scholarly journals Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Noreha Mohamed Yusof ◽  
Norani Amit ◽  
Nor Faradilah Mahad ◽  
Noorezatty Mohd Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Smoothing Technique ◽  
Smoothing Techniques ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique

Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226.

scholarly journals Stock market returns and exchange rate movements in a multiple currency economy: the case of Zimbabwe

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mabutho Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
New Evidence

This study seeks to provide new evidence on the stock market and exchange rate relationship in Zimbabwe, a country that does not have its own sovereign currency. The bivariate vector autoregressive approach is used to establish the relationship between the stock market and exchange rates. The results show that no relationship exists between the stock market and the proxy exchange rate. The findings contradict the expectation that exchange rate movements would influence domestic stock market prices. This finding is especially interesting given the fact that Zimbabwe uses a basket of currencies for transacting purposes, albeit with the United States dollar as a major currency for reporting and stock market pricing purposes. The findings provide new evidence of a disconnect between the stock market and exchange rate movements. This has implications for international portfolio diversification and the use of foreign currency as an asset class in an economy using a multiple currency system.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

scholarly journals Forecasting The Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paraschos Maniatis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Laplace Distribution ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Smoothing Techniques ◽  
Initial Time Series ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none;" class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="color: black; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This study attempts to model the exchange rate between Euro and USD using univariate models- in particular ARIMA and exponential smoothing techniques. The time series analysis reveals non stationarity in data and, therefore, the models fail to give reliable predictions. However, differencing the initial time series the resulting series shows strong resemblance to white noise. The analysis of this series advocates independence in data and distribution satisfactorily close to Laplace distribution. The application of Laplace distribution offers reliable probabilities in forecasting changes in the exchange rate.</span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINAN IMPOR DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 1990 – 2015

2019 ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Linanda Aninditha Chisilia ◽  
A.A Bagus Putu Widanta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Import Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Abstract: Determinant Analysis of Beef Import in Indonesia On Year 1990-2015. The purpose ofthis study is to determine the effect of the amount of production, consumption, prices of importedand local beef and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously on beef imports in Indonesia. Todetermine the effect of the amount of production, consumption, prices of imported and local beef and partially the US dollar exchange rate on beef imports in Indonesia. To find out the dominant variable between the amount of production, consumption, the price of imported and local beef andthe exchange rate of the United States dollar towards Indonesian beef imports. The data used inthis study are secondary using multiple linear regression analysis techniques. The results showsimultaneously a significant effect on beef imports in Indonesia. Partially the amount of productionand the US dollar exchange rate does not have a significant effect on beef imports in Indonesia.While the variable local prices and consumption partially have a positive and significant effect onbeef imports in Indonesia and the import price variable partially has a negative and significanteffect on beef imports in Indonesia. The dominant factor affecting beef imports in Indonesia isconsumption variable.Keywords: tourism industry; investment; employment opportunities; tourism sector GRDP.

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