scholarly journals Delicate seafloor landforms reveal past Antarctic grounding-line retreat of kilometers per year

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6494) ◽  
pp. 1020-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Dowdeswell ◽  
C. L. Batchelor ◽  
A. Montelli ◽  
D. Ottesen ◽  
F. D. W. Christie ◽  
...  

A suite of grounding-line landforms on the Antarctic seafloor, imaged at submeter horizontal resolution from an autonomous underwater vehicle, enables calculation of ice sheet retreat rates from a complex of grounding-zone wedges on the Larsen continental shelf, western Weddell Sea. The landforms are delicate sets of up to 90 ridges, <1.5 meters high and spaced 20 to 25 meters apart. We interpret these ridges as the product of squeezing up of soft sediment during the rise and fall of the retreating ice sheet grounding line during successive tidal cycles. Grounding-line retreat rates of 40 to 50 meters per day (>10 kilometers per year) are inferred during regional deglaciation of the Larsen shelf. If repeated today, such rapid mass loss to the ocean would have clear implications for increasing the rate of global sea level rise.

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 17-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.J. Böhmer ◽  
K. Herterich

We present a simplified numerical three-dimensional ice-sheet/ice-shelf model with a coarse horizontal resolution (100 km), designed for simulations of ice-volume changes on ice-age time scales (100 000 years and longer). The ice-sheet part uses the shallow-ice approximation to determine the flow, and includes a three-dimensional temperature calculation. The ice shelf is described in a quasi-stationary way. Ice-shelf thickness depends only on the thicknesses at the grounding line and the distances to the grounding line. The effect of the transition zone between ice sheet and ice shelf (assuming a width ≪100 km) is parameterized in terms of the ice thicknesses defined on the coarse grid. The characteristics at the base of the transition zone formally enter through a friction coefficient μ. We performed a series of sensitivity experiments with the coupled system, by integrating over 10 000 model years, starting from the present (modelled) state of the Antarctic and forcing the model by currently-observed accumulation rates. The position of the grounding line of the ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is quite sensitive to the choice of the friction parameter μ (in the range 0.025 > μ > 0.01). With μ = 0.05, the grounding line was maintained at the currently-observed position in the model.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas

Abstract. Of primary societal importance, the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century remains largely uncertain. In particular, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 ranges from a few millimetres to more than one metre in the recent literature. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 aimed at reducing the uncertainties on the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 mm to +150 mm of sea level equivalent. Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves and implies grounding line retreats while increased precipitation partially mitigates the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-shelf basal melt induce large differences in simulated grounding line retreats, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for the projections of the Antarctic ice sheet.


1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 17-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.J. Böhmer ◽  
K. Herterich

We present a simplified numerical three-dimensional ice-sheet/ice-shelf model with a coarse horizontal resolution (100 km), designed for simulations of ice-volume changes on ice-age time scales (100 000 years and longer). The ice-sheet part uses the shallow-ice approximation to determine the flow, and includes a three-dimensional temperature calculation. The ice shelf is described in a quasi-stationary way. Ice-shelf thickness depends only on the thicknesses at the grounding line and the distances to the grounding line. The effect of the transition zone between ice sheet and ice shelf (assuming a width ≪100 km) is parameterized in terms of the ice thicknesses defined on the coarse grid. The characteristics at the base of the transition zone formally enter through a friction coefficient μ. We performed a series of sensitivity experiments with the coupled system, by integrating over 10 000 model years, starting from the present (modelled) state of the Antarctic and forcing the model by currently-observed accumulation rates. The position of the grounding line of the ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is quite sensitive to the choice of the friction parameter μ (in the range 0.025 &gt; μ &gt; 0.01). With μ = 0.05, the grounding line was maintained at the currently-observed position in the model.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1031-1052
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution.


Author(s):  
James CROLL ◽  
David SUGDEN

ABSTRACT At a time when nobody has yet landed on the Antarctic continent (1879), this presentation and accompanying paper predicts the morphology, dynamics and thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet. Mathematical modelling of the ice sheet is based on the assumptions that the thickness of tabular icebergs reflects the average thickness of the ice at the margin and that the surface gradients are comparable to those of reconstructed former ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. The modelling shows that (a) ice is thickest near the centre at the South Pole and thins towards the margin; (b) the thickness at the pole is independent of the amount of snowfall at that place; and (c) the mean velocity at the margin, assuming a mean annual snowfall of two inches per year, is 400–500 feet per year. The thermal regime of the ice sheet is influenced by three heat sources – namely, the bed, the internal friction of ice flow and the atmosphere. The latter is the most significant and, since ice has a downwards as well as horizontal motion, this carries cold ice down into the ice sheet. Since the temperature at which ice melts is lowered by pressure at a rate of 0.0137 °F for every atmosphere of pressure (something known since 1784), much of the ice sheet and its base must be below the freezing point. Estimates of the thickness of ice at the centre depend closely on the surface gradients assumed and range between 3 and 24 miles. Such uncertainty is of concern since both the volume and gravitational attraction of the ice mass have an effect on global sea level. In order to improve our estimate of the volume of ice, we will have to wait 76 years for John Glen to develop a realistic flow law for ice.


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Levermann ◽  
R. Winkelmann ◽  
S. Nowicki ◽  
J. L. Fastook ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
...  

Abstract. The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04–0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02–0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07–0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04–0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Aitken ◽  
Lu Li ◽  
Bernd Kulessa ◽  
Thomas Jordan ◽  
Joanne Whittaker ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Subglacial and ice-sheet marginal sedimentary basins have very different physical properties to crystalline bedrock and, therefore, form distinct conditions that influence the flow of ice above. Sedimentary rocks are particularly soft and erodible, and therefore capable of sustaining layers of subglacial till that may deform to facilitate fast ice flow downstream. Furthermore, sedimentary rocks are relatively permeable and thus allow for enhanced fluid flux, with associated impacts on ice-sheet dynamics, including feedbacks with subglacial hydrologic systems and transport of heat to the ice-sheet bed. Despite the importance for ice-sheet dynamics there is, at present, no comprehensive record of sedimentary basins in the Antarctic continent, limiting our capacity to investigate these influences. Here we develop the first version of an Antarctic-wide spatial database of sedimentary basins, their geometries and physical attributes. We emphasise the definition of in-situ and undeformed basins that retain their primary characteristics, including relative weakness and high permeability, and therefore are more likely to influence ice sheet dynamics. We define the likely extents and nature of sedimentary basins, considering a range of geological and geophysical data, including: outcrop observations, gravity and magnetic data, radio-echo sounding data and passive and active-source seismic data. Our interpretation also involves derivative products from these data, including analyses guided by machine learning. The database includes for each basin its defining characteristics in the source datasets, and interpreted information on likely basin age, sedimentary thickness, surface morphology and tectonic type. The database is constructed in ESRI geodatabase format and is suitable for incorporation in multifaceted data-interpretation and modelling procedures. It can be readily updated given new information. We define extensive basins in both East and West Antarctica, including major regions in the Ross and Weddell Sea embayments and the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica, and the Wilkes, Aurora and Recovery subglacial basins of East Antarctica. The compilation includes smaller basins within crystalline-bedrock dominated areas such as the Transantarctic Mountains, the Antarctic Peninsula and Dronning Maud Land. The distribution of sedimentary basins reveals the combined influence of the tectonic and glacial history of Antarctica on the current and future configuration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and highlights areas in which the presence of dynamically-evolving subglacial till layers and the exchange of groundwater and heat with the ice sheet bed &amp;#160;are more likely, contributing to dynamic behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;


1999 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 55-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Dahe ◽  
Paul A. Mayewski ◽  
Ren Jiawen ◽  
Xiao Cunde ◽  
Sun Junying

AbstractGlaciochemical analysis of surface snow samples, collected along a profile crossing the Antarctic ice sheet from the Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, via the Antarctic Plateau through South Pole, Vostok and Komsomolskaya to Mirny station (at the east margin of East Antarctica), shows that the Weddell Sea region is an important channel for air masses to the high plateau of the Antarctic ice sheet (>2000 m a.s.l.). This opinion is supported by the following. (1) The fluxes of sea-salt ions such as Na+, Mg2 + and CF display a decreasing trend from the west to the east of interior Antarctica. In |eneral, as sea-salt aerosols are injected into the atmosphere over the Antarctic ice sheet from the Weddell Sea, large aerosols tend to decrease. For the inland plateau, few large particles of sea-salt aerosol reach the area, and the sea-salt concentration levels are low (2) The high altitude of the East Antarctic plateau, as well as the polar cold high-pressure system, obstruct the intrusive air masses mainly from the South Indian Ocean sector. (3) For the coastal regions of the East Antarctic ice sheet, the elevation rises to 2000 m over a distance from several to several tens of km. High concentrations of sea salt exist in snow in East Antarctica but are limited to a narrow coastal zone. (4) Fluxes of calcium and non-sea-salt sulfate in snow from the interior plateau do not display an eastward-decreasing trend. Since calcium is mainly derived from crustal sources, and nssSO42- is a secondary aerosol, this again confirms that the eastward-declining tendency of sea-salt ions indicates the transfer direction of precipitation vapor.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2615-2631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Tigchelaar ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Tobias Friedrich ◽  
Malte Heinemann ◽  
David Pollard

Abstract. Antarctic ice volume has varied substantially during the late Quaternary, with reconstructions suggesting a glacial ice sheet extending to the continental shelf break and interglacial sea level highstands of several meters. Throughout this period, changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet were driven by changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions and global sea level; yet, so far modeling studies have not addressed which of these environmental forcings dominate and how they interact in the dynamical ice sheet response. Here, we force an Antarctic Ice Sheet model with global sea level reconstructions and transient, spatially explicit boundary conditions from a 408 ka climate model simulation, not only in concert with each other but, for the first time, also separately. We find that together these forcings drive glacial–interglacial ice volume changes of 12–14 ms.l.e., in line with reconstructions and previous modeling studies. None of the individual drivers – atmospheric temperature and precipitation, ocean temperatures, or sea level – single-handedly explains the full ice sheet response. In fact, the sum of the individual ice volume changes amounts to less than half of the full ice volume response, indicating the existence of strong nonlinearities and forcing synergy. Both sea level and atmospheric forcing are necessary to create full glacial ice sheet growth, whereas the contribution of ocean melt changes is found to be more a function of ice sheet geometry than climatic change. Our results highlight the importance of accurately representing the relative timing of forcings of past ice sheet simulations and underscore the need for developing coupled climate–ice sheet modeling frameworks that properly capture key feedbacks.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. e1500589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricarda Winkelmann ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Ken Caldeira

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document