objective of generation risk assessment (GRA) is to assess the impact of equipment unavailability and failures on the ability of the plant to produce power over time. The system reliability models employed for this purpose are based on the standard fault tree /event tree approach, which assumes failure rates to be constant. However, this ignores the impact of aging degradation and results in static estimates of expected generation loss. Component and equipment degradation not only increases the probability of failure over time, but also contributes to generation risk through increased unavailability and costs arising from greater requirement for inspection and replacement of degraded components. This paper discusses some of the key challenges associated with integrating the results of component degradation models into GRA. Because many analytical and simulation methods are subject to limitations, the methodology and modeling approach proposed in this work builds on the current GRA practice using the fault tree approach. The modeling of component degradation can be done separately at the fault tree cut set level, assuming the cut sets are independent and the component unavailabilities are relatively small. In order to capture the joint contribution of equipment failure and unavailability to generation risk, new risk-based importance measures are also developed using the concept of net present value (NPV).

scholarly journals Risk Analysis Using HAZOP -Fault Tree - Event Tree Methodology Case Study: Naphta Stabilizer-A Reflux Drum (LPG separation) in RA1K

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-105
Author(s):  
Seif El Islam Bouasla ◽  
Youcef ZENNIR ◽  
El-Arkam MECHHOUD
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Accident Scenarios ◽  
Tree Approach

The purpose of this work is the risk assessment of a stabilizer reflux drum using HAZOP - Fault tree - Event tree approach. This risk assessment approach aims first of all to identify potential accident scenarios using Hazard an Operability study (HAZOP), these scenarios need more detailed frequencies estimation, it is performed thanks to fault tree analysis. Then, to analyze events issuing after success or fail of safety barriers, the event tree is used. Finally, in order to better appreciate accident scenarios, ALOHA is utilized to simulate them.

Integration of Degradation Models Into Generation Risk Assessment: Challenges and Modeling Approaches

2010 ◽  
Vol 132 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikko I. Jyrkama ◽  
Mahesh D. Pandey ◽  
Stephen M. Hess
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Reliability Models ◽  
Degradation Models ◽  
Joint Contribution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Over Time

The main objective of generation risk assessment (GRA) is to assess the impact of equipment unavailability and failures on the ability of the plant to produce power over time. The system reliability models employed for this purpose are based on the standard fault tree/event tree approach, which assumes failure rates to be constant. However, this ignores the impact of aging degradation and results in static estimates of expected generation loss. Component and equipment degradation not only increases the probability of failure over time, but also contributes to generation risk through increased unavailability and costs arising from greater requirement for inspection and replacement of degraded components. This paper discusses some of the key challenges associated with integrating the results of component degradation models into GRA. Because many analytical and simulation methods are subject to limitations, the methodology and modeling approach proposed in this work builds on the current GRA practice using the fault tree approach. The modeling of component degradation can be done separately at the fault tree cut set level, assuming the cut sets are independent and the component unavailabilities are relatively small. In order to capture the joint contribution of equipment failure and unavailability to generation risk, new risk-based importance measures are also developed using the concept of net present value.

Challenges and Developments in Navigational Risk Assessment With Large Uncertainty

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinping Yan ◽  
Jinfen Zhang ◽  
Di Zhang ◽  
Carlos Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
General Application ◽  
The Past ◽  
Formal Safety Assessment ◽  
Belief Rule Base

Concerns have been raised to navigational safety worldwide because of the increasing throughput and the passing ships during the past decades while maritime accidents such as collisions, groundings, overturns, oil-spills and fires have occurred, causing serious consequences. Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been acknowledged to be a framework widely used in maritime risk assessment. Under this framework, this paper discusses certain existing challenges when an effective safety assessment is carried out under a variety of uncertainties. Some theories and methodologies are proposed to overcome the present challenges, e.g., Fault/Event Tree Analysis (FTA/ETA), Evidential Reasoning (ER), Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and Belief Rule Base (BRB). Subsequently, three typical case studies that have been carried out in the Yangtze River are introduced to illustrate the general application of those approaches. These examples aim to demonstrate how advanced methodologies can facilitate navigational risk assessment under high uncertainties.

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