scholarly journals Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth H. Boakes ◽  
Nicholas J.B. Isaac ◽  
Richard A. Fuller ◽  
Georgina M. Mace ◽  
Philip J.K. McGowan



Paleobiology ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Michelle M. Casey ◽  
Erin E. Saupe ◽  
Bruce S. Lieberman

Abstract Geographic range size and abundance are important determinants of extinction risk in fossil and extant taxa. However, the relationship between these variables and extinction risk has not been tested extensively during evolutionarily “quiescent” times of low extinction and speciation in the fossil record. Here we examine the influence of geographic range size and abundance on extinction risk during the late Paleozoic (Mississippian–Permian), a time of “sluggish” evolution when global rates of origination and extinction were roughly half those of other Paleozoic intervals. Analyses used spatiotemporal occurrences for 164 brachiopod species from the North American midcontinent. We found abundance to be a better predictor of extinction risk than measures of geographic range size. Moreover, species exhibited reductions in abundance before their extinction but did not display contractions in geographic range size. The weak relationship between geographic range size and extinction in this time and place may reflect the relative preponderance of larger-ranged taxa combined with the physiographic conditions of the region that allowed for easy habitat tracking that dampened both extinction and speciation. These conditions led to a prolonged period (19–25 Myr) during which standard macroevolutionary rules did not apply.



2016 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.L. Kubisch ◽  
V. Corbalán ◽  
N.R. Ibargüengoytía ◽  
B. Sinervo

Recently, Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328: 894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Blue Spiny Lizard (Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1866) in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction (i.e., the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high), we measured habitat-specific equations for the Te values of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Darwin’s Ground Gecko (Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885), Bariloche Lizard (Liolaemus pictus (Duméril and Bibron, 1837)), and Mountain Slope Lizard (Liolaemus elongatus Koslowsky, 1896) to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer from impacts of climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus populations and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.





2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1825) ◽  
pp. 20152772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Abelson

Increases in relative encephalization (RE), brain size after controlling for body size, comes at a great metabolic cost and is correlated with a host of cognitive traits, from the ability to count objects to higher rates of innovation. Despite many studies examining the implications and trade-offs accompanying increased RE, the relationship between mammalian extinction risk and RE is unknown. I examine whether mammals with larger levels of RE are more or less likely to be at risk of endangerment than less-encephalized species. I find that extant species with large levels of encephalization are at greater risk of endangerment, with this effect being strongest in species with small body sizes. These results suggest that RE could be a valuable asset in estimating extinction vulnerability. Additionally, these findings suggest that the cost–benefit trade-off of RE is different in large-bodied species when compared with small-bodied species.



2006 ◽  
Vol 273 (1604) ◽  
pp. 2969-2975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P Duncan ◽  
David M Forsyth

Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.



2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rupert Mathwin ◽  
Skye Wassens ◽  
Matthew Gibbs ◽  
Jeanne Young ◽  
Qifeng Ye ◽  
...  

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed the inundation patterns of wetlands under natural and regulated flow conditions and built stochastic population models to quantify the probability of local extinction under different inundation scenarios. Specifically, we explored the interplay of inundation frequency, habitat size, and successive dry years on the local extinction probability of the threatened southern bell frog Litoria raniformis in the Murray River floodplains of South Australia. We hypothesised that the changes in wetland inundation resulting from river regulation are driving the decline of L. raniformis in this system. Since river regulation began in the 1920s, the inundation frequency of many reliable breeding habitats has decreased to a point where they no longer support local populations. Increasing successive dry years drives the probability of local extinction, particularly in smaller wetlands. Larger wetlands and those with more frequent average inundation are less susceptible to these effects. Synthesis and Applications. Although the availability of suitable habitats has reduced, environmental water provision is a promising tool to mitigate the negative impacts of river regulation on amphibian populations. Our modelling approach can be used to prioritise the delivery of environmental water (through pumping or the operation of flow-regulating structures) to minimise the probability of local extinction in L. raniformis and potentially many other frog species. By quantifying the extinction risk of amphibian populations, we can strategically manage environmental water to reduce successive catastrophic breeding failures and increase the probability of persistence.



2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (8) ◽  
pp. 684 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Calder ◽  
J. B. Kirkpatrick

Global climatic change has been strongly implicated in the decline of many species. However, other processes can contribute towards the extinction risk of these species. Could management of these processes arrest or slow climatically related decline? We test the relationship between climate change, and other potential threatening factors, and the decline of Eucalyptus gunnii, a tree endemic to the subalpine regions of Tasmania, Australia. Through observing the spatial patterns of both climatic change and dieback, we found there was a stronger pattern of increasing droughts in the eastern part of the species range, the region which also displayed the worst dieback. A time series of aerial photographs revealed that the most severe drought periods in the last several decades have coincided with the most rapid tree decline. However, the sites that suffered the worst dieback were also more heavily used for stock grazing, a factor which had a stronger spatial relationship with tree decline than climate. Other factors were also implicated in the decline, including possum browsing. The good health of some populations in the most climatically stressed areas suggests that the amelioration of non-climatic stresses could be effective in maintaining the health of the surviving populations.



2015 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael A. Lara-Reséndiz ◽  
Héctor Gadsden ◽  
Philip C. Rosen ◽  
Barry Sinervo ◽  
Fausto R. Méndez-De la Cruz


2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (NA) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Hardie ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hutchings

The nature of species at the extremes of their ranges impinges fundamentally on diverse biological issues, including species’ range dynamics, population variability, speciation and conservation biology. We review the literature concerning genetic and ecological variation at species’ range edges, and discuss historical and contemporary forces that may generate observed trends, as well as their current and future implications. We discuss literature which shows how environmental, ecological and evolutionary factors act to limit species’ ranges, and how these factors impose selection for adaptation or dispersal in peripheral populations exposed to extreme and stochastic biotic and abiotic stressors. When conditions are sufficiently harsh such that local extinction is certain, peripheral populations may represent temporary offshoots from stable core populations. However, in cases where peripheral populations persist at the range edge under divergent or extreme conditions, biologically significant differences can arise from historical and contemporary ecological and evolutionary forces. In many such cases reviewed herein, peripheral populations tended to diverge from the species’ core, and to display lower genetic diversity or greater stress-adaptation. We conclude that while such populations may be of particular conservation value as significant components of intraspecific biodiversity or sources of evolutionary innovation and persistence during environmental change, small and greatly variable population size, especially combined with low genetic variability, can result in elevated extinction risk in harsh and stochastic peripheral environments. As a result, while peripheral populations should not be dismissed as evolutionary dead-ends destined for local extinction, neither should they be uncritically granted inherently superior significance based only on their peripheral position alone.



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