Towards Validating Prediction Systems for Process Understandability: Measuring Process Understandability

Author(s):  
Joachim Melcher ◽  
Detlef Seese
1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 389-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chr. de Vegt

AbstractReduction techniques as applied to astrometric data material tend to split up traditionally into at least two different classes according to the observational technique used, namely transit circle observations and photographic observations. Although it is not realized fully in practice at present, the application of a blockadjustment technique for all kind of catalogue reductions is suggested. The term blockadjustment shall denote in this context the common adjustment of the principal unknowns which are the positions, proper motions and certain reduction parameters modelling the systematic properties of the observational process. Especially for old epoch catalogue data we frequently meet the situation that no independent detailed information on the telescope properties and other instrumental parameters, describing for example the measuring process, is available from special calibration observations or measurements; therefore the adjustment process should be highly self-calibrating, that means: all necessary information has to be extracted from the catalogue data themselves. Successful applications of this concept have been made already in the field of aerial photogrammetry.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-125
Author(s):  
Jaharuddin Jahar ◽  
Melia Rostiana ◽  
R Melda Maesarach

The purpose of this study was to decide the elements of performance at PT. General Takaful Insurance, to find out how to measure performance using the scorecard approach that is by measuring process performance and results performance, and interpreting in the form of conclusions. In this study, researchers tested apply maslahah at PT. General Takaful Insurance with a case study design. This research is a type of quantitative and qualitative research because it uses measurement data through formulas and if interpretative qualitative, and the data used are primary and secondary data. Data collection methods used are observation, interviews and documentation. The results showed that PT. General Takaful Insurance received a value of the performance benefit process of 0.7 which indicates that the company simply applied benefits in terms of process performance. And behave the benefit of PT. General Takaful Insurance got a value of 0.89 which shows that the company is quite good in providing benefits to stakeholders and shareholders. Keyword: Performance, Insurance, Scorecard Maslahah


1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 19-23
Author(s):  
Tony Challoner

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1475
Author(s):  
Vladimir Korenbaum ◽  
Tatiana Chernysheva ◽  
Victorya Galay ◽  
Roman Galay ◽  
Alexandr Ustinov ◽  
...  

Homeopathy is one of the applications in structured water influencing human health. The objective is to search for the physical basis of homeopathy. This methodology includes a study of absorption in the far IR spectral range, absorption and refraction in THz diapason, dynamic light scattering in the UV–near IR spectral range for the blinded samples of homeopathic-like preparations (HLP) of several parent substances and hidden/apparent controls, and statistical analysis on the significance of distinctions in spectral data between ensembles of HLP of each parent substance and ensembles of hidden/apparent controls. The analysis of nine independent blind studies of aqueous HLP of several parent substances gave statistically significant spectral differences in some preparations with an apparent control (25 comparisons of 35) and a hidden control (11 comparisons of 40). The revealed dominance in the occurrence frequency of differences in any HLP with an apparent control can be treated as involving most of these changes to the samples by the spectral measuring process. This allows interpreting the main mechanism of manifestation of the spectral changes found as the “observer effect”. The therapeutic effect of HLP may be assumed as a combination of the “observer effect” from the physician side and a “placebo effect” from the patient side.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).


Author(s):  
Julia Slingo ◽  
Tim Palmer

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation.


1968 ◽  
Vol 213 (5) ◽  
pp. 451-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Haake ◽  
W. Weidlich

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