Reliability Analysis of Ultimate Longitudinal Strength for Ships in Yangtze River

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Deng ◽  
Ji Guo ◽  
Chuang Fang ◽  
Lu-yao Zou
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Longitudinal Strength ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
Wave Induced

With Consideration of the uncertainties of materials yield strength, still water bending moment and wave-induced bending moment, the failure equation is established based on reliability analysis method. The reliabilities of 33 ships navigating in Yangtze River are calculated using improved FOSM method, according to which the target reliability is obtained, and the partial safety factors for hull girder ultimate strength, still water bending moment and wave-induced bending moment are given. As a result the formula for probability assessment of ultimate strength is established. Verification of sample ships shows that the formula is accurate and useful.

Structural Reliability Analysis Applied on Steel Ships for Rule Partial Safety Factors Calibration

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Benhamou ◽  
Quentin Derbanne ◽  
Jérôme de Lauzon
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Structural Rules ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
Common Structural Rules

Ultimate strength assessments in current IACS Common Structural Rules (CSR) are determined by a limited number of constant partial safety factors (PSF). These coefficients are inherited from the previous Common Structural Rules for Oil Tankers, and were determined using a structural reliability analysis (SRA) based on a limited number ship. The authors decided to lead a more comprehensive structural reliability analysis to propose and discuss a new set of rule formulations. A literature review is carried out in order to determine an extensive database of virtual ships covering the whole range of existing ships with a few representative parameters. SRA is applied for ultimate strength assessment on this database. Uncertainties are modeled by a set of probability distributions applied to each characteristic quantity (still water bending moment, wave bending moment and capacity) and a Second Order Reliability Method (SORM) is used to target the ultimate capacity corresponding to a given failure probability for each ship. A set of several PSF formulations are then derived from these results using both Working Stress Design (WSD) and Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approaches. These formulations are then discussed to get an optimum between simplicity and accuracy of the results.

Partial Safety Factors for Vertical Bending Loads on Containerships

1992 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. O¨stergaard
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Bending Moments ◽  
Wave Loads ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
The North ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Partial Safety Factors

International design codes for seagoing steel ships of today are in the process of testing a new safety format with load factors separately multiplied with nominal (code) values of still water and wave loads. This leads to two design values of these loads, the sum of which must not exceed a design value of the strength of the ship structure, which is again a nominal (code) value of strength, this time divided by a strength factor. Such load and strength factors are generally termed partial safety factors. In the paper, vertical still water and wave bending moments of containerships are considered as loads. The partial safety factors are determined on the basis of reliability analysis, i.e., the sum of the design values of the loads will not exceed a design serviceability limit state of the ship’s structure with given probability. To enable reliability analysis, distribution density of the ship’s strength to resist bending moments is based on a stochastic interpretation of nominal (code) values used in the conventional safety format. The probability density of the still water bending moment is obtained from recently published statistical data. The probability density of the wave bending moment is calculated using advanced hydrodynamic and spectral analysis, including long-term statistics of the (North Atlantic) seaway. Reliability and related design values are estimated using the FORM algorithm with due consideration of the different repetition numbers for which the stochastic models of the two bending moments are valid. The results are presented as nonlinear regression formulas and as diagrams that specify partial safety factors related to length and beam of containerships. The nominal values of bending moments to be used with these partial safety factors are given as functions of length, beam, and block coefficient of those ships.

The application of Structural Reliability Analysis on hull girder ultimate strength of bulk carriers-a trial on Safety Level Approach

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daokun Zhang ◽  
Wenyong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Rules ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Trial Analysis ◽  
Bulk Carriers ◽  
Partial Safety Factors

The International Maritime Organization is developing the Goal Based Standard, in which the Safety Level Approach(SLA) is one of the two parallel ways forward focusing on deriving explicit and reasonable safety level. During the development of Safety Level Approach, the Structural Reliability Analysis(SRA) is recognized as one of the useful tools. The application of SRA on the calibration of partial safety factors for hull girder ultimate strength is so far a typical illustration, which could be very helpful for the application of Safety Level Approach on the structural Rules in the future. China Classification Society (CCS) carries out a trial analysis with co-operation of Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Ultimate Strength and Structural Reliability Analysis of FPSO Hull Girder

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eldho Paul ◽  
Appapillal Thavalingam ◽  
Pumendu K. Das
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Strength Analysis ◽  
State Function ◽  
Ultimate Capacity ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Wave Induced

The aim of this paper is to provide some results from an investigation on available simplified formulations for ultimate strength analysis of the gull girder and the possibility of extending these methods in order to couple with reliability computations. This particular study is based on an analytical method proposed by Paik and Mansour. The procedure is enhanced to include structural reliability analysis of FPSOs based on probabilistic approach where uncertainties for both capacity and loading of the structure are taken into account. The estimation of the Ultimate longitudinal capacity and the probability of failure of the FPSO are carried out by dividing the cross section of the hull girder into beam column elements considering the different loads acting on the hull. The limit state function is formulated considering the loads acting on the hull girder and ultimate capacity. The ultimate capacity of the hull is taken as a function of variety of random variable (e.g. area of cross section and yield stresses of the different ship components, etc). The loads acting on the hull girder, both still water and wave induced are calculated using IACS and DNV rules and margins are provided to take care of the long-term deployment of FPSO at sea. Some results from the sensitivity analysis are also provided which has been carried out to study the influence of several factors on the structural reliability of the ship under extreme wave induced bending moment loads.

The Effect of Sloshing in Tanks on Motions and Hull Girder Responses of Damaged Vessels

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huirong Jia ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Roll Motion ◽  
Multimodal Approach ◽  
Rectangular Shape ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Oil Tankers

The structural reliability analysis of damaged vessels has up to now commonly been investigated by neglecting the effect of sloshing. This paper deals with the effect of sloshing in tanks on motions and hull girder responses of oil tankers in various damage conditions and represents a part of a study to assess the effect of sloshing on hull girder failure of damaged vessels, The flooded tanks are assumed to have a of rectangular shape and linear multimodal approach is adopted to deal with sloshing. It is concluded that even though the effect of sloshing in tanks on the roll motion of vessels can be neglected in certain damage conditions, the effect of sloshing on the horizontal bending moment cannot be neglected, especially when resonance motion occurs.

Experimental Assessment of Form Based Approach for Predicting Extreme Value Distribution of Hull Girder Bending Moment in a Ship

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoki Takami ◽  
Yusuke Komoriyama ◽  
Takahiro Ando ◽  
Kazuhiro Iijima
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Irregular Waves ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Scaled Model ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Wave Induced

Abstract This paper describes a series of towing tank tests using a scaled model of a recent container ship for validating the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) based approach to predict the maximum response. The FORM based approach is adopted in conjunction with the nonlinear strip method as an estimation method for the most probable wave episodes (MPWEs) leading to the given extreme wave-induced vertical bending moments (VBMs). Tank tests under the pre-determined MPWEs are conducted to evaluate the extreme wave-induced VBMs. Numerical simulations based on the coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) are also conducted and are compared with the test results under the MPWEs. Furthermore, to estimate the extreme VBM statistics, tank tests under random irregular waves are conducted. A series of validations of the probability of exceedances (PoEs) of the VBM evaluated from the FORM based approach is carried out. The effect of hydroelastic (whipping) vibrations on the extreme VBM statistics are finally discussed.

Fatigue Safety Factors for Flexible Risers Based on Case Specific Reliability Analysis

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Ragnar T. Igland ◽  
Gro S. Baarholm ◽  
Knut A. Farnes ◽  
Dick Percy
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Fatigue Lifetime ◽  
Statistical Variation ◽  
Parametric Studies ◽  
Flexible Risers ◽  
Corrosive Environments ◽  
Wave Induced

In the present paper, fatigue safety factors for flexible risers are assessed. A procedure for reliability analysis of wave-induced fatigue is first described. The procedure is based on performing a number of parametric studies with respect to variables that influence the fatigue lifetime. The results of these parametric studies are subsequently combined with models describing the statistical scatter of the same parameters. By application of this procedure, the safety factors which are required in order to reach specific target reliability levels can be computed. Such safety factors are computed for three specific flexible riser configurations. Different SN -curves which correspond to different corrosive environments are considered. The percentwise contribution from each parameter to the total statistical variation of the limit state function is also quantified.

scholarly journals Analysis on the Hull Girder Ultimate Strength of a Bulk Carrier Using Simplified Method Based on an Incremental–Iterative Approach

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Ozguc ◽  
P. K. Das ◽  
N. D. P. Barltrop
Keyword(s):  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Interaction Design ◽  
Curvature Vector ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Iterative Approach ◽  
Bulk Carrier ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Simplified Method ◽  
The Moment

The hull girder ultimate strength of a typical bulk carrier is analyzed using simplified method based on an incremental–iterative approach. First, vertical bending moment is examined by seven different methods. The moment versus curvature curves and the values of the ultimate longitudinal moments at collapse states are determined for both hogging and sagging cases. Secondly, the ultimate strength under coupled vertical and horizontal bending moment is accounted. An interaction curve is obtained corresponding to the results of series of calculation for the ship hull subject to bending conditions with different angles of curvature. It is found that the interaction curve is asymmetrical because the hull cross-section is not symmetrical with respect to horizontal axis and the structural response of the elements under compression is different from that under tension due to nonlinearity caused by buckling. The angles of the resultant bending moment vector and that of the curvature vector are different in investigated cases. The interaction design equations proposed by other researches are also addressed to discuss the results presented by this study.

Assessment of the Total Ship’s Hull Girder Bending Stresses When Unified Model of Sagging and Hogging Bending Moments is Used

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyuben D. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Life Span ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Extreme Value Statistics ◽  
Bending Moments ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Section Modulus ◽  
Probabilistic Distribution ◽  
Bending Stresses ◽  
Distribution Laws ◽  
Wave Induced

A method is proposed for calculating the hull girder bending stresses following the procedure in the class rules but in probabilistic terms, i.e. the still water and the wave-induced bending moments; the total hull girder bending moment; the hull girder section modulus and the hull girder bending stresses are treated as random variables with corresponding probabilistic distributions. The still water and wave-induced hull girder hogging and sagging loads are presented in probabilistic format as one phenomenon, i.e. using bi-modal probability density functions. The probabilistic distribution of the total hull girder load is calculated using the rules of the composition of the distribution laws of the constituent variables. After that, the hull girder geometric properties are presented in probabilistic format as annual distributions and distributions for any given life-span. Thus, it becomes possible to calculate both the annual probabilistic distributions and the probabilistic distribution for any given ship’s life span of the hull girder stresses. Individual amplitudes statistical analysis and extreme value statistics are used. Then, the probability of exceeding the permissible hull girder bending stresses in the class rules is calculated. An example is given for 25K DWT bulk carrier.

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