scholarly journals Interdependent program evaluation: Geographic and social spillovers in COVID-19 closures and reopenings in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (31) ◽  
pp. eabe7733
Author(s):  
Michael Zhao ◽  
David Holtz ◽  
Sinan Aral
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Program Evaluation ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Social Spillovers ◽  
Reduced Mobility

In an interconnected world, understanding policy spillovers is essential. We propose a program evaluation framework to measure policy spillover effects and apply that framework to study the governmental responses to COVID-19 in the United States. Our analysis suggests the presence of social spillovers. We estimate that while state closures directly reduced mobility by 3 to 4%, all other states locking down further decreased mobility in the focal state by 8 to 14%. Similarly, while reopening directly increased mobility by 2 to 3%, all other states’ reopening increased mobility in the focal state by 12 to 21%. Our analysis also suggests geographic spillovers: Travel from locked down origins to open destinations increased by 12 to 29%. In contrast, travel from reopened origins to locked down destinations decreased by 6 to 7% for nearby counties and by 14 to 18% for distant counties. Despite its limitations, we believe that our approach takes the first steps toward creating a framework for interdependent program evaluation across policy domains.

scholarly journals Taking the Cloth: How Religious Appeals Increase Compliance with COVID-19 Prevention Measures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Adida ◽  
Christina Cottiero ◽  
Leonardo Falabella ◽  
Isabel Gotti ◽  
Syeda ShahBano Ijaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Social Identity Theory ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Prevention Measure ◽  
Prevention Guidelines

During the COVID-19 pandemic, face masks have been recommended by the CDC and the WHO as key to reducing viral transmission. Yet, in the United States, one fifth of individuals say they wear masks at most some of the time, and a majority say that people in their community wear masks at most some of the time. What strategies most effectively encourage compliance with this critical covid-19 prevention measure? Relying on social identity theory, we experimentally assess two possible mechanisms of compliance, elite endorsement and social norms, among a representative sample of White U.S.–born Evangelicals, a group that has shown resistance to prevention measures. We find evidence for both mechanisms, but social norms play a remarkably important role – increasing support for mask-wearing by 6% with spillover effects on other prevention guidelines. Our findings confirm the role that appeals to norms and elite endorsements play in shaping individual behavior, and offer lessons for public health messaging.

scholarly journals Patchwork Policies, Spillovers, and the Search for Oil and Gas

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 380-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Lewis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Federal Land

The United States has a complex patchwork of mineral ownership, where rights to oil and gas may be owned by the federal government, state governments, or private agents. I show why the policies imposed by one owner have theoretically ambiguous spillover effects on the drilling and production outcomes of neighboring plots of land. Exploiting a natural experiment in Wyoming with exogenous ownership assignment, I find significant spillovers: federal land close to state land has a lower probability of drilling than federal land far from state land. (JEL H82, L71, P14,Q35, Q38)

scholarly journals Domestic Lending and the Pandemic: How Does Banks' Exposure to Covid-19 Abroad Affect Their Lending in the United States?

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (056) ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Judit Temesvary ◽  
◽  
Andrew Wei ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Registry Data ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
The U.S

We study how U.S. banks' exposure to the economic fallout due to governments' response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks' cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign countries with the most detailed regulatory ("credit registry") data that is available on their U.S.-based lending. We compare the change in the U.S. lending of banks that are more vs. less exposed to the pandemic abroad, during and after the onset of Covid-19 in 2020. We document strong spillover effects: U.S. banks with higher foreign exposures in badly "Covid-19-hit" regions cut their lending in the United States substantially more. This effect is particularly strong for longer-maturity loans and term loans and is robust to controlling for firms’ pandemic exposure.

scholarly journals Analysis of Trade Diversion Effect Under Sino-us Trade Friction - Taking Developing Countries and Developed Countries As Examples

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 01031
Author(s):  
Chuang Deng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
The Third ◽  
Trade Friction ◽  
Trade Frictions

Under the background of sino-us trade friction, what kind of trade diversion effect will china produce to the third country market. Based on the monthly import and export data of China and its 11 major trading partners from January 2014 to December 2019, this paper analyzes the trade diversion of sino-us trade frictions to China’s neighboring countries by using the double-difference and panel quantile methods, and through the selection of developing countries and developed countries as a control group for the spillover effects of trade transfer analysis. Empirical analysis: under the background of China’s trade frictions, China’s imports and exports to the United States have been significantly negatively affected, the trade conflict between China and the United States has a significant trade diversion effect on the third country, and the spillover effect on the developing country is larger and longer-term than that on the developed country.

scholarly journals The effects from the United States and Japan to emerging stock markets in Asia and Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
AISDL
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The U.S

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States (U.S.) in mid-2008 suggests that stock prices volatility do spillover from one market to another after international stock markets downturn. The purpose of this paper is to examine the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers from developed markets (the U.S. and Japan) to eight emerging equity markets (India, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand) and Vietnam. Employing a mean and volatility spillover model that deals with the U.S. and Japan shocks and day effects as exogenous variables in ARMA(1,1), GARCH(1,1) for Asian emerging markets, the study finds some interesting findings. Firstly, the day effect is present on six out of nine studied markets, except for the Indian, Taiwanese and Philippine. Secondly, the results of return spillover confirm significant spillover effects across the markets with different magnitudes. Specifically, the U.S. exerts a stronger influence on the Malaysian, Philippine and Vietnamese market compared with Japan. In contrast, Japan has a higher spillover effect on the Chinese, Indian, Korea, and Thailand than the U.S. For the Indonesian market, the return effect is equal. Finally, there is no evidence of a volatility effect of the U.S. and Japanese markets on the Asian emerging markets in this study.

scholarly journals Do Charitable Subsidies Crowd Out Political Giving? The Missing Link between Charitable and Political Contributions

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 407-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş K. Yörük
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Charitable Giving ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Political Organizations ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Charitable Contributions ◽  
Tax Rate

Abstract In the United States, charitable contributions can be deducted from taxable income making the price of giving inversely related to the marginal tax rate. However, several other types of contributions such as donations to political organizations are not tax deductible. This paper investigates the spillover effects of charitable subsidies on political giving using five cross-sectional surveys of charitable and political giving in the United States conducted from 1990 to 2001. The results show that charitable and political giving are complements. Compared with non-donors, charitable donors are more likely to donate and give more to political organizations. Increasing the price of charitable giving decreases not only charitable giving but also the probability of giving and the amount of donations to political organizations. This effect is robust under different specifications and highlights the externalities created by charitable subsidies.

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