Bayesian Theory and Robust Control Strategy in Risk Management of Large-Scale Engineering Project

Author(s):  
Weihua Fang
2010 ◽  
Vol 171-172 ◽  
pp. 3-6
Author(s):  
Yan Ping Feng ◽  
Da Chang Zhu

Many projects have the characteristic of large-scale, wide-rang, and at very important role in national economy. Nowadays engineering project management is still suffering from many problems due to various uncertainties kind of risks. Risk management is a crucial parts of successful engineering project management, but it is often not well predictive in many projects. Risk predictive is valuable and essential for decision support system. But risk factors in projects are complex and couple with each other, and normal risk predictive can not manifest this relationship fully. According to the uncertainness parameters in risk management, predictive control strategy is proposed in this paper. Considering the nonlinear dynamical process, the model of external disturbance is built as a part of control system, and its stability is also analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical simulation.


2013 ◽  
Vol 415 ◽  
pp. 287-293
Author(s):  
Li Xin Zheng

The electric power engineering project has many characteristics like large scale, long construction period, complex technology, many units involved and so on. In order to avoid risk and improve the risk management efficiency of electric power engineering project, this article established a risk evaluation index system from the perspective of environmental risk, economic risk, technical risk, management risk, and market risk. According to the characteristics of the risk evaluation indicators, it built a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and took a power construction projects as an example to analyze the application of the model.


2014 ◽  
Vol 651-653 ◽  
pp. 1711-1716
Author(s):  
Yao Yu Jin

Due to the risk of large-scale public welfare project and a wide variety of intricate link between various risks, the success of its projects is a great significance for the development of China's construction industry, many issues still need further research, particularly research project risk assessment. the theoretical research evaluation of large-scale public welfare project risks are becoming a core of project risk management, this paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of large-scale public utilities engineering project risk based on entropy method, and through case studies, large public utilities project risk management provides a simple, more objective methods of analysis for policy-makers to play the role of the project.


2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 1120-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
De Shun Wang ◽  
Bo Yang ◽  
Lian Tao Ji

A static frequency converter start-up control strategy for pumped-storage power unit is presented. And rotor position detecting without position sensor is realized according to voltage and magnetism equations of ideal synchronous motor mathematics model. The mechanism and implementation method of initial rotor position determination and rotor position estimation under low frequency without position sensor are expounded and validated by simulations. Based on the mentioned control strategy, first set of a static frequency converter start-up device in China for large-scale pumped-storage unit is developed, which is applied to start-up control test in the 90 MW generator/motor of Panjiakou Pumped-storage Power Plant. Test results show that rotor position detecting, pulse commutation, natural commutation, and unit synchronous procedure control of static start-up are all proved. The outcomes have been applied in running equipment, which proves the feasibility of mentioned method.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2287
Author(s):  
Kaina Qin ◽  
Shanshan Wang ◽  
Zhongjian Kang

With the rapid increase in the proportion of the installed wind power capacity in the total grid capacity, the state has put forward higher and higher requirements for wind power integration into the grid, among which the most difficult requirement is the zero-voltage ride through (ZVRT) capability of the wind turbine. When the voltage drops deeply, a series of transient processes, such as serious overvoltage, overcurrent, or speed rise, will occur in the motor, which will seriously endanger the safe operation of the wind turbine itself and its control system, and cause large-scale off-grid accident of wind generator. Therefore, it is of great significance to improve the uninterrupted operation ability of the wind turbine. Doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) can achieve the best wind energy tracking control in a wide range of wind speed and has the advantage of flexible power regulation. It is widely used at present, but it is sensitive to the grid voltage. In the current study, the DFIG is taken as the research object. The transient process of the DFIG during a fault is analyzed in detail. The mechanism of the rotor overcurrent and DC bus overvoltage of the DFIG during fault is studied. Additionally, the simulation model is built in DIgSILENT. The active crowbar hardware protection circuit is put into the rotor side of the wind turbine, and the extended state observer and terminal sliding mode control are added to the grid side converter control. Through the cooperative control technology, the rotor overcurrent and DC bus overvoltage can be suppressed to realize the zero-voltage ride-through of the doubly fed wind turbine, and ensure the safe and stable operation of the wind farm. Finally, the simulation results are presented to verify the theoretical analysis and the proposed control strategy.


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