On the inference of complex phylogenetic networks by Markov Chain Monte-Carlo

For various species, high quality sequences and complete genomes are nowadays available for many individuals. This makes data analysis challenging, as methods need not only to be accurate, but also time efficient given the tremendous amount of data to process. In this article, we introduce an efficient method to infer the evolutionary history of individuals under the multispecies coalescent model in networks (MSNC). Phylogenetic networks are an extension of phylogenetic trees that can contain reticulate nodes, which allow to model complex biological events such as horizontal gene transfer, hybridization and introgression. We present a novel way to compute the likelihood of biallelic markers sampled along genomes whose evolution involved such events. This likelihood computation is at the heart of a Bayesian network inference method called SnappNet, as it extends the Snapp method inferring evolutionary trees under the multispecies coalescent model, to networks. SnappNet is available as a package of the well-known beast 2 software. Recently, the MCMC_BiMarkers method, implemented in PhyloNet, also extended Snapp to networks. Both methods take biallelic markers as input, rely on the same model of evolution and sample networks in a Bayesian framework, though using different methods for computing priors. However, SnappNet relies on algorithms that are exponentially more time-efficient on non-trivial networks. Using simulations, we compare performances of SnappNet and MCMC_BiMarkers. We show that both methods enjoy similar abilities to recover simple networks, but SnappNet is more accurate than MCMC_BiMarkers on more complex network scenarios. Also, on complex networks, SnappNet is found to be extremely faster than MCMC_BiMarkers in terms of time required for the likelihood computation. We finally illustrate SnappNet performances on a rice data set. SnappNet infers a scenario that is consistent with previous results and provides additional understanding of rice evolution.

Inference and reasoning in a Bayesian knowledge-intensive CBR system

This paper presents the inference and reasoning methods in a Bayesian supported knowledge-intensive case-based reasoning (CBR) system called BNCreek. The inference and reasoning process in this system is a combination of three methods. The semantic network inference methods and the CBR method are employed to handle the difficulties of inferencing and reasoning in uncertain domains. The Bayesian network inference methods are employed to make the process more accurate. An experiment from oil well drilling as a complex and uncertain application domain is conducted. The system is evaluated against expert estimations and compared with seven other corresponding systems. The normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG) as a rank-based metric, the weighted error (WE), and root-square error (RSE) as the statistical metrics are employed to evaluate different aspects of the system capabilities. The results show the efficiency of the developed inference and reasoning methods.

Benthic ecosystem cascade effects in Antarctica using Bayesian network inference

Antarctic sea-floor communities are unique, and more closely resemble those of the Palaeozoic than equivalent contemporary habitats. However, comparatively little is known about the processes that structure these communities or how they might respond to anthropogenic change. In order to investigate likely consequences of a decline or removal of key taxa on community dynamics we use Bayesian network inference to reconstruct ecological networks and infer changes of taxon removal. Here we show that sponges have the greatest influence on the dynamics of the Antarctic benthos. When we removed sponges from the network, the abundances of all major taxa reduced by a mean of 42%, significantly more than changes of substrate. To our knowledge, this study is the first to demonstrate the cascade effects of removing key ecosystem structuring organisms from statistical analyses of Antarctica data and demonstrates the importance of considering the community dynamics when planning ecosystem management.

Improved High Dimensional Discrete Bayesian Network Inference using Triplet Region Construction

Performing efficient inference on high dimensional discrete Bayesian Networks (BNs) is challenging. When using exact inference methods the space complexity can grow exponentially with the tree-width, thus making computation intractable. This paper presents a general purpose approximate inference algorithm, based on a new region belief approximation method, called Triplet Region Construction (TRC). TRC reduces the cluster space complexity for factorized models from worst-case exponential to polynomial by performing graph factorization and producing clusters of limited size. Unlike previous generations of region-based algorithms, TRC is guaranteed to converge and effectively addresses the region choice problem that bedevils other region-based algorithms used for BN inference. Our experiments demonstrate that it also achieves significantly more accurate results than competing algorithms.

Data-driven learning how oncogenic gene expression locally alters heterocellular networks

Discovering and developing pharmaceutical drugs increasingly relies on mechanistic mathematical modeling and simulation. In immuno-oncology, models that capture causal relations among genetic drivers of oncogenesis, functional plasticity, and host immunity provide an important complement to wet experiments, given the cellular complexity and dynamics within the tumor microenvironment. Unfortunately, formulating such mechanistic cell-level models currently relies on hand curation by experts, which can bias how data is interpreted or the priority of drug targets. In modeling molecular-level networks, rules and algorithms have been developed to limit a priori biases in formulating mechanistic models. To realize an equivalent approach for cell-level networks, we combined digital cytometry with Bayesian network inference to generate causal models that link an increase in gene expression associated with oncogenesis with alterations in stromal and immune cell subsets directly from bulk transcriptomic datasets. To illustrate, we predicted how an increase in expression of Cell Communication Network factor 4 (CCN4/WISP1) altered the tumor microenvironment using data from patients diagnosed with breast cancer and melanoma. Network predictions were then tested using two immunocompetent mouse models for melanoma. In contrast to hand-curated approaches, we posit that combining digital cytometry with Bayesian network inference provides a less biased approach for elaborating mechanistic cell-level models directly from data.