Predicting the PVT properties of Iran crude oil by Neural Network

Author(s):  
Amir Alimadadi ◽  
Amin Fakhri ◽  
Fatemeh Alimadadi ◽  
MirHossein Dezfoulian
1999 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 454-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ridha B. Gharbi ◽  
Adel M. Elsharkawy ◽  
Mansour Karkoub

1999 ◽  
Vol 2 (03) ◽  
pp. 255-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ridha B.C. Gharbi ◽  
Adel M. Elsharkawy

Summary The importance of pressure/volume/temperature (PVT) properties, such as the bubblepoint pressure, solution gas-oil ratio, and oil formation volume factor, makes their accurate determination necessary for reservoir performance calculations. An enormous amount of PVT data has been collected and correlated over many years for different types of hydrocarbon systems. Almost all of these correlations were developed with linear or nonlinear multiple regression or graphical techniques. Artificial neural networks, once successfully trained, offer an alternative way to obtain reliable results for the determination of crude oil PVT properties. In this study, we present neural-network-based models for the prediction of PVT properties of crude oils from the Middle East. The data on which the network was trained represent the largest data set ever collected to be used in developing PVT models for Middle East crude oils. The neural-network model is able to predict the bubblepoint pressure and the oil formation volume factor as a function of the solution gas-oil ratio, the gas specific gravity, the oil specific gravity, and the temperature. A detailed comparison between the results predicted by the neural-network models and those predicted by other correlations are presented for these Middle East crude-oil samples. Introduction In absence of experimentally measured pressure/volume/temperature (PVT) properties, two methods are widely used. These methods are equation of state (EOS) and PVT correlations. The equation of state is based on knowing the detailed compositions of the reservoir fluids. The determination of such quantities is expensive and time consuming. The equation of state involves numerous numerical computations. On the other hand, PVT correlations are based on easily measured field data: reservoir pressure, reservoir temperature, oil, and gas specific gravity. In the petroleum process industries, reliable experimental data are always to be preferred over data obtained from correlations. However, very often reliable experimental data are not available, and the advantage of a correlation is that it may be used to predict properties for which very little experimental information is available. The importance of accurate PVT data for material-balance calculations is well understood. It is crucial that all calculations in reservoir performance, in production operations and design, and in formation evaluation be as good as the PVT properties used in these calculations. The economics of the process also depends on the accuracy of such properties. The development of correlations for PVT calculations has been the subject of extensive research, resulting in a large volume of publications.1–10 Several graphical and mathematical correlations for determining the bubblepoint pressure (Pb) and the oil formation volume factor (Bob) have been proposed during the last five decades. These correlations are essentially based on the assumption that P b and Bob are strong functions of the solution gas-oil ratio (Rs) the reservoir temperature (T), the gas specific gravity (?g) and the oil specific gravity (?o) or P b = f 1 ( R s , T , γ g , γ o ) , ( 1 ) B o b = f 2 ( R s , T , γ g , γ o ) . ( 2 ) In 1947, Standing1 presented graphical correlations for the determination of bubblepoint pressure (Pb) and the oil formation volume factor (Bob) In developing these correlations, Standing used 105 experimentally measured data points from 22 different crude-oil and gas mixtures from California oil fields. Average relative errors of 4.8% and of 1.17% were reported for Pb and Bob respectively. Later, in 1958, Lasater9 developed an empirical equation based on Henry's law for estimating the bubblepoint pressure. He correlated the mole fraction of gas in solution to a bubblepoint pressure factor. A total of 137 crude-oil and gas mixtures from North and South America was used for developing this correlation. An average error of 3.8% was reported. Lasater did not present a correlation for Bob In 1980, two sets of correlations were reported, one by Vasquez and Beggs10 and the other by Glasø.7 Vasquez and Beggs used 600 data points from various locations all over the world to develop correlations for Pb and Bob. Two different types of correlations were presented, one for crudes with °API>30 and the other for crudes with °API 30. An average error of 4.7% was reported for their correlation of Bob Glasø used a total of 45 oil samples from the North Sea to develop his correlations for calculating Pb and Bob. He reported an average error of 1.28% for the bubblepoint pressure and ?0.43% for the formation volume factor. Recently, Al-Marhoun4 used 160 experimentally determined data points from the PVT analysis of 69 Middle Eastern hydrocarbon mixtures to develop his correlations. Average errors of 0.03% and ?0.01% were reported for Pb and Bob respectively. Dokla and Osman6 used a total of 50 data points from reservoirs in the United Arab Emirates to develop correlations for Pb and Bob. They reported an average error of 0.45% for the bubblepoint pressure and 0.023% for the formation volume factor. The conventional approach to develop PVT correlations is based on multiple-regression techniques. An alternative approach will be to use an artificial neural network (ANN). PVT models based on a successfully trained ANN can be excellent, reliable tools for the prediction of crude-oil PVT properties. The massive interconnections in the ANN produces a large number of degrees of freedom, or fitting parameters, and thus may allow it to capture the system's nonlinearity better than conventional regression techniques. Recently, artificial neural networks have found use in a number of areas in petroleum engineering.11–20 The objective of this study is to use ANNs to develop accurate PVT correlations for Middle East crude oil to estimate Pb and Bob as functions of Rs, T, ?g, ?o. With additional experimental data, the neural-network model can be further refined to incorporate these new data. In addition, in this article we evaluate the accuracy of the ANN models developed in this study compared to other PVT correlations.


2021 ◽  
pp. 321-326
Author(s):  
Sivaprakash J. ◽  
Manu K. S.

In the advanced global economy, crude oil is a commodity that plays a major role in every economy. As Crude oil is highly traded commodity it is essential for the investors, analysts, economists to forecast the future spot price of the crude oil appropriately. In the last year the crude oil faced a historic fall during the pandemic and reached all time low, but will this situation last? There was analysis such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis and time series analyses which were carried out for predicting the movement of the oil prices but the accuracy in such prediction is still a question. Thus, it is necessary to identify better methods to forecast the crude oil prices. This study is an empirical study to forecast crude oil prices using the neural networks. This study consists of 13 input variables with one target variable. The data are divided in the ratio 70:30. The 70% data is used for training the network and 30% is used for testing. The feed forward and back propagation algorithm are used to predict the crude oil price. The neural network proved to be efficient in forecasting in the modern era. A simple neural network performs better than the time series models. The study found that back propagation algorithm performs better while predicting the crude oil price. Hence, ANN can be used by the investors, forecasters and for future researchers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Yuli Andriani ◽  
Hotmalina Silitonga ◽  
Anjar Wanto

Analisis pada penelitian penting dilakukan untuk tujuan mengetahui ketepatan dan keakuratan dari penelitian itu sendiri. Begitu juga dalam prediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia. Dilakukannya penelitian ini untuk mengetahui seberapa besar perkembangan ekspor dan impor Indonesia di bidang migas di masa yang akan datang. Penelitian ini menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST) atau Artificial Neural Network (ANN) dengan algoritma Backpropagation. Data penelitian ini bersumber dari dokumen kepabeanan Ditjen Bea dan Cukai yaitu Pemberitahuan Ekspor Barang (PEB) dan Pemberitahuan Impor Barang (PIB). Berdasarkan data ini, variabel yang digunakan ada 7, antara lain: Tahun, ekspor minyak mentah, impor minyak mentah, ekspor hasil minyak, impor hasil minyak, ekspor gas dan impor gas. Ada 5 model arsitektur yang digunakan pada penelitian ini, 12-5-1, 12-7-1, 12-8-1, 12-10-1 dan 12-14-1. Dari ke 5 model yang digunakan, yang terbaik adalah 12-5-1 dengan menghasilkan tingkat akurasi 83%, MSE 0,0281641257 dengan tingkat error yang digunakan 0,001-0,05. Sehingga model ini bagus untuk memprediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia, karena akurasianya antara 80% hingga 90%.   Analysis of the research is Imporant used to know precision and accuracy of the research itself. It is also in the prediction of Volume Exports and Impors of Oil and Gas in Indonesia. This research is conducted to find out how much the development of Indonesia's exports and Impors in the field of oil and gas in the future. This research used Artificial Neural Network with Backpropagation algorithm. The data of this research have as a source from custom documents of the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (Declaration Form/PEB and Impor Export Declaration/PIB). Based on this data, there are 7 variables used, among others: Year, Crude oil exports, Crude oil Impors, Exports of oil products, Impored oil products, Gas exports and Gas Impors. There are 5 architectural models used in this study, 12-5-1, 12-7-1, 12-8-1, 12-10-1 and 12-14-1. Of the 5 models has used, the best models is 12-5-1 with an accuracy 83%, MSE 0.0281641257 with error rate 0.001-0.05. So this model is good to predict the Volume of Exports and Impors of Oil and Gas in Indonesia, because its accuracy between 80% to 90%.


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