scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Reneé van Eyden ◽  
Josine Uwilingiye ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON INVESTMENT IN CROATIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
Marina Lolić Čipčić ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Reaction ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
The Impact

If we look at economic growth as a function of labour and capital then, aside from the labour force, investment is a key determinant of capital accumulation and, accordingly, a prerequisite for economic growth and prosperity. During the analysed period (1996:Q1-2015:Q4) investment in Croatia demonstrated pro-cyclically behaviour but showed a higher level of fluctuation then personal consumption or GDP. The aim of the paper is to examine the influence of oil prices on investment during the analysed period using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and to determine the nature of their relationship by permuting four different oil price indicators. The results indicate that investment initially react positively to the growth of oil prices after which their reaction to oil price growth becomes negative (and more pronounced than the initial positive reaction). Contribution of oil price changes to investment fluctuations were also found. Keywords: investment, oil prices

scholarly journals An estimation of the impact of the 2012 platinum-sector strike on the South African economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 302-320
Author(s):  
Johannes C Jordaan
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
The Impact

A Leontief-type economic-impact model for 2012 is used to estimate the potential impacts, in percentage terms, of the 2012 platinum-sector strike on the South African economy. Although it is impossible to incorporate and calculate all the potential impacts, such a model can provide an estimation based on sound statistics and methodologies. Understanding the potential, wider economic impacts of strike action can lead to valuable insights for policymakers, businesses and workers. This will hopefully result in improved policies, as well as enriched negotiations to find solutions to deadlocks in wage negotiations before such deadlocks progress to strike action. Data from the Department of Labour (DoL) shows that 103,155 workers participated in the strike in the metal-ores sector during 2012, and company annual reports indicate that this strike action lasted seven weeks on average. Estimates show that the monetary value of ounces lost by the platinum-related mining industry as a result of lost production during the strike periods amounted to R10.6 billion. Two scenarios are estimated that result in a gross domestic product (GDP) loss for 2012 of 0.53 per cent or R16.5 billion (Scenario 1), and of 0.49 per cent or R15.5 billion (Scenario 2). This implies that GDP growth could have been 3 per cent for Scenario 1 and 2.97 per cent for Scenario 2, instead of the actual GDP growth of 2.47 per cent. Exports could have been R9.05 billion higher for Scenario 1 and R8.4 billion higher for Scenario 2. The current-account deficit for 2012 could have been reduced to 4.93 per cent of GDP for Scenario 1 and to 4.9 per cent for Scenario 2, as against the actual deficit of 5.23 per cent. Tax income could have been R3.8 billion higher for Scenario 1 and R3.6 billion higher for Scenario 2. As a result, the government’s budget deficit could have been reduced to 5.13 per cent instead of 5.26 per cent. Expressing employment opportunities lost in terms of annual employment opportunities lost as a result of lost activity shows that this represents almost 25,000 employment opportunities for Scenario 1 and almost 23,300 such opportunities for Scenario 2.

scholarly journals Nonlinear effects of oil prices on inflation, growth, budget deficit, and unemployment

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (01) ◽  
pp. 75-91
Author(s):  
Trang Nguyen Thi Ngoc ◽  
Hong Dinh Thi Thu
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Sharp Reduction ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
The Impact

In oil-exporting countries such as members of the OPEC, fluctua-tions in oil prices exert a significant impact on the domestic econo-my. Currently, a sharp reduction in oil prices results in several ad-verse effects; however, for such a crude-oil exporter that is also an importer of petroleum products as Vietnam, does a rise or drop in oil prices is beneficial to its development? This paper attempts to de-termine the oil price threshold while analyzing oil price effects on several macro factors, such as inflation, GDP growth, budget deficit, and unemployment rate over the 2000–2015 period. Using TVAR model, we detect an oil price threshold of USD27.6/barrel. Moreover, an increase in the price of oil, which exceeds this threshold, will cause a rise in inflation, budget deficit, and unemployment rate. Still, there is no significant evidence of the impact of oil prices on GDP growth.

scholarly journals Do international economic developments affect the South African economy?

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
JA Swanepoel
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The South ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
International Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Globalisation has opened economies more, exposing them to more international shocks and increasing the challenges to which domestic economic policies must respond. This paper provides a starting point for the analysis of the impact of international economic developments on the South African economy by means of graphical illustrations, correlations coefficients and in some cases a VAR analysis. Although this paper has shed some light on the importance of international economic developments on the South African economy, more rigorous econometric investigation is needed to validate the arguments and to address many of the unresolved questions.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Some Reflections on Reparation in Post-Apartheid South Africa, using a Couple Therapy Intervention as a Microcosm of South African Society

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Hill ◽  
Sylvia Poss
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Couple Therapy ◽  
South African Society ◽  
Depressive Position ◽  
Central Hypothesis ◽  
Transference And Countertransference ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Therapy Intervention

The paper addresses the question of reparation in post-apartheid South Africa. The central hypothesis of the paper is that in South Africa current traumas or losses, such as the 2008 xenophobic attacks, may activate a ‘shared unconscious phantasy’ of irreparable damage inflicted by apartheid on the collective psyche of the South African nation which could block constructive engagement and healing. A brief couple therapy intervention by a white therapist with a black couple is used as a ‘microcosm’ to explore this question. The impact of an extreme current loss, when earlier losses have been sustained, is explored. Additionally, the impact of racial difference on the transference and countertransference between the therapist and the couple is explored to illustrate factors complicating the productive grieving and working through of the depressive position towards reparation.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Financial and monetary policy of the State and its impact on the income level and poverty reduction in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 964-990
Author(s):  
N.I. Kulikov ◽  
V.L. Parkhomenko ◽  
Akun Anna Stefani Rozi Mobio
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. We assess the impact of tight financial and monetary policy of the government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia on the level of household income and poverty reduction in Russia. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to analyze the results of financial and monetary policy in Russia and determine why the situation with household income and poverty has not changed for the recent six years, and the GDP growth rate in Russia is significantly lagging behind the global average. Methods. The study employs methods of analysis of scientific and information base, and synthesis of obtained data. The methodology and theoretical framework draw upon works of domestic and foreign scientists on economic and financial support to economy and population’s income. Results. We offer measures for liberalization of the financial and monetary policy of the government and the Central Bank to ensure changes in the structure of the Russian economy. The proposed alternative economic and financial policy of the State will enable the growth of real incomes of the population, poverty reduction by half by 2024, and annual GDP growth up to 6 per cent. Conclusions. It is crucial to change budget priorities, increase the salaries of public employees, introduce a progressive tax rate for individuals; to reduce the key rate to the value of annual inflation and limit the bank margin. The country needs a phased program to increase the population's income, which will ensure consumer demand.

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