Analysis of PSA Conservative Assumptions’ Impact on Risk Profile for Armenian NPP Unit 2

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahen Poghosyan ◽  
Armen Amirjanyan ◽  
Surik Bznuni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Risk Assessment ◽  
Comparative Risk ◽  
Full Power ◽  
Power Operation ◽  
The Impact

PSA is a powerful tool for detailed risk assessment and risk-informed decision making. The main deliverables from PSA models is comparative risk assessment of different risk contributors including systems, components, IEs, etc. Risk-informed decision making process is based on obtained risk profile. In comparison with deterministic approach conservatism included in PSA models could lead to deformation of risk profile which will bring to inappropriate decision making based on PSA results. This paper presents analysis done for Armenian NPP PSA study in order to assess the impact of conservative assumptions on final risk profile coming from potential internal initiating events at full power operation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Suboptimal Diet on Type 2 Diabetes at Global, Regional, National, and Sub-National Levels: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 877-877
Author(s):  
Meghan O'Hearn ◽  
Gitanjali Singh ◽  
Frederick Cudhea ◽  
Victoria Miller ◽  
Jianyi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Whole Grains ◽  
Dietary Factors ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Comparative Risk Assessment ◽  
Comparative Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives To prioritize dietary factors for reducing the growing burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) worldwide, we estimated the impact of suboptimal diet on T2D incidence at global, regional, national, and subnational levels between 1990 and 2015. Methods A comparative risk assessment framework estimated T2D incidence attributable to suboptimal diet in strata jointly stratified by year, nation, age, and sex, across 185 countries. We estimated direct (dietary composition) etiologic effects of 8 factors including nuts/seeds, whole grains, yogurt, processed meats, unprocessed red meats, glycemic load (estimated from refined grains), sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and potatoes. Population demographics were from the United Nations; stratum-specific mean dietary intakes and distributions from Global Dietary Database (GDD), diet-T2D etiologic effects from meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies; and T2D incidence from the Global Burden of Disease study. These inputs and their uncertainties were used to calculate the stratum-specific population attributable fraction (PAF) and then absolute attributable cases, with joint effects estimated using multiplicative PAFs. Results In 2015, suboptimal intakes of these 8 factors were jointly estimated to cause 10.9 million T2D cases (95% UI 7.2–15.3), representing 59.6% of all cases (39.3–83.3%) among adults age 25 + y globally. Low intake of whole grains (3.6 million cases (3.4–3.8)) followed by high intake of SSBs (2.7 million cases (2.5–2.9)) had the largest estimated attributable burdens. Across 7 world regions, highest diet-attributable burdens of T2D were in High Income Countries (2516 cases per million (2115, 2870)) and Former Soviet Union (2341 cases per million (1465, 2970)); and lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa (797 cases per million (333, 1435)). The proportion of T2D attributable to suboptimal diet was generally greater in males vs. females and in younger vs. older age groups. Results for specific countries, trends over time, and further sensitivity analyses will be presented. Conclusions These novel findings provide the most updated estimates of diet-attributable T2D globally, helping to inform priorities for targeted healthcare system, policy, industry and public health interventions to reduce T2D. Funding Sources Gates Foundation.

A Risk-Informed Decision Making Methodology for Evaluating Failure Impact of Early System Designs

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tolga Kurtoglu ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Development ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
System Level ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Guide System ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we introduce a new risk-informed decision-making methodology for use during early design of complex systems. The proposed approach is based on the notion that a failure happens when a functional element in the system does not perform its intended task. Accordingly, risk is defined depending on the role of functionality in accomplishing designed tasks. A simulation-based failure analysis tool is used to analyze functional failures and their impact on overall system functionality. The analysis results are then integrated into a decision-making framework that relates the impact of functional failures and their propagation to decision making in order to guide system level design decisions. With the help of the proposed methodology, a multitude of failure scenarios can be quickly analyzed to determine the effects of decisions on overall system risk. Using this decision-making approach, design teams can systematically explore risks and vulnerabilities during early, functional stage of system development prior to the selection of specific components. Application of the presented method to a reservoir system design demonstrates these capabilities.

scholarly journals Global Methodology for Electrical Utilities Maintenance Assessment Based on Risk-Informed Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9091
Author(s):  
Mohamed Gaha ◽  
Bilal Chabane ◽  
Dragan Komljenovic ◽  
Alain Côté ◽  
Claude Hébert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Electrical Power ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Power Utilities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electrical Utilities

Modern electrical power utilities must deal with the replacement of large portions of their assets as they reach the end of their useful life. Their assets may also become obsolete due to technological changes or due to reaching their capacity limits. Major upgrades are also often necessary due to the need to grow capacity or because of the transition to more efficient and carbon-free power alternatives. Consequently, electrical power utilities are exposed to significant risks and uncertainties that have mostly external origins. In this context, an effective framework should be developed and implemented to maximize value from assets, ensure sustainable operations and deliver adequate customer service. Recent developments show that combining the concepts of asset management and resilience offers strong potential for such a framework—not only for electrical utilities, but for industry, too. Given that the quality and continuity of service are critical factors, the concept of Value of Lost Load (VoLL) is an important indicator for assessing the value of undelivered electrical energy due to planned or unplanned outages. This paper presents a novel approach for integrating the power grid reliability simulator into a holistic framework for asset management and electrical power utility resilience. The proposed approach provides a sound foundation for Risk-Informed Decision Making in asset management. Among other things, it considers asset performance as well as the impact of both current grid topology and customer profiles on grid reliability and VoLL. A case study on a major North American electrical power utility demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology in assessing maintenance strategy.

Improved Preoperative Risk-Assessment Tools Are Needed to Guide Informed Decision-Making Before Esophagectomy

2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine D. Gray ◽  
Tamar B. Nobel ◽  
Meier Hsu ◽  
Kay See Tan ◽  
Neel Chudgar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Preoperative Risk ◽  
Preoperative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

The Application of Risk-Informed Decision-Making Approach in Optimization of Allowed Outage Time for Safety System in Nuclear Power Plant

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Licun Wu ◽  
Chao Ma ◽  
Wei Deng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Pressure ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Safety System ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Deterministic Analysis ◽  
The Impact

To facilitate online maintenance for High Pressure Safety Injection (HPSI) system in nuclear power plant, the optimization measure for Allowed Outage Time (AOT) is proposed in this paper, and risk-Informed decision-making approach is used to demonstrate its feasibility. According to the analysis results, the extension of AOT meets the requirements of relative guides and deterministic analysis, and the impact on risk of plant is acceptable. Based on the extension of AOT, it is feasible to carry out online maintenance for safety system and corresponding support systems, which can effectively reduce workload during shutdown.

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