Research on Software Project Schedule Management Method based on Monte Carlo Simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuo Zhang ◽  
Lan Jin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Management Method

On Using Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Risk Management

2016 ◽  
pp. 150-173
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor ◽  
Maria Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Cost

This chapter covers the essentials of using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique (MSC) for project schedule and cost risk analysis. It offers a description of the steps involved in performing a Monte Carlo simulation and provides the basic probability and statistical concepts that MSC is based on. Further, a simple practical spreadsheet example goes through the steps presented before to show how MCS can be used in practice to assess the cost and duration risk of a project and ultimately to enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgments.

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

scholarly journals Analysis of modern construction projects using montecarlo simulation technique

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.19) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
A. M. Arunmohan ◽  
M. Lakshmi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Montecarlo Simulation ◽  
Total Project Cost ◽  
Total Project

Today, Construction based Industry is the prospering industry which has a high economical influence on any nation. Delay in the huge construction project increases the total project cost. Henceforth, uncertainties as well as risks must be significantly regarded during the project. For organizing and completing the projects in a financially, timely and qualitatively accountable manner, careful scheduling of projects is compulsory. Effectual scheduling of project assures project success. This study concentrates on qualitative analysis, risk identification, together with quantitative analysis. The targets are i) to ascertain the key risk aspects that disturb the project schedule, and ii) to find the probability of finishing the project within specified time. Questionnaires are distributed amongst 20 industry practitioners with disparate experience from [1] to [25] years.  Quantitative analysis is made by the methods like Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and PERT. @RISK by Palisade corp. is utilized for MCS.

Study on Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in Construction Schedule Management

2013 ◽  
Vol 859 ◽  
pp. 284-288
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 68%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

Procurement Risk Management of Engineering Materials Based on Uncertain Rising Prices

2012 ◽  
Vol 174-177 ◽  
pp. 3219-3222
Author(s):  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Economic Order Quantity ◽  
Purchasing Management ◽  
Order Quantity ◽  
Management Method ◽  
Engineering Materials ◽  
Procurement Risk

Practical risk purchasing management method of engineering materials is put forward by using Monte Carlo Simulation. First, the calculation method of economic order quantity is put forward based on rising price. Second, appropriate insurance inventory is calculated when material requirements is variable.

scholarly journals Examining the Value of Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Time Management

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Goran Avlijas
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Research Question: This paper investigates whether the Monte Carlo simulation can be widely used as a practicable method for the analysis of the risks that impact project duration. Motivation: The main goal was to explore the use of the Monte Carlo simulation for project time management, and shed some light on the key benefits and drawbacks of this method. The paper reviewed the existing literature considering traditional use of the Monte Carlo for quantitative project risk analysis (such as Kwak & Ingall, 2007; Hulett, 2017) and elaborated the issue by suggesting potential improvements in terms of method modification for schedule management, such as event chain methodology proposed by Agarwal & Virine (2017). Another goal was to examine the capability of user-friendly software to provide project managers with some of these benefits. Idea: The core idea of this paper was to evaluate the value of the Monte Carlo method for project time and schedule management, by matching traditional foundations with modern techniques. Data: The paper used the secondary data extracted from relevant literature and project examples. A literature review reveals how the application of the Monte Carlo simulation evolved as a project management tool, along with specific benefits and concerns for its application. Tools: A detailed application of the Monte Carlo in predicting project duration is provided, and the applicability and viability of the method are proven through a case demonstration. Following the presentation of a practical example and discussion of the main features, some limitations and potential improvements to the Monte Carlo method are suggested. Findings: Even with the existence of certain limitations, the Monte Carlo simulation remains the primary method for quantitative analysis of project risks. Despite the Monte Carlo having been found to be applicable, adaptable and predictive of total project duration, it is found to be insufficiently used by practitioners. Contribution: The paper urges the need for research on successful diffusion of the Monte Carlo simulation and helps practitioners to understand the adaptability of the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for risk quantification and its use for effective duration planning of their projects.  

Monte Carlo Simulation for Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis

2017 ◽  
pp. 29-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Todd Hulett
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Risk Prioritization ◽  
Simulation Techniques ◽  
Integrated Cost ◽  
Schedule Risk Analysis

Evidence shows that project costs and schedules often overrun their initial plans. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate the most recent tools and methodologies available today in the application of Monte Carlo simulation techniques to quantify possible overruns in cost and schedule and to understand the sources of those overruns to facilitate risk mitigation actions. Notable methods described include the Risk Driver method, collecting risk data using individual confidential interviews, and use of iterative risk prioritization that facilitates risk focused risk mitigation. Emphasis is placed on the quality of the project schedule and on the quality of the risk data used. The use of prioritization of pre-mitigated for risk mitigation strategies shows how the methodology can be used as a dynamic tool of successful project management.

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