Reliability Analysis of Defect-Containing Structures Using Partial Safety Factors
Some standards of structural integrity assessment such as BS 7910 and API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 recommend values of partial safety factor (PSF) applied to the deterministic engineering critical assessments of flaw-containing structures to achieve certain reliability levels. However, it is still uncertain as to whether the use of the PSFs can achieve the target reliability level specified in the codes, or excessively exceed the targets (un-conservative) or under-reach the targets (too conservative). This work was undertaken to make investigations into these issues raised from the use of PSFs through case studies involving deterministic fitness-for-service analysis incorporating PSFs and probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. Two cases, a through-thickness crack and a surface-breaking elliptical crack in a plate subjected to tension, were considered. The results in terms of failure probability from the studied cases have shown a general trend that for each of the four PSFs recommended in BS 7910, the failure probability decreased as the assessments changed from the elastic fracture region to the plastic collapse region in the failure assessment diagram. Some over-conservatism has been found in certain situations from the use of PSFs recommended in BS 7910:2005. Cautions are given for application of the PSFs for integrity assessment of the structures and components containing flaws.