scholarly journals Institutional Effects on Decision Making on Public Lands: An Interagency Examination of Wildfire Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 811-811
Author(s):  
Derek Reiners
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Lands ◽  
Wildfire Management ◽  
Institutional Effects

Improving institutional incentives for public land management: an econometric analysis of school trust land leases

2005 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTHEW H. BONDS ◽  
JEFFREY J. POMPE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Schools ◽  
Public Lands ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Public Land ◽  
Boards Of Education ◽  
Public Land Management ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
School Trust

There is considerable interest in the proper management of public lands in the United States, but questions arise over what institutional arrangements may ensure proper land stewardship. Recently, the trust doctrine has been heralded as a way to motivate prudent decision making by land managers. School trust lands, which are managed to generate revenues for public schools, represent a long-standing example of the trust doctrine at work. We examine Mississippi school trust leases and show that the trustees, who are elected officials, maintain multiple conflicting objectives, which ultimately undermine the trust relationship. However, we find that a recent institutional change that made the Boards of Education (the fund recipients) the trustees, caused revenues to increase dramatically.

Estimating US federal wildland fire managers’ preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 212 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Tyron Venn ◽  
Matthew Wibbenmeyer ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Cost Containment ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Current Management ◽  
Wildfire Management

Wildfire management involves significant complexity and uncertainty, requiring simultaneous consideration of multiple, non-commensurate objectives. This paper investigates the tradeoffs fire managers are willing to make among these objectives using a choice experiment methodology that provides three key advancements relative to previous stated-preference studies directed at understanding fire manager preferences: (1) a more immediate relationship between the instrument employed in measuring preferences and current management practices and operational decision-support systems; (2) an explicit exploration of how sociopolitical expectations may influence decision-making and (3) consideration of fire managers’ relative prioritisation of cost-containment objectives. Results indicate that in the current management environment, choices among potential suppression strategies are driven largely by consideration of risk to homes and high-value watersheds and potential fire duration, and are relatively insensitive to increases in cost and personnel exposure. Indeed, when asked to choose the strategy they would expect to choose under current social and political constraints, managers favoured higher-cost suppression strategies, ceteris paribus. However, managers indicated they would personally prefer to pursue strategies that were more cost-conscious and proportionate with values at risk. These results confirm earlier studies that highlight the challenges managerial incentives and sociopolitical pressures create in achieving cost-containment objectives.

Combining wildfire behaviour simulations and complex network theory to support decision-making: A case-study in a Mediterranean region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno A. Aparício ◽  
Ana C.L. Sá ◽  
Francisco C. Santos ◽  
Chiara Bruni ◽  
José M.C. Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Wildfire Management ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Fire Properties

<p>Wildfires represent one of the most devastating natural disasters, bearing relevant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. The Mediterranean region is characterized by large and recurring summer wildfires that often jeopardize people’s safety. Currently, wildfire management largely (if not entirely) relies on wildfire suppression, despite growing evidence of its inefficiency to control the larger and more intense wildfires [1]. Moreover, climate change is expected to significantly affect the Mediterranean region and further exacerbate such hazard, even if global warming does not exceed 1.5°C (target of the Paris Agreement) [2]. Hence, fire prevention measures based on landscape fuel reduction strategies are crucial to decrease the magnitude of the impacts of future wildfires.</p><p>Here, we used FlamMap, a widely applied fire spread simulation system, to estimate fire spread and behaviour properties in the Monchique region, a highly fire-prone area, located in Southern Portugal. Five weather scenarios were defined based on hierarchical clustering analysis of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction data derived from the spreading days of large wildfires (larger than 100 ha) between 2001 and 2019. Complex networks were generated from fireline intensity and rate of spread estimates (proxies for the difficulty of suppression and safety) with the main goal of decreasing landscape fire hazard. More precisely, we aimed to: i) evaluate how different weather scenarios/conditions affect landscape connectivity; ii) identify the location of fuel treatments; and iii) assess the impact of the proposed fuel breaks on the fire properties. These challenges were addressed under the perspective of connectivity indexes and metrics from the field of network science.</p><p>The results show that, as expected, weather conditions affect both the amount of area with more intense wildfires and wildfire connectivity, with more severe weather conditions presenting the greatest hazards. Additionally, the identified optimal locations of fuel treatments were compared against the locations previously proposed for fuel breaks and the potential impact on fire properties of both was evaluated. Further analysis of the effectiveness of different management options (fraction of landscape treatment and extent of each intervention) will be assessed under the previously identified weather scenarios, considering the extent of high-intensity classes of fires and multiple landscape connectivity indexes. Based on our results, we discuss the best strategies to reduce wildfire hazard for different criteria and under different weather scenarios. Moreover, both methods can be used to assess fire transmission between land uses and then to identify the key values exposed. We demonstrate that combining network graphs and fire spread simulations have a large potential to support more informed decision-making and significantly wildfire impact mitigation.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>[1] Moreira, F., Ascoli, D., Safford, H. et al. (2020) Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 011001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab541e</p><p>[2] Turco, M., Rosa-Cánovas, J.J., Bedia, J. et al. (2018) Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models. Nature Communications 9, 3821. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z</p>

scholarly journals Budget Deficits and Fiscal Adjustments under Fragmented Decision Making: New Evidence on an Old Discussion

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-97
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Palaios
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Heterogeneous Preferences ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Institutional Effects ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
New Evidence

The purpose of this paper is to present the existing literature of political explanations for budget deficits and fiscal adjustments. The literature is distinguished initially in two broad categories, namely the effects of conflicts among agents with heterogeneous preferences and institutional effects. At the next stage the category of conflicts among agents is further distinguished in two approaches, namely political stability approach and weak government approach. The existing literature confirms that political instability leads to the strategic use of debt and therefore to higher fiscal deficits. Institutions are proved to contribute positively to the success of fiscal adjustments. However, interest groups with political power and the risk aversion character of politicians imply that fiscal adjustment is usually delayed and more costly.

scholarly journals Failed Collaborative Efforts Relating to Public Lands Use in Idaho’s Boulder-White Cloud Mountains Area

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 250 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Scott Lee
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Public Lands ◽  
Public Land ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Collaborative Decision Making ◽  
The Public ◽  
Collaborative Efforts ◽  
Collaborative Decision ◽  
Central Idaho

U.S. Representative Mike Simpson touted his collaboration efforts regarding the Central Idaho Economic Development and Recreation Act (CIEDRA). He stated he had worked hard to bring together different stakeholders representing local ranchers, local, state, and federal government officials, recreationists, wilderness proponents, and other interested groups and individuals to work toward resolving the public land use issues facing the Boulder-White Clouds area in Central Idaho. On its face it appeared to be a perfect example of collaborative decision making. Yet, CIEDRA failed every time it was introduced in Congress. Analysis of the process utilized by Simpson reveals that the CIEDRA collaboration was unsuccessful because there was, in fact, no collaboration. The necessary steps for collaborative decision making were not followed and ultimately, when resistance to the collaborative efforts was encountered early on in the process, a conscious switch was made to “shuttle diplomacy” which was ultimately unsuccessful.

scholarly journals Empowering strategic decision-making for wildfire management: avoiding the fear trap and creating a resilient landscape

Fire Ecology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Castellnou ◽  
Núria Prat-Guitart ◽  
Etel Arilla ◽  
Asier Larrañaga ◽  
Edgar Nebot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Wildfire Management ◽  
Defensive Strategies ◽  
Response Systems ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Emergency Response Systems

AbstractIn recent years, fire services in Mediterranean Europe have been overwhelmed by extreme wildfire behavior. As a consequence, fire management has moved to defensive strategies with a focus only on the known risks (the fear trap). In this region, wildfires can change rapidly, increasing the uncertainty and causing complex operational scenarios that impact society right from the initial hours. To address this challenge, proactive approaches are an alternative to defensive and reactive strategies.We propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty of decisions and the cost of each opportunity into the strategic decision-making process. The methodology takes into account values such as fire-fighting safety, organizational resilience, landscape resilience, and social values.Details of the methods and principles used to develop and implement a creative decision-making process that empower the fireline are provided. A tool that segregates the landscape into polygons of fire potential and defines the connectivity between those polygons is used. Two examples of operational implementation of this methodology are presented (2014 Tivissa Fire and 2015 Odena Fire).These methods facilitate the analysis of possible scenarios of resolution and the costs of the opportunities that help build resilient emergency response systems and prevent their collapse. Moreover, they help explain the risk to society and involve citizens in the decision-making process. These methods are based on the experience and lessons learned by European incident commanders, managers, and researchers collected during the last decade.

Discarding optimality: Throwing out the baby with the bathwater?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Reward Rate ◽  
Perceptual Decision ◽  
Standard Observer ◽  
Rate Maximization ◽  
Reward Rate Maximization ◽  
Descriptive Standard ◽  
Observer Model

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.

LPCD framework: Analytical tool or psychological model?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Danks
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Model ◽  
Psychological Reality ◽  
Psychological Theories ◽  
Target Article ◽  
Bayesian Decision Making

AbstractThe target article uses a mathematical framework derived from Bayesian decision making to demonstrate suboptimal decision making but then attributes psychological reality to the framework components. Rahnev & Denison's (R&D) positive proposal thus risks ignoring plausible psychological theories that could implement complex perceptual decision making. We must be careful not to slide from success with an analytical tool to the reality of the tool components.

Elaborating the role of reflection and individual differences in the study of folk-economic beliefs

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
History Of ◽  
Economic Beliefs

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.

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