scholarly journals Desktop Failure Analysis on a Microcomputer Using Weibull, Lognormal and Renewal Data

Author(s):  
J. L. Byers

Gas turbine components and parts are widely known to have many failure modes for which the failures correlate in either the Weibull or Lognormal probability distributions. This paper describes a typical case which is handled by the new computer programs now being used by the U. S. Navy. These programs have brought the capability to make such analyses directly to the designer or analysts desk instead of having to be sent off to a central computer to wait in line. The programs are interactive with the user and extremely user friendly. Uses are expanding to cover almost every area in the life cycle of gas turbines where it would be beneficial to forecast future failures. This makes the programs useful to managers, logisticians, life cycle cost analysts, and a host of others. Wide applicability of the methods assures usage outside of the gas turbine field.

1990 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-236
Author(s):  
J. L. Byers

Gas turbine components and parts are widely known to have many failure modes for which the failures correlate in either the Weibull or Lognormal probability distributions. This paper describes a typical case, which is handled by the new computer programs now being used by the U. S. Navy. These programs have brought the capability to make such analyses directly to the designer or analyst’s desk instead of having to be sent off to a central computer to wait in line. The programs are interactive with the user and extremely user friendly. Uses are expanding to cover almost every area in the life cycle of gas turbines where it would be beneficial to forecast future failures. This makes the programs useful to managers, logisticians, life cycle cost analysts, and a host of others. Wide applicability of the methods assures usage outside of the gas turbine field.


Author(s):  
Vladimir Navrotsky ◽  
Mats Blomstedt ◽  
Niklas Lundin ◽  
Claes Uebel

Current power generation and oil & gas markets are dynamic with continuously growing requirements on gas turbines for high reliability and availability and low emissions and life cycle cost. In order to meet these growing requirements on the gas turbines, the OEM should sustain continued product improvement and employment of innovative solutions and technologies in the area of design, operation and maintenance. This paper describes the successful development and operation experiences of SGT-600 Siemens’ medium size gas turbine and in particular the latest achievements in maintenance and life cycle improvements. High reliability and availability of SGT-600 gas turbine were enabled by further improvements and modifications of the combustor, compressor turbine blade 1 and vane 1, power turbine diffuser and control system. The developed modifications enable operators to utilize the opportunity: • to extend the life cycle of the engine beyond 120,000 EOH (Equivalent Operating Hours), up to 180,000 EOH, depending on the previous operation profile and history of the installation; • to extend the maintenance intervals from 20,000 EOH to 30,000 EOH and that to increase the availability of the engine by up to 1%; • to reduce the emission level to the latest SGT-600 standards.


1988 ◽  
Vol 110 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-278
Author(s):  
J. C. Ness ◽  
C. B. Franks ◽  
R. L. Sadala

During the phases of a U.S. Navy acquisition program for any new system, such as a gas turbine system, various analyses are conducted to evaluate the economic and technical benefits that can be gained by the new system. It is important that the economic analyses provide a good estimation of the nonrecurring and recurring costs. For the development of a new gas turbine system, a test program to prove the system’s technical and operational capability will have to be conducted and a support system will have to be developed to operate and maintain it during its life cycle. The costs of the engine development, the test program, and the support system development are considered nonrecurring or investment costs. The operation and maintenance costs over the life of the system are the recurring costs. This paper presents the life cycle cost scenario that should be used to evaluate the economics of a U.S. Navy marine gas turbine and the considerations that should be included in a Return on Investment analysis of the engine. The major cost categories discussed include engineering, logistics support, program management, and deployment support. Also, the unique considerations that would apply to marine gas turbines for Naval use are discussed along with how these considerations affect the economics of a gas turbine acquisition program. In addition, the paper identifies the funding responsibility of each cost item and provides discussion on ways to reduce the investment cost.


Author(s):  
Melissa Wilcox ◽  
Klaus Brun

Gas turbine inlet filtration systems play an important role in the operation and life of gas turbines. There are many factors that must be considered when selecting and installing a new filtration system or upgrading an existing system. The filter engineer must consider the efficiency of the filtration system, particles sizes to be filtered, the maintenance necessary over the life of the filtration system, acceptable pressure losses across the filtration system, required availability and reliability of the gas turbine, and how the filtration system affects this, washing schemes for the turbine, and the initial cost of any new filtration systems or upgrades. A life cycle cost analysis provides a fairly straightforward method to analyze the lifetime costs of inlet filtration systems, and it provides a method to directly compare different filter system options. This paper reviews the components of a gas turbine inlet filtration system life cycle cost analysis and discusses how each factor can be quantified as a lifetime cost. In addition, an example analysis, which is used to select a filtration system for a new gas turbine installation, is presented.


Author(s):  
Igor S. Ondryas

In the increasingly competitive global marketplace the users of industrial products face the challenge of predicting accurate life-cycle costs of their equipment and machinery. The deregulation of many industries resulted in inability of operating companies to pass over to the customer the increased costs of their products, which may have been caused by inaccurate predictions of the equipment operating costs. This evolution in the 1980’s have emphasized the need for accurate predictions of the equipment operating costs and have meant the difference between profit and loss. This paper presents the concept of equipment Durability to be used in the process of evaluation the equipment life cycle cost and subsequent equipment selection. It is also the first part or primer to the paper which describes the Durability Surveillance Program on the Advanced Gas Turbines sponsored by EPRI titled “Durability Surveillance Program on the Advanced Gas Turbine GE Frame 7 F” (1).


Author(s):  
Glenn McAndrews

Electric starter development programs have been the subject of ASME technical papers for over two decades. Offering significant advantages over hydraulic or pneumatic starters, electric starters are now poised to be the preferred choice amongst gas turbine customers. That they are not now the dominant starter in the field after decades of investment and experimentation is attributable to many factors. As with any new technology, progress is often unsteady, depending on budgets, market conditions, customer buy-in, etc. Additionally, technological advances in the parent technologies, in this case electric motors, can abruptly and rapidly change, further disturbing the best laid introduction plans. It is therefore not too surprising that only recently, is the industry beginning to see the deployment of electric starters on production gas turbines. The earliest adoption occurred on smaller gas turbine units, generally less than 10 MW in power. More recently, gas turbines greater than 10 MWs are being sold with electric starters. The authors expect that regardless of their size or fuel supply, most all future gas turbine users will opt for electric starters. This may even include the “larger” frame machines with power greater than 100 MW. Starting with some past history, this paper will not only summarize past development efforts, it will attempt to examine the current deployment of electric starters throughout the marine and industrial gas turbine landscapes. The large-scale acceptance of electric start systems for both new production and retrofit will depend on the favorable cost/benefit assessment when weighing both first cost and life cycle cost. The current and intense activity in electric vehicle applications is giving rise to even more power dense motors. The paper will look at some of these exciting applications, the installed products, and the technologies behind the products. To what extent these new products may serve the needs of the gas turbine community will be the central question this paper attempts to answer.


Author(s):  
Marcin Bielecki ◽  
Salvatore Costagliola ◽  
Piotr Gebalski

The paper deliberates vibration limits for non-rotating parts in application to industrial gas turbines. As a rule such limits follow ISO 10816-4 or API616, although in field operation it is not well known relationship between these limits and failure modes. In many situations, the reliability function is not well-defined, and more comprehensive methods of determining the harmful effects of support vibrations are desirable. In the first part, the undertaken approach and the results are illustrated based on the field and theoretical experience of the authors about the failure modes related to alarm level of vibrations. Here several failure modes and diagnostics observations are illustrated with the examples of real-life data. In the second part, a statistical approach based on correlation of support vs. shaft vibrations (velocity / displacement) is demonstrated in order to assess the risk of the bearing rub. The test data for few gas turbine models produced by General Electric Oil & Gas are statistically evaluated and allow to draw an experimentally based transfer function between vibrations recorded by non-contact and seismic probes. Then the vibration limit with objectives like bearing rub is scrutinized with aid of probabilistic tools. In the third part, the attention is given to a few examples of the support vibrations — among other gas turbine with rotors supported on flexible pedestals and baseplate. Here there is determined a transfer coefficient between baseplate and bearing vibrations for specific foundation configurations. Based on the test data screening as well as analysis and case studies thereof, the conclusions about more specific vibration limits in relation to the failure modes are drawn.


Author(s):  
Sepehr Sanaye ◽  
Salahadin Hosseini

A novel procedure for finding the optimum values of design parameters of industrial twin-shaft gas turbines at various ambient temperatures is presented here. This paper focuses on being off design due to various ambient temperatures. The gas turbine modeling is performed by applying compressor and turbine characteristic maps and using thermodynamic matching method. The gas turbine power output is selected as an objective function in optimization procedure with genetic algorithm. Design parameters are compressor inlet guide vane angle, turbine exit temperature, and power turbine inlet nozzle guide vane angle. The novel constrains in optimization are compressor surge margin and turbine blade life cycle. A trained neural network is used for life cycle estimation of high pressure (gas generator) turbine blades. Results for optimum values for nozzle guide vane/inlet guide vane (23°/27°–27°/6°) in ambient temperature range of 25–45 ℃ provided higher net power output (3–4.3%) and more secured compressor surge margin in comparison with that for gas turbines control by turbine exit temperature. Gas turbines thermal efficiency also increased from 0.09 to 0.34% (while the gas generator turbine first rotor blade creep life cycle was kept almost constant about 40,000 h). Meanwhile, the averaged values for turbine exit temperature/turbine inlet temperature changed from 831.2/1475 to 823/1471°K, respectively, which shows about 1% decrease in turbine exit temperature and 0.3% decrease in turbine inlet temperature.


2018 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. 01020
Author(s):  
Thamir K. Ibrahim ◽  
Mohammed K. Mohammed ◽  
Omar I. Awad ◽  
Rizalman Mamat ◽  
M. Kh Abdolbaqi

A basic goal of operation management is to successfully complete the life cycle of power systems, with optimum output against minimal input. This document intends calculating both, the performance and the life cycle cost of a gas turbine fitted with an inlet air cooling mechanism. Correspondingly, both a thermodynamic and an economic model are drawn up, to present options towards computing the cooling loads and the life cycle costs. The primary observations indicate that around 120MWh of power is derived from gas turbine power plants incorporating the cooling mechanism, compared to 96.6 MWh for units without the mechanism, while the life cycle cost is lower for units incorporating the cooling process. This indicates benefits in having the mechanism incorporated in the architecture of a gas turbine.


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