Effects of probability distribution choice on likelihood estimates in risk analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaofeng Huang ◽  
Justin Zwolski
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis

The Method of Probabilistic Nodes Combination in Decision Making and Risk Analysis

2016 ◽  
pp. 32-60
Author(s):  
Dariusz Jacek Jakóbczak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Characteristic Points ◽  
Basic Probability

Proposed method, called Probabilistic Nodes Combination (PNC), is the method of 2D curve interpolation and extrapolation using the set of key points (knots or nodes). Nodes can be treated as characteristic points of data for modeling and analyzing. The model of data can be built by choice of probability distribution function and nodes combination. PNC modeling via nodes combination and parameter ? as probability distribution function enables value anticipation in risk analysis and decision making. Two-dimensional curve is extrapolated and interpolated via nodes combination and different functions as discrete or continuous probability distribution functions: polynomial, sine, cosine, tangent, cotangent, logarithm, exponent, arc sin, arc cos, arc tan, arc cot or power function. Novelty of the paper consists of two generalizations: generalization of previous MHR method with various nodes combinations and generalization of linear interpolation with different (no basic) probability distribution functions and nodes combinations.

Comparative Seismic Risk Analysis of Existing Low-Rise RC Buildings Retrofitted by Metallic Energy Dissipating Devices

2013 ◽  
Vol 470 ◽  
pp. 1085-1088
Author(s):  
Dong Hyeon Shin ◽  
Jin Young Park ◽  
Hyung Joon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Damage Index ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Probabilistic Characteristic ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Damage Indices ◽  
Rc Building

Existing non-seismically detailed low-rise RC buildings have higher seismic risks that are dependent on their seismic capacities and demand of building sites. Seismic risk analysis can be performed considering probabilistic characteristic of the structural damage. Structural damage is more accurately quantified by the damage indices than by a single engineering parameter. This study carries out comparative seismic risk analysis of a prototype building with and without metallic energy dissipating devices. Based on the probability distribution of damage index, it is demonstrated that the application of well-designed MEDDs to low-rise RC building can reduce its potential seismic risk.

scholarly journals A Stepwise Risk Assessment for Explosion Events considering Probability Distribution of Explosion Load Parameters

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Ki-Yeob Kang ◽  
Xiangyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Explosion Pressure ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Acceptance Range ◽  
Explosion Load ◽  
Explosion Risk

The potential risk of explosion always exists in offshore topside facilities that deal with flammable materials. Thus, explosion risk analysis taking into account possible scenarios should be performed during the design process to reduce probability of such terrible accidents. There are several technical documents for explosion risk analysis. The analysis usually includes performance criteria, risk acceptance range, and corresponding explosion design load taking into account explosion pressure. However, this standard procedure is not sufficient to assess the potential risk of explosion, since it is usually based solely on the severity of overpressure. Therefore, more in-depth analysis is required to understand the potential risk taking explosion wave profiles into account. In the present paper, a stepwise analysis of gas explosion risk elements has been performed. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of explosion risk have been performed based on the framework of typical explosion risk analysis methods. In addition, both the probability distribution of explosion load parameters taking into account overpressure and its impulse and their correlation have been investigated extensively.

scholarly journals Theoretical Aspects on Measures of Directed Information with Simulations

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 587
Author(s):  
Thomas Gkelsinis ◽  
Alex Karagrigoriou
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Fat Tails ◽  
Quantitative Characteristics ◽  
Directed Information ◽  
Robust Statistical Methods ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

Measures of directed information are obtained through classical measures of information by taking into account specific qualitative characteristics of each event. These measures are classified into two main categories, the entropic and the divergence measures. Many times in statistics we wish to emphasize not only on the quantitative characteristics but also on the qualitative ones. For example, in financial risk analysis it is common to take under consideration the existence of fat tails in the distribution of returns of an asset (especially the left tail) and in biostatistics to use robust statistical methods to trim extreme values. Motivated by these needs in this work we present, study and provide simulations for measures of directed information. These measures quantify the information with emphasis on specific parts (or events) of their probability distribution, without losing the whole information of the less significant parts and at the same time by concentrating on the information of the parts we care about the most.

scholarly journals Support for Expert Estimations in Transportation Projects

10.14311/910 ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Pastor ◽  
P. Novotný ◽  
J. Melechovský
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Criterion ◽  
Financial Assessment ◽  
Indirect Determination ◽  
Transportation Projects ◽  
Probabilistic Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Features

This paper deals with risk analysis as a part of the financial assessment of transportation projects. Two approaches to risk assessment are discussed. A risk can be evaluated either directly in terms of the probabilistic distribution of the assessment criterion; or an indirect determination of the risk can be applied without constructing the probability distribution, but by determining the characteristic features of the project. 

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO MEASURING PRICE RISK OF THE ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-35
Author(s):  
MAKARCHUK Ivan ◽  
FEDULOVA Iryna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Key Indicators

Background. Every manager faces analyzing problem and forecasting indicators in the process of making management decisions that are random variables, and therefore they are associated with risk and uncertainty. Their realization is possible in the future, but today we need to understand the risk level that can be encountered in the activity process and prepare for it in advance. Analysis of recent research and publications has shown that probabilistic approach is the most commonly used tool for risk assessment and it is based on probability theory. The aim of the article is to consider the tools of the probabilistic approach to riska ssessment. According to this approach, risk assessment is carried out for products price that have a normal law distribution and for which we can use an integrated probability distri­bution function and the key indicators that underlie its structure. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of risk analysis by the probabilistic approach is the consideration of the initial data as expected values of some random variables with known laws of probability distribution. Results. The use of tools of probabilistic approach to risk assessment of product pricing is considered. It is based on the assumption that a normal probability distribution law, an integral probability distribution function, and the key indicators that underlie its construction can be used to analyze market price risk. Conclusion. Probabilistic approach allows with minimal effort to understand the probability of obtaining the desired result, which is related to the purpose of the enterprise, or which result can be obtained with the desired probability and determine their acceptability. Keywords: risk, risk analysis, risk assessment, probabilistic approach, integral pro­bability distribution function.

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