Trajectory prediction of traffic agents at urban intersections through learned interactions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sarkar ◽  
Krzysztof Czarnecki ◽  
Matt Angus ◽  
Changjian Li ◽  
Steven Waslander
Keyword(s):  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Traffic Agents

scholarly journals TrafficPredict: Trajectory Prediction for Heterogeneous Traffic-Agents

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 6120-6127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuexin Ma ◽  
Xinge Zhu ◽  
Sibo Zhang ◽  
Ruigang Yang ◽  
Wenping Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Large City ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Traffic Agents

To safely and efficiently navigate in complex urban traffic, autonomous vehicles must make responsible predictions in relation to surrounding traffic-agents (vehicles, bicycles, pedestrians, etc.). A challenging and critical task is to explore the movement patterns of different traffic-agents and predict their future trajectories accurately to help the autonomous vehicle make reasonable navigation decision. To solve this problem, we propose a long short-term memory-based (LSTM-based) realtime traffic prediction algorithm, TrafficPredict. Our approach uses an instance layer to learn instances’ movements and interactions and has a category layer to learn the similarities of instances belonging to the same type to refine the prediction. In order to evaluate its performance, we collected trajectory datasets in a large city consisting of varying conditions and traffic densities. The dataset includes many challenging scenarios where vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians move among one another. We evaluate the performance of TrafficPredict on our new dataset and highlight its higher accuracy for trajectory prediction by comparing with prior prediction methods.

Probabilistic trajectory prediction of heterogeneous traffic agents based on layered spatio-temporal graph

2021 ◽  
pp. 095440702199766
Author(s):  
Xuexiang Zhang ◽  
Weiwei Zhang ◽  
Xuncheng Wu ◽  
Wenguan Cao
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Single Type ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Temporal Graph ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Traffic Agents

In order to safely and comfortably navigate in the complex urban traffic, it is necessary to make multi-modal predictions of autonomous vehicles for the next trajectory of various traffic participants, with the continuous movement trend and inertia of the surrounding traffic agents taken into account. At present, most trajectory prediction methods focus on prediction on future behavior of traffic agents but with limited, consideration of the response of traffic agents to the future behavior of the ego-agent. Moreover, it can only predict the trajectory of single-type agents, which make it impossible to learn interaction in a complex environment between traffic agents. In this paper, we proposed a graph-based heterogeneous traffic agents trajectory prediction model LSTGHP, which consists of the following three parts: (1) layered spatio-temporal graph module; (2) ego-agent motion module; (3) trajectory prediction module, which can realize multi-modal prediction of future trajectories of traffic agents with different semantic categories in the scene. To evaluate its performance, we collected trajectory datasets of heterogeneous traffic agents in a time-varying, highly dynamic urban intersection environment, where vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians interacted with each other in the scene. It can be drawn from experimental results that our model can improve its prediction accuracy while interacting at a close range. Compared with the previous prediction methods, the model has less prediction error in the trajectory prediction of heterogeneous traffic agents.

scholarly journals Experimental Validation on Intersection Turning Trajectory Prediction Method for Advanced Driver Assistance System Based on Triclothoidal Curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 5900
Author(s):  
Yohei Fujinami ◽  
Pongsathorn Raksincharoensak ◽  
Shunsaku Arita ◽  
Rei Kato
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Smooth Curve ◽  
Assistance System ◽  
Driver Assistance ◽  
Driver Assistance Systems ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Left Hand

Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) for crash avoidance, when making a right-turn in left-hand traffic or left-turn in right-hand traffic, are expected to further reduce the number of traffic accidents caused by automobiles. Accurate future trajectory prediction of an ego vehicle for risk prediction is important to activate the assistance system correctly. Our objectives are to propose a trajectory prediction method for ADAS for safe intersection turnings and to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method. Our proposed curve generation method is capable of generating a smooth curve without discontinuities in the curvature. By incorporating the curve generation method into the vehicle trajectory prediction, the proposed method could simulate the actual driving path of human drivers at a low computational cost. The curve would be required to define positions, angles, and curvatures at its initial and terminal points. Driving experiments conducted at real city traffic intersections proved that the proposed method could predict the trajectory with a high degree of accuracy for various shapes and sizes of the intersections. This paper also describes a method to determine the terminal conditions of the curve generation method from intersection features. We set a hypothesis where the conditions can be defined individually from intersection geometry. From the hypothesis, a formula to determine the parameter was derived empirically from the driving experiments. Public road driving experiments indicated that the parameters for the trajectory prediction could be appropriately estimated by the obtained empirical formula.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Bounds on Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Using Scenario Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 2385-2390
Author(s):  
Xun Shen ◽  
Xingguo Zhang ◽  
Pongsathorn Raksincharoensak
Keyword(s):  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Vehicle Trajectory ◽  
Vehicle Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Scenario Approach

A prediction model of vessel trajectory based on generative adversarial network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Senjie Wang ◽  
Zhengwei He
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
Vessel Motion

Abstract Trajectory prediction is an important support for analysing the vessel motion behaviour, judging the vessel traffic risk and collision avoidance route planning of intelligent ships. To improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction in complex situations, a Generative Adversarial Network with Attention Module and Interaction Module (GAN-AI) is proposed to predict the trajectories of multiple vessels. Firstly, GAN-AI can infer all vessels’ future trajectories simultaneously when in the same local area. Secondly, GAN-AI is based on adversarial architecture and trained by competition for better convergence. Thirdly, an interactive module is designed to extract the group motion features of the multiple vessels, to achieve better performance at the ship encounter situations. GAN-AI has been tested on the historical trajectory data of Zhoushan port in China; the experimental results show that the GAN-AI model improves the prediction accuracy by 20%, 24% and 72% compared with sequence to sequence (seq2seq), plain GAN, and the Kalman model. It is of great significance to improve the safety management level of the vessel traffic service system and judge the degree of ship traffic risk.

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