scholarly journals TrafficPredict: Trajectory Prediction for Heterogeneous Traffic-Agents

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 6120-6127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuexin Ma ◽  
Xinge Zhu ◽  
Sibo Zhang ◽  
Ruigang Yang ◽  
Wenping Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Large City ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Traffic Agents

To safely and efficiently navigate in complex urban traffic, autonomous vehicles must make responsible predictions in relation to surrounding traffic-agents (vehicles, bicycles, pedestrians, etc.). A challenging and critical task is to explore the movement patterns of different traffic-agents and predict their future trajectories accurately to help the autonomous vehicle make reasonable navigation decision. To solve this problem, we propose a long short-term memory-based (LSTM-based) realtime traffic prediction algorithm, TrafficPredict. Our approach uses an instance layer to learn instances’ movements and interactions and has a category layer to learn the similarities of instances belonging to the same type to refine the prediction. In order to evaluate its performance, we collected trajectory datasets in a large city consisting of varying conditions and traffic densities. The dataset includes many challenging scenarios where vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians move among one another. We evaluate the performance of TrafficPredict on our new dataset and highlight its higher accuracy for trajectory prediction by comparing with prior prediction methods.

Probabilistic trajectory prediction of heterogeneous traffic agents based on layered spatio-temporal graph

2021 ◽  
pp. 095440702199766
Author(s):  
Xuexiang Zhang ◽  
Weiwei Zhang ◽  
Xuncheng Wu ◽  
Wenguan Cao
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Single Type ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Temporal Graph ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Traffic Agents

In order to safely and comfortably navigate in the complex urban traffic, it is necessary to make multi-modal predictions of autonomous vehicles for the next trajectory of various traffic participants, with the continuous movement trend and inertia of the surrounding traffic agents taken into account. At present, most trajectory prediction methods focus on prediction on future behavior of traffic agents but with limited, consideration of the response of traffic agents to the future behavior of the ego-agent. Moreover, it can only predict the trajectory of single-type agents, which make it impossible to learn interaction in a complex environment between traffic agents. In this paper, we proposed a graph-based heterogeneous traffic agents trajectory prediction model LSTGHP, which consists of the following three parts: (1) layered spatio-temporal graph module; (2) ego-agent motion module; (3) trajectory prediction module, which can realize multi-modal prediction of future trajectories of traffic agents with different semantic categories in the scene. To evaluate its performance, we collected trajectory datasets of heterogeneous traffic agents in a time-varying, highly dynamic urban intersection environment, where vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians interacted with each other in the scene. It can be drawn from experimental results that our model can improve its prediction accuracy while interacting at a close range. Compared with the previous prediction methods, the model has less prediction error in the trajectory prediction of heterogeneous traffic agents.

Long Short-Term Memory-Based Human-Driven Vehicle Longitudinal Trajectory Prediction in a Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Environment

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812199347
Author(s):  
Lei Lin ◽  
Siyuan Gong ◽  
Srinivas Peeta ◽  
Xia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

The advent of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will change driving behavior and travel environment, and provide opportunities for safer, smoother, and smarter road transportation. During the transition from the current human-driven vehicles (HDVs) to a fully CAV traffic environment, the road traffic will consist of a “mixed” traffic flow of HDVs and CAVs. Equipped with multiple sensors and vehicle-to-vehicle communications, a CAV can track surrounding HDVs and receive trajectory data of other CAVs in communication range. These trajectory data can be leveraged with recent advances in deep learning methods to potentially predict the trajectories of a target HDV. Based on these predictions, CAVs can react to circumvent or mitigate traffic flow oscillations and accidents. This study develops attention-based long short-term memory (LSTM) models for HDV longitudinal trajectory prediction in a mixed flow environment. The model and a few other LSTM variants are tested on the Next Generation Simulation US 101 dataset with different CAV market penetration rates (MPRs). Results illustrate that LSTM models that utilize historical trajectories from surrounding CAVs perform much better than those that ignore information even when the MPR is as low as 0.2. The attention-based LSTM models can provide more accurate multi-step longitudinal trajectory predictions. Further, grid-level average attention weight analysis is conducted and the CAVs with higher impact on the target HDV’s future trajectories are identified.

scholarly journals Trajectory prediction based on long short-term memory network and Kalman filter using hurricanes as an example

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 1005-1023
Author(s):  
Wanting Qin ◽  
Jun Tang ◽  
Cong Lu ◽  
Songyang Lao
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Moving Objects ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

AbstractTrajectory data can objectively reflect the moving law of moving objects. Therefore, trajectory prediction has high application value. Hurricanes often cause incalculable losses of life and property, trajectory prediction can be an effective means to mitigate damage caused by hurricanes. With the popularization and wide application of artificial intelligence technology, from the perspective of machine learning, this paper trains a trajectory prediction model through historical trajectory data based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network. An improved LSTM (ILSTM) trajectory prediction algorithm that improves the prediction of the simple LSTM is proposed, and the Kalman filter is used to filter the prediction results of the improved LSTM algorithm, which is called LSTM-KF. Through simulation experiments of Atlantic hurricane data from 1851 to 2016, compared to other LSTM and ILSTM algorithms, it is found that the LSTM-KF trajectory prediction algorithm has the lowest prediction error and the best prediction effect.

scholarly journals A Game Theory-Based Approach for Modeling Autonomous Vehicle Behavior in Congested, Urban Lane-Changing Scenarios

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1523
Author(s):  
Nikita Smirnov ◽  
Yuzhou Liu ◽  
Aso Validi ◽  
Walter Morales-Alvarez ◽  
Cristina Olaverri-Monreal
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Road User ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
User Interactions ◽  
Lane Changing

Autonomous vehicles are expected to display human-like behavior, at least to the extent that their decisions can be intuitively understood by other road users. If this is not the case, the coexistence of manual and autonomous vehicles in a mixed environment might affect road user interactions negatively and might jeopardize road safety. To this end, it is highly important to design algorithms that are capable of analyzing human decision-making processes and of reproducing them. In this context, lane-change maneuvers have been studied extensively. However, not all potential scenarios have been considered, since most works have focused on highway rather than urban scenarios. We contribute to the field of research by investigating a particular urban traffic scenario in which an autonomous vehicle needs to determine the level of cooperation of the vehicles in the adjacent lane in order to proceed with a lane change. To this end, we present a game theory-based decision-making model for lane changing in congested urban intersections. The model takes as input driving-related parameters related to vehicles in the intersection before they come to a complete stop. We validated the model by relying on the Co-AutoSim simulator. We compared the prediction model outcomes with actual participant decisions, i.e., whether they allowed the autonomous vehicle to drive in front of them. The results are promising, with the prediction accuracy being 100% in all of the cases in which the participants allowed the lane change and 83.3% in the other cases. The false predictions were due to delays in resuming driving after the traffic light turned green.

Pedestrians, Autonomous Vehicles, and Cities

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Millard-Ball
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Urban Neighborhoods ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Strategic Interactions ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Self Driving Cars ◽  
Time Autonomous

Autonomous vehicles, popularly known as self-driving cars, have the potential to transform travel behavior. However, existing analyses have ignored strategic interactions with other road users. In this article, I use game theory to analyze the interactions between pedestrians and autonomous vehicles, with a focus on yielding at crosswalks. Because autonomous vehicles will be risk-averse, the model suggests that pedestrians will be able to behave with impunity, and autonomous vehicles may facilitate a shift toward pedestrian-oriented urban neighborhoods. At the same time, autonomous vehicle adoption may be hampered by their strategic disadvantage that slows them down in urban traffic.

scholarly journals Research on the Comfort of Vehicle Passengers Considering the Vehicle Motion State and Passenger Physiological Characteristics: Improving the Passenger Comfort of Autonomous Vehicles

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 6821
Author(s):  
Chang Wang ◽  
Xia Zhao ◽  
Rui Fu ◽  
Zhen Li
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Control Algorithm ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Physiological Characteristics ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Passenger Comfort ◽  
Vehicle Motion

Comfort is a significant factor that affects passengers’ choice of autonomous vehicles. The comfort of an autonomous vehicle is largely determined by its control algorithm. Therefore, if the comfort of passengers can be predicted based on factors that affect comfort and the control algorithm can be adjusted, it can be beneficial to improve the comfort of autonomous vehicles. In view of this, in the present study, a human-driven experiment was carried out to simulate the typical driving state of a future autonomous vehicle. In the experiment, vehicle motion parameters and the comfort evaluation results of passengers with different physiological characteristics were collected. A single-factor analysis method and binary logistic regression analysis model were used to determine the factors that affect the evaluation results of passenger comfort. A passenger comfort prediction model was established based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network model. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the passenger comfort prediction model reached 84%, which can provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of the control algorithm and path trajectory of autonomous vehicles.

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