scholarly journals Modeling the impact of temperature on fractional order dengue model with vertical transmission

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
Ozlem Defterli
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Dengue Disease ◽  
Host Interaction ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Dengue Epidemic

A dengue epidemic model with fractional order derivative is formulated to investigate the effect of temperature on the spread of the vector-host transmitted dengue disease. The model consists of system of fractional order differential equations formulated within Caputo fractional operator. The stability of the equilibrium points of the considered dengue model is studied. The corresponding basic reproduction number R_0 is derived and it is proved that if R_0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is locally asymptotically stable. L1 method is applied to solve the dengue model numerically. Finally, numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the analytical results showing the influence of thetemperature on the dynamics of the vector-host interaction in dengue epidemics.

scholarly journals A fractional-order love dynamical model with time delay for synergic couple : Stability analysis and Hopf bifurcation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SANTOSHI PANIGRAHI ◽  
Sunita Chand ◽  
S Balamuralitharan
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Fractional Order Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the fractional order love dynamic model with time delay for synergic couples in this manuscript. The quantitative analysis of the model has been done where the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points of the model have been analyzed. Under the impact of time delay, the Hopf bifurcation analysis of the model has been done. The stability analysis of the model has been studied with the reproduction number less than or greater than 1. By using Laplace transformation, the analysis of the model has been done. The analysis shows that the fractional order model with a time delay can sufficiently improve the components and invigorate the outcomes for either stable or unstable criteria. In this model, all unstable cases are converted to stable cases under neighbourhood points. For all parameters, the reproduction ranges have been described. Finally, to illustrate our derived results numerical simulations have been carried out by using MATLAB. Under the theoretical outcomes from parameter estimation, the love dynamical system is verified.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling on Double Quarantine Process in the Spread and Stability of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangyadatta Behera ◽  
Aswin Kumar Rauta ◽  
Yerra Shankar Rao ◽  
Sairam Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Analytical Result ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed on the spread and control of corona virus disease2019 (COVID19) to ascertain the impact of pre quarantine for suspected individuals having travel history ,immigrants and new born cases in the susceptible class following the lockdown or shutdown rules and adopted the post quarantine process for infected class. Set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are generated and parameters like natural mortality rate, rate of COVID-19 induced death, rate of immigrants, rate of transmission and recovery rate are integrated in the scheme. A detailed analysis of this model is conducted analytically and numerically. The local and global stability of the disease is discussed mathematically with the help of Basic Reproduction Number. The ODEs are solved numerically with the help of Runge-Kutta 4th order method and graphs are drawn using MATLAB software to validate the analytical result with numerical simulation. It is found that both results are in good agreement with the results available in the existing literatures. The stability analysis is performed for both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points. The theorems based on Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function are proved .It is found that the system is locally asymptotically stable at disease free and endemic equilibrium points for basic reproduction number less than one and globally asymptotically stable for basic reproduction number greater than one. Finding of this study suggest that COVID-19 would remain pandemic with the progress of time but would be stable in the long-term if the pre and post quarantine policy for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are implemented effectively followed by social distancing, lockdown and containment.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Christopher Saaha Bornaa ◽  
Baba Seidu ◽  
Yakubu Ibrahim Seini
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Early Interventions ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model is proposed to describe the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection with early interventions. Epidemiological studies have employed modeling to unravel knowledge that transformed the lives of families, communities, nations and the entire globe. The study established the stability of both disease free and endemic equilibria. Stability occurs when the reproduction number, R0, is less than unity for both disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of the model is established whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity. The reproduction number is also shown to be directly related to the transmission probability (β), rate at which latently infected individuals join the infected class (δ) and rate of recruitment (Λ). It is inversely related to natural death rate (μ), rate of early treatment (τ1), rate of hospitalization of infected individuals (θ) and Covid-induced death rate (σ). The analytical results established are confirmed by numerical simulation of the model.

scholarly journals Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Cyprus using a Mathematical Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Sanlidag ◽  
Nazife Sultanoglu ◽  
Bilgen Kaymakamzade ◽  
Evren Hincal ◽  
Murat Sayan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The present study studied the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern-Cyprus (NC) by using real data and a designed mathematical model. The model consisted of two equilibrium points, which were disease-free and epidemic. The stability of the equilibrium points was determined by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number (𝑹𝟎). If 𝑹𝟎 < 1, the disease eventually disappears, if 𝑹𝟎 ≥ 1, the presence of an epidemic is stated. 𝑹𝟎 has been calculated patient zero, with a range of 2.38 to 0.65. Currently, the 𝑹𝟎 for NC was found to be 0.65, indicating that NC is free from the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Cyprus using a Mathematical Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Sanlidag ◽  
Nazife Sultanoglu ◽  
Bilgen Kaymakamzade ◽  
Evren Hincal ◽  
Murat Sayan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The present study studied the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern-Cyprus (NC) by using real data and a designed mathematical model. The model consisted of two equilibrium points, which were disease-free and epidemic. The stability of the equilibrium points was determined by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number (𝑹𝟎). If 𝑹𝟎 < 1, the disease eventually disappears, if 𝑹𝟎 ≥ 1, the presence of an epidemic is stated. 𝑹𝟎 has been calculated patient zero, with a range of 2.38 to 0.65. Currently, the 𝑹𝟎 for NC was found to be 0.65, indicating that NC is free from the SARS-CoV-2epidemic.

Dynamical Analysis of a Fractional-Order Hantavirus Infection Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Moustafa ◽  
Mohd Hafiz Mohd ◽  
Ahmad Izani Ismail ◽  
Farah Aini Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Fractional Order System ◽  
Order System ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Hantavirus Infection ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper considers a Hantavirus infection model consisting of a system of fractional-order ordinary differential equations with logistic growth. The fractional-order model describes the spread of Hantavirus infection in a system consisting of a population of susceptible and infected mice. The existence, uniqueness, non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions are established. In addition, the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points of the fractional order system and the basic reproduction number are studied. The impact of basic reproduction number and carrying capacity on the stability of the fractional order system are also theoretically and numerically investigated.

scholarly journals A study on the AH1N1/09 influenza transmission model with the fractional Caputo–Fabrizio derivative

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahram Rezapour ◽  
Hakimeh Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Fixed Point Theory ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Point Theory ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Influenza Transmission ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract We study the SEIR epidemic model for the spread of AH1N1 influenza using the Caputo–Fabrizio fractional-order derivative. The reproduction number of system and equilibrium points are calculated, and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium point is investigated. We prove the existence of solution for the model by using fixed point theory. Using the fractional Euler method, we get an approximate solution to the model. In the numerical section, we present a simulation to examine the system, in which we calculate equilibrium points of the system and examine the behavior of the resulting functions at the equilibrium points. By calculating the results of the model for different fractional order, we examine the effect of the derivative order on the behavior of the resulting functions and obtained numerical values. We also calculate the results of the integer-order model and examine their differences with the results of the fractional-order model.

scholarly journals Complex mathematical SIR model for spreading of COVID-19 virus with Mittag-Leffler kernel

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Talay Akyildiz ◽  
Fehaid Salem Alshammari
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Exponential Kernel ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThis paper investigates a new model on coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19), that is complex fractional SIR epidemic model with a nonstandard nonlinear incidence rate and a recovery, where derivative operator with Mittag-Leffler kernel in the Caputo sense (ABC). The model has two equilibrium points when the basic reproduction number $R_{0} > 1$ R 0 > 1 ; a disease-free equilibrium $E_{0}$ E 0 and a disease endemic equilibrium $E_{1}$ E 1 . The disease-free equilibrium stage is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number $R_{0} <1$ R 0 < 1 , we show that the endemic equilibrium state is locally asymptotically stable if $R_{0} > 1$ R 0 > 1 . We also prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution for the Atangana–Baleanu SIR model by using a fixed-point method. Since the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative gives better precise results to the derivative with exponential kernel because of having fractional order, hence, it is a generalized form of the derivative with exponential kernel. The numerical simulations are explored for various values of the fractional order. Finally, the effect of the ABC fractional-order derivative on suspected and infected individuals carefully is examined and compared with the real data.

scholarly journals Mathematical Analysis of a Diarrhoea Model in the Presence of Vaccination and Treatment Waves with Sensitivity Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 1107-1114
Author(s):  
E.I. Akinola ◽  
B.E. Awoyemi ◽  
I.A. Olopade ◽  
O.D. Falowo ◽  
T.O. Akinwumi
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Runge Kutta Method ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Uniqueness And Existence ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Order Four ◽  
Disease Free

In this study, the diarrhoea model is developed based on basic mathematical modelling techniques leading to a system (five compartmental model) of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Mathematical analysis of the model is then carried out on the uniqueness and existence of the model to know the region where the model is epidemiologically feasible. The equilibrium points of the model and the stability of the disease-free state were also derived by finding the reproduction number. We then progressed to running a global sensitivity analysis on the reproduction number with respect to all the parameters in it, and four (4) parameters were found sensitive. The work was concluded with numerical simulations on Maple 18 using Runge-Kutta method of order four (4) where the values of six (6) parameters present in the model were each varied successively while all other parameters were held constant so as to know the behaviour and effect of the varied parameter on how diarrhoea spreads in the population. The results from the sensitivity analysis and simulations were found to be in sync.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Christopher Saaha Bornaa ◽  
Baba Seidu ◽  
Yakubu Ibrahim Seini
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Early Interventions ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model is proposed to describe the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection with early interventions. Epidemiological studies have employed modeling to unravel knowledge that transformed the lives of families, communities, nations and the entire globe. The study established the stability of both disease free and endemic equilibria. Stability occurs when the reproduction number, R0, is less than unity for both disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of the model is established whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity. The reproduction number is also shown to be directly related to the transmission probability (β), rate at which latently infected individuals join the infected class (δ) and rate of recruitment (Λ). It is inversely related to natural death rate (μ), rate of early treatment (τ1), rate of hospitalization of infected individuals (θ) and Covid-induced death rate (σ). The analytical results established are confirmed by numerical simulation of the model.

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