scholarly journals Predictive Capability Maturity Quantification Using Bayesian Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linyu Lin ◽  
Nam Dinh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Predictive Capability ◽  
Capability Maturity

Abstract In nuclear engineering, modeling and simulations (M&Ss) are widely applied to support risk-informed safety analysis. Since nuclear safety analysis has important implications, a convincing validation process is needed to assess simulation adequacy, i.e., the degree to which M&S tools can adequately represent the system quantities of interest. However, due to data gaps, validation becomes a decision-making process under uncertainties. Expert knowledge and judgments are required to collect, choose, characterize, and integrate evidence toward the final adequacy decision. However, in validation frameworks, CSAU: code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty (NUREG/CR-5249) and EMDAP: evaluation model development and assessment process regulatory guide (RG 1.203), such a decision-making process is largely implicit and obscure. When scenarios are complex, knowledge biases and unreliable judgments can be overlooked, which could increase uncertainty in the simulation adequacy result and the corresponding risks. Therefore, a framework is required to formalize the decision-making process for simulation adequacy in a practical, transparent, and consistent manner. This paper suggests a framework—“Predictive capability maturity quantification using Bayesian network (PCMQBN)”—as a quantified framework for assessing simulation adequacy based on information collected from validation activities. A case study is prepared for evaluating the adequacy of a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic simulation in predicting the hydrodynamic forces onto static structures during an external flooding scenario. Comparing to the qualitative and implicit adequacy assessment, PCMQBN is able to improve confidence in the simulation adequacy result and to reduce expected loss in the risk-informed safety analysis.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the current status of EIA system in Pakistan focusing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Deedar Ahmed ◽  
Abdullah Khan ◽  
Zulfiqar Ali ◽  
Daulat Khan ◽  
Ihsan Ullah Afridi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
National Level ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Environmental Legislation ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Pakistan, like many other developing countries has adopted the integration of environmental concerns in its social and economic planning. Pakistan has developed some environmental legislation and policies at the national level for the protection and conservation of environment. This paper evaluates the current status of the environmental assessment system in Pakistan and especially in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province by using the Christopher Wood Evaluation Model. The EIA system in Pakistan has many strong features like the legal basis for assessment process, strong apprehension and willingness for screening and scoping, stakeholder’s involvement and participation, mitigation of impacts, and cost & benefits of EIA system. The limitations found in the assessment process of Pakistan includes Preparation of EIA report and its review, monitoring and auditing, strategic environmental assessment, while consideration of alternatives and decision making mechanisms are completely ignored. Besides these, the study revealed the practice of ineffective remedial measures, non-professional, inexperience and unregistered consultants involved in the environmental assessment and sporadically the politically oriented decision making process. This evaluation led to a series of suggestions regarding the improvement of EIA system in Pakistan and especially KP Province with a view to develop its quality and effectiveness.

A Thermal Hydraulic Phenomenon Based Review on the Validation Matrix of Several Reactor Safety Analysis Systems Codes

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liao ◽  
Scott E. Fortune
Keyword(s):  
Stokes Equations ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Reactor Safety ◽  
Loss Of Coolant Accident ◽  
Assessment Matrix

The systems computer code is a key part of the evaluation model for safety analysis of nuclear reactors. The systems code utilizes a set of governing equation that is simplified from the fundamental Navier-Stokes equations and closure models to describe the transport of mass, momentum, and energy of single phase or multiphase fluid throughout the reactor coolant systems. Following the Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process, an assessment matrix is established where Separate Effects Tests and Integral Effects Tests are selected based on phenomena identification and ranking table. The purpose of the assessment matrix is to validate the systems code against the important phenomena for the safety analysis. The code biases and uncertainties are established and the effect of scale could then be determined. The assessment matrices of major systems codes, RELAP5/MOD3, TRACE Ver.5.0 and WCOBRA/TRAC-TF2, for the reactor safety analysis are reviewed and compared in this study for the Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) safety analysis perspectives. The scenarios are divided into small break LOCA and large break LOCA. The phenomena bases of the separate effects tests in those assessment matrices are discussed following its PIRT. The comparison demonstrates the capability of each systems code.

scholarly journals Multicriteria Evaluation of Urban Regeneration Processes: An Application of PROMETHEE Method in Northern Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Bottero ◽  
Chiara D’Alpaos ◽  
Alessandra Oppio
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Urban Regeneration ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Promethee Method ◽  
Regeneration Processes

The paper illustrates the development of an evaluation model for supporting the decision-making process related to an urban regeneration intervention. In particular, the study proposes an original multi-methodological approach, which combines SWOT Analysis, Stakeholders Analysis and PROMETHEE method for the evaluation of alternative renewal strategies of an urban area in Northern Italy. The article also describes the work carried out within an experts’ panel that has been organized for validating the structuring of the decision problem and for evaluating the criteria of the model.

Statistical Methodology for a Quantified Validation of Sodium Fast Reactor Simulation Tools

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Marie ◽  
A. Marrel ◽  
K. Herbreteau
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Statistical Methodology ◽  
Simulation Tools ◽  
Sodium Fast Reactor ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Uncertain Input ◽  
Dependence Measures

Abstract This paper presents a statistical methodology for a quantified validation of the OCARINa simulation tool, which models the unprotected transient overpower (UTOP) accidents. This validation on CABRI experiments is based on a best-estimate plus uncertainties (BEPU) approach. To achieve this, a general methodology based on recent statistical techniques is developed. In particular, a method for the quantification of multivariate data is applied for the visualization of simulator outputs and their comparison with experiments. Still for validation purposes, a probabilistic indicator is proposed to quantify the degree of agreement between the simulator OCARINa and the experiments, taking into account both experimental uncertainties and those on OCARINa inputs. Going beyond a qualitative validation, this work is of great interest for the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification or evaluation model development and assessment process approaches, which leads to the qualification of scientific calculation tools. Finally, for an in-depth analysis of the influence of uncertain parameters, a sensitivity analysis based on recent dependence measures is also performed. The usefulness of the statistical methodology is demonstrated on CABRI-E7 and CABRI-E12 tests. For each case, the BEPU propagation study is carried out performing 1000 Monte Carlo simulations with the OCARINa tool, with nine uncertain input parameters. The validation indicators provide a quantitative conclusion on the validation of the OCARINa tool on both transients and highlight future efforts to strengthen the demonstration of validation of safety tools. The sensitivity analysis improves the understanding of the OCARINa tool and the underlying UTOP scenario.

Investigating patient recruitment to radiotherapy clinical trials

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 232-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Thompson ◽  
Melanie Clarkson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Dose Fractionation ◽  
Trial Participation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Patient Interviews ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Lack Of Commitment

AbstractBackgroundRadiotherapy randomised controlled trials provide evidence to support the development of new techniques and dose/fractionation regimens. Some radiotherapy trials have previously had to close early or revise targets due to low recruitment rates. Many authors have recommended research into recruitment strategies for many areas of medicine, however little work has been carried out in the specific field of radiotherapy.MethodUsing a survey of research radiographers followed by radiotherapy patient interviews, this project provides perspectives on motives for patient participation in radiotherapy clinical trials, and how to best support people through this decision-making process.FindingsThe main factors influencing participation identified by the radiographers were altruism, treatment fatigue and concerns about the trial arms, lack of resources and lack of commitment from some medical colleagues. For patients the main factors were mainly emotional; altruism, and fears for efficacy of different trial arms featured, with requests for timely communication of trial information.ConclusionWe recommend that strategies should be offered proactively to support patients through the decision-making process when considering trial participation. Research radiographers are ideally qualified to offer support and expert knowledge to these patients.

Assessment of uncertainty in Great Barrier Reef catchment models

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Herr ◽  
P.M. Kuhnert
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Great Barrier Reef ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Water Quality Management ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Research Activities

This paper addresses uncertainty in socio-economic and sediment-nutrient models that are being developed for the assessment of change in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) area. The catchments draining into the GBR lagoon are sources of pollutants. The Reef Water Quality Management Plan of the Queensland Government identified sediments and nutrients transported to the GBR lagoon as the major long-term threats to the reef and inshore ecosystems and the wellbeing of the human communities. The plan clearly indicates that changes in land management are required by 2013 to reduce pollutant inputs and, at the same time, maintain or enhance the benefits from using the inland waters. Science that provides decision tools for natural resource management and improves socio-economic and biophysical understanding is required to enable managers to make better decisions. A major research activity (the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship) aims to address social, economic and biophysical outcomes of land management change in the GBR. It contains research activities that provide information for integrated model development. Currently, however, these models lack the ability to estimate the uncertainty associated with prediction. This project aims to provide statistical methods for assessing uncertainty in models of sediment transportation to the GBR. Furthermore, it provides a link between the models and the decision-making process that allows assessment of uncertainty, a step pertinent to the risk analysis of policy options. This paper describes current and ongoing approaches for assessing uncertainty using a sediment modelling example and provides a way forward for the integration of applied socio-economic and biophysical models used in the decision-making process.

scholarly journals Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Penentuan Merek Smartphone Terbaik Dalam Mendukung Belajar Online Mahasiswa Era Covid-19 Menggunakan Metode PSI (Preference Selection Index)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 762
Author(s):  
Wan Mariatul Kifti ◽  
Irene Hasian
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Learning ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Selection Index ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
Purchase Criteria ◽  
Psi Method ◽  
Method Preference

The era of the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in people having to carry out activities by keeping their distance from one another in order to achieve the termination of the spread of the Covid-19 virus, this activity resulted in the government issuing a decree, especially to the education office to conduct online learning because schools and universities is one of the places that has great potential for easy transmission, online learning makes all students obliged to have a smartphone or android so that it makes it easier for students to access online learning, it is necessary to determine the best smartphone brand with the most purchase criteria, price, capacity owned by smartphone and year. output which will later become a literature review of students and parents of students to be more selective in choosing according to the wishes and needs of each user with the help of a decision support system and the application of the PSI method (Preference Selection Index). rence selection index), and the results obtained with the highest score on the xiaomi smartphone with the highest score of 0,327332, the assessment process is fairer and the decision-making process is fast.

scholarly journals Multi-criteria Decision Analysis for Health Technology Assessment of Intensive Care Ventilators for Pediatric Patients.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Andellini ◽  
Francesco Faggiano ◽  
Sergio Giuseppe Picardo ◽  
Giuseppina Testa ◽  
Daniela Perrotta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Support Tool

Abstract BackgroundThe technological complexity and heterogeneity of intensive care ventilator models currently available on the market together with the heterogeneity in pediatric patients (0 to 18 years old), make the choice of the best machine for pediatric healthcare setting crucial.This paper is aimed at addressing all the critical aspects linked to the implementation of intensive care ventilators in a pediatric setting, highlighting the most relevant technical features and describing the methodology to conduct health technology assessment (HTA) for supporting the decision-making process.Four ventilators models were included in the assessment process. A decision-making support tool (DoHTA method) based on Analytic Hierarchy Process, was applied. 28 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were identified, defining the safety, clinical effectiveness, organizational, technical, and economic aspects. The Performance scores of each ventilator have been measured with respect to KPIs integrated with the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, leading to a final rank of the four possible technological solutions. ResultsThe final technologies’ performance scores reflected a deliver valued, contextualized, and shared outputs, detecting the most performant technological solution for the specific hospital context. HTA results had informed and supported the pediatric hospital decision-making process. ConclusionsThis study, identifying and discussing the pros and cons of innovative features of ventilators and all the evaluation criteria and aspects to be taken into account during the evaluation process, can be considered as a valuable proof of evidence as well as a reliable and transferable method for conducting a decision making process in a hospital context.

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