Comparative Study of Moving Average on Rainfall Time Series Data for Rainfall Forecasting Based on Evolving Neural Network Classifier

Smart metering is a recently developed research area over the globe and it appears to be a remedy for increasing prices of electricity. Electricity consumption forecasting is an essential process in offering intelligence to smart girds. Rapid and precise forecasting allows a utility provider to plan the resources and also to take control actions to balance the electricity supply and demand. The customers will advantage from the metering solutions by a greater understanding of their own energy utilization and forthcoming projections, allowing them to effectively manage the cost of their consumption. In this view, this paper presents an Integration of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model with Neural Network (NN) for Electricity Consumption Forecasting using Smart Meter Data. As the time series data often does not hold linear as well as nonlinear patterns, ARIMA or NN models are not enough to model and predict the time series data. The ARIMA-NN model will be trained using the data and generates a model. Afterward, the generated model can be utilized to predict the electricity consumption by the application of new building data. The proposed ARIMA-NN model is evaluated and the simulation outcome strongly pointed out its superior performance over the compared methods. The presented model has obtained effective testing performance with the MAPE of 25.53, an accuracy of 48.38, and MSE of 0.21.

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HYBRID GREY RELATIONAL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL FOR FORECASTING TIME-SERIES DATA

Applied Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.1080/08839510902879384 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 23 (5) ◽

pp. 443-486 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Roselina Sallehuddin ◽

Siti Mariyam Hj. Shamsuddin

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Artificial Neural Network ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Moving Average ◽

Series Data ◽

Average Model ◽

Moving Average Model ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Grey Relational

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Neural Network Techniques for Time Series Prediction: A Review

JOIV International Journal on Informatics Visualization ◽

10.30630/joiv.3.3.281 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Muhammad Faheem Mushtaq ◽

Urooj Akram ◽

Muhammad Aamir ◽

Haseeb Ali ◽

Muhammad Zulqarnain

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Neural Networks ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Time Series Prediction ◽

Series Data ◽

Prediction Problem ◽

Neural Network Models ◽

Physical Time

It is important to predict a time series because many problems that are related to prediction such as health prediction problem, climate change prediction problem and weather prediction problem include a time component. To solve the time series prediction problem various techniques have been developed over many years to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. This paper presents a review of the prediction of physical time series applications using the neural network models. Neural Networks (NN) have appeared as an effective tool for forecasting of time series. Moreover, to resolve the problems related to time series data, there is a need of network with single layer trainable weights that is Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) which can perform nonlinearity mapping of input-output. So, the developers are focusing on HONN that has been recently considered to develop the input representation spaces broadly. The HONN model has the ability of functional mapping which determined through some time series problems and it shows the more benefits as compared to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The goal of this research is to present the reader awareness about HONN for physical time series prediction, to highlight some benefits and challenges using HONN.

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A Comparison of Time-Series Predictions for Healthcare Emergency Department Indicators and the Impact of COVID-19

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11083561 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 3561

Author(s):

Diego Duarte ◽

Chris Walshaw ◽

Nadarajah Ramesh

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Moving Average ◽

General Regression Neural Network ◽

Series Data ◽

Machine Learning Model ◽

Hospital Patients ◽

Major Incidents ◽

General Regression ◽

The Impact

Across the world, healthcare systems are under stress and this has been hugely exacerbated by the COVID pandemic. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), usually in the form of time-series data, are used to help manage that stress. Making reliable predictions of these indicators, particularly for emergency departments (ED), can facilitate acute unit planning, enhance quality of care and optimise resources. This motivates models that can forecast relevant KPIs and this paper addresses that need by comparing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, a purely statistical model, to Prophet, a decomposable forecasting model based on trend, seasonality and holidays variables, and to the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), a machine learning model. The dataset analysed is formed of four hourly valued indicators from a UK hospital: Patients in Department; Number of Attendances; Unallocated Patients with a DTA (Decision to Admit); Medically Fit for Discharge. Typically, the data exhibit regular patterns and seasonal trends and can be impacted by external factors such as the weather or major incidents. The COVID pandemic is an extreme instance of the latter and the behaviour of sample data changed dramatically. The capacity to quickly adapt to these changes is crucial and is a factor that shows better results for GRNN in both accuracy and reliability.

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Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Temporal Convolution with Attention

AI ◽

10.3390/ai2010005 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 48-70

Author(s):

Wei Ming Tan ◽

T. Hui Teo

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Remaining Useful Life ◽

Sensor Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Multiple Time ◽

Data Set ◽

Form Complex ◽

Useful Life

Prognostic techniques attempt to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a subsystem or a component. Such techniques often use sensor data which are periodically measured and recorded into a time series data set. Such multivariate data sets form complex and non-linear inter-dependencies through recorded time steps and between sensors. Many current existing algorithms for prognostic purposes starts to explore Deep Neural Network (DNN) and its effectiveness in the field. Although Deep Learning (DL) techniques outperform the traditional prognostic algorithms, the networks are generally complex to deploy or train. This paper proposes a Multi-variable Time Series (MTS) focused approach to prognostics that implements a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with attention mechanism. The convolution filters work to extract the abstract temporal patterns from the multiple time series, while the attention mechanisms review the information across the time axis and select the relevant information. The results suggest that the proposed method not only produces a superior accuracy of RUL estimation but it also trains many folds faster than the reported works. The superiority of deploying the network is also demonstrated on a lightweight hardware platform by not just being much compact, but also more efficient for the resource restricted environment.

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