Weighted spatial dynamic shift‐share model as a forecasting tool for a regional economy: The case of South Korea

Cruise shipping has been extremely popular in recent years, and one of the fastest-growing areas has been the Mediterranean. In the paper, we examine the evaluation of possible competitive–cooperative relationships among Mediterranean cruise ports for the period 2000–2017. To this end, we use three models: the dynamic shift-share model, the Lotka–Volterra model (LVM), and the logistic model (LM). The evaluation of basic market indices is included for completeness. The analysis shows that cruise traffic is in a saturation phase. The shift-share and LVM models reveal that interaction among ports is not significant for the large ports, but could be essential for the small ones.

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Shift-Share Analysis in Tourism: Examination of Tourism Employment Change in a Region

Tourism Economics ◽

10.5367/000000002101298142 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 303-324 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Ercan Sirakaya ◽

Hwan-Suk Choi ◽

Turgut Var

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Static Method ◽

Theoretical Problem ◽

Employment Change ◽

Share Model ◽

The Us ◽

The Usa ◽

Employment Data ◽

Dynamic Shift

The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate the usefulness of the dynamic shift-share method in examining the performance of the tourism industry using time-series employment data for the State of Texas and the USA, and to compare its results with those of the traditional accounting based shift-share analysis. The findings show that, compared to the US average, the change in employment in Texas was mainly due to the strong national economy and not to the region's competitiveness or sectoral make-up. According to the findings, the use of a dynamic shift-share model eliminated one theoretical problem inherent in the classical static method.

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Analysis of Emigration in Europe Using the Spatial Dynamic Shift-Share Method

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia ◽

10.1515/foli-2015-0032 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 7-26 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Elżbieta Antczak ◽

Karolina Lewandowska-Gwarda

Keyword(s):

European Countries ◽

Reference Area ◽

Spatial Dynamic ◽

Global Effect ◽

Geographic Factors ◽

Spatial Weights ◽

Spatial Weights Matrix ◽

Global Mean ◽

Dynamic Shift

Abstract The aim of the paper is to examine the pace of change in emigration levels in 24 selected European countries from 1999 to 2012, by age, country and the reference area. The spatial dynamic shift-share method is used in this research. The study analyses each country’s share and identifies structural as well as geographic factors in the volume of the net global effect. It also considers a spatial weights matrix. Results reveal that the global mean pace of change in the emigration is positive. The pace of phenomenon is the fastest among individuals aged 45–64 and also 35–44 years and in Czech Rep., Lithuania, Spain, Hungary and Germany.

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