Demonstration of a New, Fast Probability Integration Method for Reliability Analysis

1987 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yih-Tsuen Wu
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Integration Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
New Method ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Accurate Probability

The performance of a new, fast probability integration method which combines an improved equivalent normal concept and a scheme for linearizing a quadratic limit state is carefully examined. The examples tested include various combinations of linear and nonlinear limit states with normal and non-normal variables; some examples are considered the worst possible cases. It is demonstrated that the new method is able to provide accurate probability-of-failure estimates for most cases and performs reasonably well when the Rackwitz-Fiessler method produces severe errors.

Reliability analysis of wood I-joists

1993 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 564-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. O. Foschi ◽  
F. Z. Yao
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Load Carrying Capacity ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Strength Limit ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Load Carrying

This paper presents a reliability analysis of wood I-joists for both strength and serviceability limit states. Results are obtained from a finite element analysis coupled with a first-order reliability method. For the strength limit state of load-carrying capacity, multiple failure modes are considered, each involving the interaction of several random variables. Good agreement is achieved between the test results and the theoretical prediction of variability in load-carrying capacity. Finally, a procedure is given to obtain load-sharing adjustment factors applicable to repetitive member systems such as floors and flat roofs. Key words: reliability, limit state design, wood composites, I-joist, structural analysis.

Failure Assessment and Reliability Analysis of CFRP Composite Pressure Vessel

2007 ◽  
Vol 348-349 ◽  
pp. 225-228
Author(s):  
Jun Shen ◽  
M.L. Zhang ◽  
D.Y. Hou
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Pressure Vessel ◽  
Progressive Failure ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Fiber Direction ◽  
State Function ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Composite Pressure Vessel ◽  
Cfrp Composite

A new approach for progressive failure and reliability analysis of carbon fiber reinforced polymeric (CFRP) composite pressure vessel with many base random variables is developed in the paper. The elastic constants of CFRP lamina and geometric parameters of the vessel are selected as the base design variables. CFRP lamina specimen and pressure vessel were manufactured and tested in order to obtain statistics of design variables. The limit state function for progressive failure analysis was set up. Then the progressive failure and reliability analysis of the vessel were performed according to the stiffness degradation model based on Monte Carlo simulation procedure using MATLAB. The distributions of failure loads and the probability of failure of the vessel were obtained. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method is validated by good agreement between the simulation and experimental results. Further analysis indicates that the lamina tensile strength in the fiber direction and hoop layer thickness of the vessel have significant influence on the probability of failure of composite pressure vessel.

scholarly journals Reliability Analysis of Anchored Geotechnical Structures for the Design Limit States

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
Sohaib K Al-Mamoori ◽  
Laheab A. Al-Maliki ◽  
Khaled El-Tawel
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Tensile Failure ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Geotechnical Parameters ◽  
Retaining Structure ◽  
Geotechnical Structures ◽  
Bending Failure

Reliability has been considered of magnificent importance in engineering design specially in geotechnical engineering due to the unpredictable conditions of soil layers. It is essential to establish well- designed failure modes that could guarantee safety and durability of the proposed structure. This study aims to suggest a reliability analyses procedure for retaining walls by the mean of a reliability index β using the specifications of AASHTO Bridge Design 2002, Eurocode 7, and DIN EN 1993-5 norms. Two failure modes; Tensile failure of tendon (G1) and Failure by bending (G2) were studied and compared by using equation of the Design Limit State (DLS) and by taking some basic geotechnical parameters as Random Variables RV. The analyses demonstrated that the reliability index β and probability of failure Pf are the most important parameter in the reliability analysis. Also, the suitable height (H) for the retaining structure (for all angles ϴ) equals to 6 m and the most critical angle is ϴ= 45º to prevent the failure by tensile of tendon. While the bending failure reliability analysis shows that all heights of retaining structure are suitable. After comparing the two cases it was found that (G1) is more dangerous than (G2).

Application of Partial Safety Factors for Fitness-for-Service Assessment of Pressure Equipment With Local Metal Loss

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuyo Kaida ◽  
Shinsuke Sakai
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Partial Safety Factors

Reliability analysis considering data uncertainties can be used to make a rational decision as to whether to run or repair a pressure equipment that contains a flaw. Especially, partial safety factors (PSF) method is one of the most useful reliability analysis procedure and considered in a Level 3 assessment of a crack-like flaw in API 579-1/ASME FFS-1:2016. High Pressure Institute of Japan (HPI) formed a committee to develop a HPI FFS standard including PSF method. To apply the PSF method effectively, the safety factors for each dominant variable should be prepared before the assessment. In this paper, PSF for metal loss assessment of typical pressure vessels are derived based on first order reliability method (FORM). First, a limit state function and stochastic properties of random variables are defined. The properties of a typical pressure vessel are based on actual data of towers in petroleum and petrochemical plants. Second, probability of failure in several cases are studied by Hasofer-Lind method. Finally, PSF’s in each target probability of failure are proposed. HPI published a new technical report, HPIS Z 109 TR:2016, that provide metal loss assessment procedures based on FORM and the proposed PSF’s described in this paper.

scholarly journals FRICTION PILE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WITH RESPECT TO THE FOUNDATION SOIL BEARING CAPACITY

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Vladimir S. Utkin
Keyword(s):  
Bearing Capacity ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Foundation Soil ◽  
Soil Layers ◽  
Friction Pile ◽  
Pile Operation

Introduction. Friction pile reliability under the action of the central compressing force according to the Set of Rules 24.13330.2011 is calculated from the first group of the limit states — from the bearing capacity (using the pile material strength criteria and the foundation soil bearing capacity criterion) and from the second group of the limit states — from the pile load-deformation behaviour. Materials and methods. A method of calculating the friction pile reliability from the foundation soil bearing capacity is considered. Reliability appears as a quantitative measure of safety of a single pile operation. The foundation soil bearing capacity is accepted as a criterion for the pile operating capacity. The pile reliability analysis is based on the statistical information obtained during the preliminary pile testing with measuring the friction on the surface of the pile placed in the soil layers and the soil stress under the pile foot. The testing methods for obtaining the statistical information were well-known and used earlier to generate the lists of f-values and R-values in the Set of Rules 24.13330.2011. Each random parameter is measured at least three times. Results. The theory of analysis of the preliminary pile reliability in accordance with GOST 27751-2014 “Reliability of building structures and foundations” has been built on this statistical information. Reliability as the calculation result is represented by interval notation. The mathematical model of the limit state of the pile from the foundation soil bearing capacity has been borrowed from the Set of Rules. The connection (formula) between the length of the pile and the value of its reliability as a safety measure for its operation in the foundation soil has been established. Evaluation of the friction pile reliability corresponding to the characteristic value is carried out by calculation (trail-and-error method) from the mechanical properties of the soil and the load on the pile with the indication of the value of the length of the pile or the sum of the soil layers, each of the values in this case shall be not more than 2 m. The reliability analysis is described in the case studies set out in the article. Conclusions. Pile reliability analysis is based on the actual information about the pile operation in the foundation soil according to the current regulations of the Russian Federation, so the proposed method of the friction pile reliability analysis can be transferred into practice. It can also be used in the reliability calculation for other load-bearing elements, in the regulatory literature, and in the academic work of construction universities.

scholarly journals Structural Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Accounting for Collision or Grounding Damage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branka Bužančić Primorac ◽  
Joško Parunov ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Moment Capacity ◽  
Ship Hulls ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis

AbstractClassical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages. Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as random variables in the limit state equation. The probability density functions of these random variables are defined based on random damage parameters given by the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization, while the proposed reliability formulation is consistent with international recommendations and thus may be valuable in the development of rules for accidental limit states. The methodology is applied on an example of an Aframax oil tanker. The proposed approach captures in a rational way complex interaction of different pertinent variables influencing safety of damaged ship structure.

scholarly journals Copula-Based Slope Reliability Analysis Using the Failure Domain Defined by theg-Line

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Xu ◽  
Jianlin Li ◽  
Jiawei Gong ◽  
Huafeng Deng ◽  
Liangpeng Wan
Keyword(s):  
Shear Strength ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Function Approach ◽  
State Function ◽  
Shear Strength Parameters ◽  
Strength Parameters ◽  
Reliability Method

The estimation of the cross-correlation of shear strength parameters (i.e., cohesion and internal friction angle) and the subsequent determination of the probability of failure have long been challenges in slope reliability analysis. Here, a copula-based approach is proposed to calculate the probability of failure by integrating the copula-based joint probability density function (PDF) on the slope failure domain delimited with theg-line. Here, copulas are used to construct the joint PDF of shear strength parameters with specific marginal distributions and correlation structure. In the paper a failure (limit state) function approach is applied to investigate a system characterized by a homogeneous slope. The results show that the values obtained by using the failure function approach are similar to those calculated by means of conventional methods, such as the first-order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MC). In addition, an entropy weight (EW) copula is proposed to address the discrepancies of the results calculated by different copulas to avoid over- or underestimating the slope reliability.

scholarly journals Reliability Analysis of Vertical Well Casing: Comparison of API 5C3 and ISO 10400

2018 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 01012
Author(s):  
Amirah Husna Abdul Halim ◽  
Zahiraniza Mustaffa ◽  
Do Kyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Strength Parameter ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Strength Model ◽  
Burst Strength ◽  
Vertical Well ◽  
Strength Models

Well casings are designed against burst strength pressure. The same formula is used in determining the remaining burst strength pressure of casing that suffered from wear. API 5C3 and ISO 10400 burst strength models are widely used to determine the burst strength pressure and the remaining strength of casing. This paper focus on the comparison of both burst strength models for its reliability assessment for vertical well casing. The limit state design method was used and adapted into this study to calculate the probability of failure for both burst strength models. The reliability analysis for both models is conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that ISO 10400 burst strength model can predict the probability of failure for vertical well casing when subjected to higher operating pressure compared to API 5C3 burst strength model. ISO 10400 burst strength model can predict probability of failure for higher operating pressure due to adaption of ultimate tensile strength as the strength parameter in the equation whereas API 5C3 has adopt yield strength as the strength parameter in the equation.

scholarly journals FRICTION PILE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WITH RESPECT TO THE FOUNDATION SOIL BEARING CAPACITY

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Vladimir S. Utkin
Keyword(s):  
Bearing Capacity ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Foundation Soil ◽  
Soil Layers ◽  
Friction Pile ◽  
Pile Operation

Introduction. Friction pile reliability under the action of the central compressing force according to the Set of Rules 24.13330.2011 is calculated from the first group of the limit states — from the bearing capacity (using the pile material strength criteria and the foundation soil bearing capacity criterion) and from the second group of the limit states — from the pile load-deformation behaviour. Materials and methods. A method of calculating the friction pile reliability from the foundation soil bearing capacity is considered. Reliability appears as a quantitative measure of safety of a single pile operation. The foundation soil bearing capacity is accepted as a criterion for the pile operating capacity. The pile reliability analysis is based on the statistical information obtained during the preliminary pile testing with measuring the friction on the surface of the pile placed in the soil layers and the soil stress under the pile foot. The testing methods for obtaining the statistical information were well-known and used earlier to generate the lists of f-values and R-values in the Set of Rules 24.13330.2011. Each random parameter is measured at least three times. Results. The theory of analysis of the preliminary pile reliability in accordance with GOST 27751-2014 “Reliability of building structures and foundations” has been built on this statistical information. Reliability as the calculation result is represented by interval notation. The mathematical model of the limit state of the pile from the foundation soil bearing capacity has been borrowed from the Set of Rules. The connection (formula) between the length of the pile and the value of its reliability as a safety measure for its operation in the foundation soil has been established. Evaluation of the friction pile reliability corresponding to the characteristic value is carried out by calculation (trail-and-error method) from the mechanical properties of the soil and the load on the pile with the indication of the value of the length of the pile or the sum of the soil layers, each of the values in this case shall be not more than 2 m. The reliability analysis is described in the case studies set out in the article. Conclusions. Pile reliability analysis is based on the actual information about the pile operation in the foundation soil according to the current regulations of the Russian Federation, so the proposed method of the friction pile reliability analysis can be transferred into practice. It can also be used in the reliability calculation for other load-bearing elements, in the regulatory literature, and in the academic work of construction universities.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF STEEL BRACED REINFORCED CONCRETE FRAMES WITH SEMI-RIGID CONNECTIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (05) ◽  
pp. 1250037 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. B. BASAGA ◽  
M. E. KARTAL ◽  
A. BAYRAKTAR
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Compression Strength ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Braced Frames ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Strength Limit ◽  
Steel Strength ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Story Drift

This paper presents the reliability analysis of the frame structures with semi-rigid connections. For this purpose, the SEMIFEM finite element program that is capable of dealing with the semi-rigid connections is coded in FORTRAN. Then, this program is connected to the reliability algorithm. The direct coupling method, which is a combination of the reliability method and finite element method, is utilized to determine the reliability indexes and probabilities of failure for the structure. The first order reliability method (FORM) is the one favored in the present reliability analysis. Two sets of steel framed structures are analyzed; each of four and eight stories, consisting of a portal frame and three types of concentrically braced frames. Concrete compression strength limit state in reinforced concrete (RC) columns, steel strength limit state in steel braces and inter-story drift limit state are considered in reliability evaluation. According to the limit states, X braced frames are determined as the safest structures, while the portal frames are regarded as the most unsafe structures. As the connection percentage increases, the safety of the structure increases in terms of inter-story drift and steel strength limit states, but decreases for concrete compression strength limit states.

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