Relational Decision-Making Method for Optimization of Urban Public Transport Network Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Jun ◽  
Li Xiaowei ◽  
Chen Hong ◽  
Ma Juan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Transport Network ◽  
Urban Public Transport

Decision-making of investment in navigation safety improving schemes with application of cumulative prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 (6) ◽  
pp. 710-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Tongle Yin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Safety Investment ◽  
Navigation Safety

Navigation safety improving investment aims at mitigating risk and improving safety of shipping system, while decision-makers’ attitudes toward the uncertainty of shipping safety possess a characteristic of “bounded rationality.” To study the tendency of shipping safety investment decision-making with different risk perception and appetite, a decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed in this article. First, we extract the decision attributes through analyzing the factors affecting shipping safety investment. Then, according to cumulative prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function for calculating cumulative prospect values of shipping investment attributes are given. Under the risk-based multi-attribute group decision-making framework, linear programming model and projection method are introduced to aggregate the weights of attributes and decision-makers, respectively. Furthermore, through a case study, the proposed methodology is utilized in Three Gorges Dam area, and the desirable safety investment scheme is determined from a set of candidate alternatives. The case study shows not only validity and feasibility of the decision-making approach but also the mechanism of shipping safety investment decision-making with consideration of the behavior characteristics of decision-makers such as reference dependence, risk appetite distortion, and loss aversion.

Study on Main Issues of Sustainable Urban Public Transport in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 2121-2126
Author(s):  
Li Gai Yang ◽  
Hong Yang Wu ◽  
Xu Mei Chen ◽  
Hao Zhi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Urban Management ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Strategic Measures ◽  
Urban Public Transport

Urban public transport is the basic and guiding industry for the cities development. And it is also important livelihood projects. In this paper, the main problems of urban public transport development are analyzed, and the strategic measures are proposed for the problems to promote the sustainable development of public transport. This paper aims to provide decision-making reference for urban management department.

scholarly journals Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Xueqin Long ◽  
Liancai Zhang ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Jianjun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Actual Observation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lane Keeping

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

Comprehensive Evaluation for Urban Public Transport Network Based on TOPSIS

2013 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 1998-2001
Author(s):  
Fa An Chen ◽  
Zhou Hao Wu
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Network Planning ◽  
Transport Network ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Urban Public Transport ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
Scheme Evaluation

In order to improve the objectivity of urban public transport network evaluation and achieve the sub-file of quality level of preliminary scheme, a comprehensive evaluation method for urban public transport network was proposed based on TOPSIS, and then constructed the evaluation model of urban public transport network. This method was applied to Xian urban public transport network planning, which obeyed the basic theory of scheme evaluation and some related requirements. The result showed that planning-5 was the best one among the five urban public transport network planning in Xian and consistent with the passenger flow prediction. The evaluation model for urban public transport network based on TOPSIS was objective, which involved few parameters, simple operation, scientific evaluation and provided a basis for urban public transport network planning decision.

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