A Model of the Oil Prices' Return Rate Threshold for the Two Stock Market Returns: An Evidence Study of the U.S. and Canada's Stock Markets

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wann-Jyi Horng ◽  
Ju-Lan Tsai ◽  
Yung-Chin Chiu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Return Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Rate Threshold

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

scholarly journals Financial contagion and 2016 oil crisis: a factor analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turki Maya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Component Structure ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Oil Crisis ◽  
Market Indexes ◽  
Variance Explained

<p>The paper tries to answer the following question: could the 2016 oil price crisis generate financial contagion among stock markets? </p> <p>The study period is composed of two sub-periods; a quiet one from 3/01/2012 to 01/08/2014 and turbulent one from 04/08/2014 to 25/05/2016. Raw data consists of daily international stock market indexes prices. The co-movements of the stock market returns are analyzed through a principal component analysis (PCA).</p> <p>The results revealed that the <em>KMO</em> index (Kaiser-Mayer-Olkin) is higher during the turbulent period than during the quiet one and that the proportion of variance explained by the first component during the turbulent period reached 35% while during the quiet one it represented only 26,7%.Regarding the component structure, for the turbulent period, three factors are able to explain the stock markets indexes movements while for the quiet period four factors are required. </p> <p>The findings give more credit to the thesis supporting the linkage between cross correlation and financial contagion and classify the 2016 oil crisis, as just a coupling episode and not an extreme one.</p>

A GARCH Modelling of Volatility and M-GARCH Approach of Stock Market Linkages of North America

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1538-1553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Highly Sensitive

The present study attempts to capture the return volatility and the extent of dynamic conditional correlation between the stock markets of North America region. The data contain weekly stock market returns spanning from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of June 2016. Using univariate ARCH and GARCH approaches, the study finds evidence of return volatility and its persistence within the region. Mexican stock market neither reacts intensely to immediate market fluctuations nor the part of the realized past volatility spill over to the current period, whereas the stock markets of Canada and USA experience high persistence of return volatility and Bermuda stock market returns are highly sensitive to the immediate market fluctuations. Using MGARCH-DCC, this article finds that emerging markets are less linked to the developed market in terms of return and that there also exists a weak co-movement between the stock markets. There is no evidence of market integration throughout the sample period. Correlations tend to spread out equally throughout the sample period, but the co-variances were found to be more volatile during 2008–2010. This article reveals that changes in co-movement are not due to a change in the correlations between markets but is simply due to volatility.

scholarly journals Opportunity or Crisis? Volatility and Leverage Effect in the World’s Largest Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Amalendu Bhunia ◽  
Devrim Yaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between asset volatility and leverage for the three largest economies (based on purchasing power parity) in the world; US, China, and India. Collectively, these economies represent Int$56,269 billion of economic power, making it important to understand the relationship among these economies that provide valuable investment opportunities for investors. We focus on a volatile period in economic history starting in 1997 when the Asian financial crisis began. Using autoregressive models, we find that Chinese stock markets have the highest volatility among the three stock markets while the US stock market has the highest average returns. The Chinese market is less efficient than the US and Indian stock markets since the impact of new information takes longer to be reflected in stock prices. Our results show that the unconditional correlation among these stock markets is significant and positive although the correlation values are low in magnitude. We also find that past market volatility is a good indicator of future market volatility in our sample. The results show that positive stock market returns result in lower volatility compared to negative stock market returns. These results demonstrate that the largest economies of the world are highly integrated and investors should consider volatility and leverage besides returns when investing in these countries.

DCC Analysis of the Two Stock Market Returns by a Threshold Model: Empirical Study of the Stock Markets in Japan and Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 468-471 ◽  
pp. 181-185
Author(s):  
Wann Jyi Horng ◽  
Tien Chung Hu ◽  
Ming Chi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Result ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The empirical results show that the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and the bivariate asymmetric-IGARCH (1, 2) model is appropriate in evaluating the relationship of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets. The empirical result also indicates that the Japan and the Canada’s stock markets is a positive relation. The average estimation value of correlation coefficient equals to 0.2514, which implies that the two stock markets is synchronized influence. Besides, the empirical result also shows that the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock markets have an asymmetrical effect, and the variation risks of the Japan’s and the Canada’s stock market returns also receives the influence of the good and bad news, respectively.

scholarly journals The Relevance of Cboe Volatility Index to Stock Markets in Emerging Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-106
Author(s):  
Tamara Mariničevaitė ◽  
Jovita Ražauskaitė
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Volatility Index

We examine the capability of CBOE S&P500 Volatility index (VIX) to determine returns of emerging stock market indices as compared to local stock markets volatility indicators. Our study considers CBOE S&P500 VIX, local BRIC stock market volatility indices and BRIC stock market MSCI indices daily returns in the period from January 1, 2009 to September 30, 2014. Research is conducted in two steps. First, we perform Spearman correlation analysis between daily changes in CBOE S&P500 VIX, local BRIC stock market VIX and MSCI BRIC stock market indices returns. Second, we perform multiple regression analysis with ARCH effects to estimate the relevance of CBOE S&P500 VIX and local VIX in determining BRIC stock market returns. Research reports weak correlation between CBOE S&P500 VIX and local VIX (except for Brazil). Furthermore, results challenge the assumption of CBOE S&P500 VIX being an indicator of global risk aversion. We conclude that commonly documented trends of rising globalization and stock markets co-integration are not yet present in emerging economies, therefore the usage of CBOE S&P500 VIX alone in determining BRIC stock market returns should be considered cautiously, and local volatility indices should be accounted for in analysis. Furthermore, the data confirms the presence of safe haven properties in Chinese stock market index.

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