Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tanker Design

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Torfinn Ho̸rte ◽  
Rolf Skjong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Global warming and extreme weather events reported in the last years have attracted a lot of attention in academia, industry and media. The ongoing debate around the observed climate change has focused on three important questions: will occurrence of extreme weather events increase in the future, which geographical locations will be most affected, and to what degree will climate change have impact on future ship traffic and design of ships and offshore structures? The present study shortly reviews the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, AR4, [1] and other relevant publications regarding projections of meteorological and oceanographic conditions in the 21st century and beyond with design needs in focus. Emphasis is on wave climate and its potential implications on safe design and operations of ship structures. A risk based approach for marine structure design accounting for climate change is proposed. The impact of expected wave climate change on ship design is demonstrated for five oil tankers, ranging from Product tanker to VLCC. Consequences of climate change for the hull girder failure probability and hence the steel weight of the deck in the midship region is shown. Recommendations for future research activities allowing adaptation to climate change are given.

On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick ◽  
Daithi Stone ◽  
Dann M. Mitchell ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Andrew David King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. “system breaking” events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Zeuli ◽  
Austin Nijhuis ◽  
Ronald Macfarlane ◽  
Taryn Ridsdale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Access ◽  
Food System ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto’s High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto’s food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City’s emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the “last mile” of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.

scholarly journals Perceived Effects of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Forests and Forest-Based Livelihoods in Malawi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 11748
Author(s):  
Harold L. W. Chisale ◽  
Paxie W. Chirwa ◽  
Folaranmi D. Babalola ◽  
Samuel O. M. Manda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Forest Reserves ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
The Impact

The emerging risks and impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on forest ecosystems present significant threats to forest-based livelihoods. Understanding climate change and its consequences on forests and the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities could support forest-based strategies for responding to climate change. Using perception-based assessment principles, we assessed the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on forests and forest-based livelihood among the forest-dependent communities around the Mchinji and Phirilongwe Forest Reserves in the Mchinji and Mangochi districts in Malawi. Content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data. The impact of erratic rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, flooding, and droughts was investigated using logistic regression models. The respondents perceived increasing erratic rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, flooding, and droughts as key extreme climate events in their locality. These results varied significantly between the study sites (p < 0.05). Erratic rainfall was perceived to pose extended effects on access to the forest in both Phirilongwe in Mangochi (43%) and Mchinji (61%). Climate change was found to be associated with reduced availability of firewood, thatch grasses, fruits and food, vegetables, mushrooms, and medicinal plants (p < 0.05). Erratic rainfall and high temperatures were more likely perceived to cause reduced availability of essential forest products, and increased flooding and strong winds were less likely attributed to any effect on forest product availability. The study concludes that climate change and extreme weather events can affect the access and availability of forest products for livelihoods. Locally based approaches such as forest products domestication are recommended to address threats to climate-sensitive forest-based livelihoods.

scholarly journals Endless November? Citizen Beliefs Concerning Wood As A Construction Material Under Extreme Weather Events

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Vehola ◽  
Elias Hurmekoski ◽  
Katja Lähtinen ◽  
Enni Ruokamo ◽  
Anders Roos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Wood Construction ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract Climate change places great pressure on the construction sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions and to create solutions that perform well in changing weather conditions. In the urbanizing world, wood construction has been identified as one of the opportunities for mitigating these emissions. Our study explores citizen opinions on wood usage as a building material under expected mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at a changing climate and extreme weather events. The data are founded on an internet-based survey material collected from a consumer panel from Finland and Sweden during May–June 2021, with a total of 2015 responses. By employing exploratory factor analysis, we identified similar belief structures for the two countries, consisting of both positive and negative views on wood construction. In linear regressions for predicting these opinions, the perceived seriousness of climate change was found to increase positive views on wood construction but was insignificant for negative views. Both in Finland and Sweden, higher familiarity with wooden multistory construction was found to connect with more positive opinions on the potential of wood in building, e.g., due to carbon storage properties and material attributes. Our findings underline the potential of wood material use as one avenue of climate change adaptation in the built environment. Future research should study how citizens’ concerns for extreme weather events affect their future material preferences in their everyday living environments, also beyond the Nordic region.

scholarly journals Silver Lining to Extreme Weather Events? Democracy and Climate Change Mitigation

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Lauri Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Long-standing meteorological research has established that anthropogenic climate change increases the risk and intensity of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, and forest fires. However, comparatively little is known about the impact of such events on policy ambition. Studies on the topic emerged only recently and tend to focus on individual country cases. A comprehensive cross-country perspective is still missing. This article addresses the gap in the literature using large-scale analyses on the basis of country-level data from 2008 to 2017. The findings indicate that extreme weather events propel only highly functioning democracies to tackle climate change. Effects among remaining country cases are insignificant. This variation in the data can be attributed to democracies’ concern for the common good and the perspectives of those most affected by climate-related disasters.

On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

&lt;p&gt;Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.&lt;/p&gt;

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2112087118
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution may result in false negative results due to dynamical noise overwhelming any climate change signal. The “storyline” attribution framework, in which the impact of climate change on individual drivers of an extreme event is examined, aims to mitigate these concerns. Here we propose a methodology for attribution of extreme weather events using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium-range forecast model that successfully predicted the event. The use of a successful forecast ensures not only that the model is able to accurately represent the event in question, but also that the analysis is unequivocally an attribution of this specific event, rather than a mixture of multiple different events that share some characteristic. Since this attribution methodology is conditioned on the component of the event that was predictable at forecast initialization, we show how adjusting the lead time of the forecast can flexibly set the level of conditioning desired. This flexible adjustment of the conditioning allows us to synthesize between a storyline (highly conditioned) and a risk-based (relatively unconditioned) approach. We demonstrate this forecast-based methodology through a partial attribution of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.

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