Developing Beliefs About the Cost of Systems in a Conceptual Design Phase

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shun Takai
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Design ◽  
System Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Final System ◽  
New System

In a conceptual design phase, engineers need to estimate, as accurately as possible, the cost of system developed from each concept (cost of concept). If engineers overestimate cost, engineers may be forced to unnecessarily cancel system development. On the other hand, if engineers underestimate cost, the final system may not be as profitable as initially expected. When engineers make a critical decision to select a concept, the dilemma is that there is typically no or limited information to accurately estimate cost of concept. This paper proposes a belief-based approach for estimating a cost of system in a conceptual design phase. In the proposed approach, engineers benchmark existing systems in the market that are similar to the new system. For these benchmarked systems, engineers estimate costs by subtracting profit margins from observed prices. Engineers develop a distribution of cost for the new system from these estimated costs.

The Part Count Tool (PACT) for Concept Selection

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarang Parashar ◽  
Katie Grantham Lough ◽  
Robert B. Stone
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Manufacturing Cost ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Concept Generation ◽  
Product Concept ◽  
Design Concepts ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Component Type ◽  
The Cost

This paper presents a part count tool that automates the consideration of manufacturing cost during the conceptual design phase by predicting part count for a particular product concept. With an approximate number of parts per product in the conceptual design phase, the designer can estimate the cost associated with the product. On the basis of the cost, the designer can make changes according to budget requirements. The part count tool will also aid in ranking the design concepts by number of components for a product. This tool utilizes existing automated concept generation algorithms to generate the design concepts. It extracts the available data from the Missouri S&T Design Repository to compute an average number of parts per component type in the repository and then calculates an average part count for new concepts. This data can subsequently be used by designers to estimate product cost. The part count tool also uses an algorithm to determine how to connect two non compatible components through the addition of mutually compatible components. While emphasis is placed on the average parts per product in evaluating designs, the overall functional requirement of the product is also considered.

Selecting System Concept by Minimizing Cost of Part Requirement Tolerances

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shun Takai
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Know How ◽  
System Concept ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Small Set ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Final System ◽  
Control Part

At the end of a conceptual design phase, engineers choose a single (or a small set of) system concept from a large number of concept variants. In most cases, there is not enough design information to quantitatively evaluate how a final system developed from each concept would perform and cost. Thus engineers need to first perceptually evaluate and select a concept, and then design a system. On the other hand, if engineers know analytical relationships between system and part requirements, they can specify target values of part requirements such that a system achieves its target requirements. Furthermore, if engineers know how much it will cost to control part requirements within tolerances, they can minimize the cost of a system by optimizing tolerances of part requirements. This paper proposes and illustrates an approach to select a system concept when engineers know the relationship between system and part requirements, and how much it will cost to control part requirements within tolerances. Engineers choose a concept that minimizes cost.

An Approach Toward Estimating Cost of a New System in the Conceptual Design Stage Using Knowledge-Base

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shun Takai
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Cost Data ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Historical Cost ◽  
Conceptual Design Stage ◽  
System Concept ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Final System ◽  
New System

To estimate profitability of a new system in the conceptual design stage, engineers need to estimate the cost of concept (the cost of the final system developed from each system concept). If engineers have abundant experiences developing similar systems, they can construct a knowledge-base consisting of historical cost data and use it to estimate the cost of concept. However, if the firm is entering a new market, engineers do not have historical cost data to accurately estimate the cost of concept. In this case, engineers need to benchmark similar systems in the marketplace and construct a knowledge-base with the benchmarked information. This paper proposes an approach toward developing a distribution (belief) about the cost of concept using a knowledge-base. The proposed approach retrieves a subset of information from the knowledge-base relevant to estimating the cost of concept, constructs a histogram about the cost of concept, and develops a distribution of the cost of concept. This paper demonstrates the proposed approach by using printers as an illustrative example.

Applying Function-Based Failure Propagation in Conceptual Design

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Krus ◽  
Katie Grantham Lough
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Thermal Control ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Historical Knowledge ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Potential Risks

When designing a product, the earlier the potential risks can be identified, the more costs can be saved, as it is easier to modify a design in its early stages. Several methods exist to analyze the risk in a system, but all require a mature design. However, by applying the concept of “common interfaces” to a functional model and utilizing a historical knowledge base, it is possible to analyze chains of failures during the conceptual phase of product design. This paper presents a method based on these “common interfaces” to be used in conjunction with other methods such as Risk in Early Design in order to allow a more complete risk analysis during the conceptual design phase. Finally, application of this method is demonstrated in a design setting by applying it to a thermal control subsystem.

Variantenreiche Fabrikplanung*/Variant-based factory planning - Automatically generated simulation models to support factory engineering

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (09) ◽  
pp. 640-646
Author(s):  
J. Jaensch ◽  
A. Neyrinck ◽  
A. Lechler ◽  
A. Prof. Verl
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Factory Planning ◽  
Cycle Times ◽  
Automated Generation ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase

Maschinen und besonders Anlagen werden meist in individuellen Prozessen entwickelt. Bereits in der Angebots- und Konzeptionsphase werden im direkten Austausch mit dem Auftraggeber unterschiedliche Varianten diskutiert und iteriert. Zur Bewertung der Varianten sind neben den Anschaffungskosten unter anderem laufzeitabhängige Größen wie Taktzeiten und Energieeffizienz zu untersuchen. Der Beitrag stellt einen Ansatz zur simulationsbasierten Untersuchung für die automatisierte Variantengenerierung von Anlagen vor.   The development of machines or plants is a very individual process. Within the conceptual design phase, many different variants have to be discussed with customers and adapted to their needs. For a decent evaluation of the different variants, many parameters beyond static values such as costs are important. Term-dependent values like cycle times and energy efficiency also have to be investigated. This paper presents a method for the automated generation of plant variants based on simulation.

A framework for automatic architectural synthesis in conceptual design phase

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 665-689
Author(s):  
C. Hartmann ◽  
R. Chenouard ◽  
E. Mermoz ◽  
A. Bernard
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Architectural Synthesis

scholarly journals Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability Usage in the Development of the 501F Combustion Turbine and Auxiliaries

1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Engel ◽  
P. J. Tyler ◽  
L. R. Wood ◽  
D. T. Entenmann
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Critical Components ◽  
Tools And Techniques ◽  
Reliability And Availability

Westinghouse has been a strong supporter of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) principles during product design and development. This is exemplified by the actions taken during the design of the 501F engine to ensure that high reliability and availability was achieved. By building upon past designs, utilizing those features most beneficial, and improving other areas, a highly reliable product was developed. A full range of RAM tools and techniques were utilized to achieve this result, including reliability allocations, modelling, and effective redesign of critical components. These activities began during the conceptual design phase and will continue throughout the life cycle of these engines until they are decommissioned.

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