Dynamic State Estimator using three parameter exponential smoothing technique

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Mondal ◽  
S.S. Thakur ◽  
S. Mallick
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Dynamic State ◽  
Smoothing Technique ◽  
State Estimator ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique

scholarly journals Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Noreha Mohamed Yusof ◽  
Norani Amit ◽  
Nor Faradilah Mahad ◽  
Noorezatty Mohd Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Smoothing Technique ◽  
Smoothing Techniques ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique

Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Palm Oil Fruit Delivery Quantities Using the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Case Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 488-489 ◽  
pp. 1277-1281
Author(s):  
Noor Ajian Mohd-Lair ◽  
Abdul Halim Kudi ◽  
Bih Lii Chua ◽  
Rosalam Sarbatly
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Method Comparison ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Technique ◽  
Naive Method ◽  
Palm Oil Mill ◽  
Forecast Technique ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique

Palm oil industry has increasingly become the important industry for Malaysia. However, only a limited number of researches have been conducted on improving the palm oil industries. This research attempted to contribute by improving forecast activity along the palm oil industry. Specifically, this research centred on the development of forecast software for a Malaysian based palm oil estate. The developed forecasting software can be used to assist the estate manager in predicting accurately their monthly delivery quantity to the palm oil mill. The forecast technique selected for this research was the trend adjusted exponential smoothing technique. The performance of the trend adjusted exponential smoothing technique based software was then compared to the naïve method. Comparison in the performance indicated that the trend adjusted exponential smoothing produces lower root mean square error, which is equivalent to 14.6% of error produced by the naïve method. This finding emphasises the efficiency of the trend adjusted exponential smoothing in predicting the monthly delivery quantity by the palm oil estate.

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