Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in [1] introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in [2] calculated from the interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution in Central Peru. The ISC was derived from GPS monitoring data as well as from historical earthquake information. The results of strong ground motion simulations in [1] reported that the slip scenario with the deepest average peak values along the strike (Mw= 8.86) generates the largest PGA in the Lima-Callao area. In this study, we found from tsunami simulation results that the slip model with the largest peak slip at a shallow depth (Mw= 8.87) yielded the highest tsunami inundation. Such differences in maximum scenarios for peak ground acceleration and tsunami height reveal the importance of a comprehensive assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in order to provide plausible worstcase scenarios for disaster risk management and education.

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Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 254-261 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Takahiro Maeda ◽

Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽

Toshihiko Hayakawa ◽

Satsuki Shimono ◽

Sho Akagi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Principal Components ◽

Nankai Trough ◽

Motion Simulation ◽

Simulation Data ◽

Ground Motion Simulation ◽

Megathrust Earthquake ◽

Earthquake Scenarios ◽

Long Period ◽

Long Period Ground Motion

We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.

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Analysis of Tsunami Hazard Potential in Jakarta Bay from Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios

10.1109/agers53903.2021.9617391 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

W. Windupranata ◽

Candida. A. D. S. Nusantara ◽

S. Mahelda ◽

N. R. Hanifa

Keyword(s):

Tsunami Hazard ◽

Megathrust Earthquake ◽

Earthquake Scenarios ◽

Hazard Potential

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Chapter 7 Site-Specific Tsunami Inundation

Tsunami Loads and Effects ◽

10.1061/9780784481172.ch07 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 63-70

Keyword(s):

Site Specific ◽

Tsunami Inundation

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TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION IN CONSTRUCTION OF TSUNAMI SCENARIO BANK AND INFLUENCED BY TSUNAMI INUNDATION CALCULATION WITH DIFFERENCES OF PROTECTIVE FACILITY

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B2 (Coastal Engineering) ◽

10.2208/kaigan.75.i_379 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 75 (2) ◽

pp. I_379-I_384

Author(s):

Naotaka CHIKASADA ◽

Makoto NEMOTO ◽

Jumpei TAKAYAMA ◽

Wataru SUZUKI ◽

Takayuki MIYOSHI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Arrival Time ◽

Tsunami Inundation ◽

Time Calculation

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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF COSEISMIC LANDSLIDES DURING THE AD 1700 CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE MEGATHRUST EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (USA)

10.1130/abs/2016am-284282 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Sean Richard LaHusen ◽

◽

Alison R. Duvall ◽

Alex R. Grant ◽

Joseph Wartman

Keyword(s):

Subduction Zone ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Cascadia Subduction Zone ◽

Megathrust Earthquake ◽

Coseismic Landslides ◽

The Pacific ◽

The Impact

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The 16 September 2015 Illapel Earthquake and Tsunami: Post-Event Tsunami Inundation, Building and Infrastructure Damage Survey in Coquimbo, Chile

Pure and Applied Geophysics ◽

10.1007/s00024-021-02734-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ryan Paulik ◽

James H. Williams ◽

Nick Horspool ◽

Patricio A. Catalan ◽

Richard Mowll ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tsunami Inundation ◽

Damage Survey ◽

2015 Illapel Earthquake ◽

Illapel Earthquake

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Potential deployment of offshore bottom pressure gauges and adoption of data assimilation for tsunami warning system in the western Mediterranean Sea

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-019-0149-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mohammad Heidarzadeh ◽

Yuchen Wang ◽

Kenji Satake ◽

Iyan E. Mulia

Keyword(s):

Data Assimilation ◽

Warning System ◽

Western Mediterranean ◽

Tsunami Warning ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Bottom Pressure ◽

Tsunami Warning System ◽

Earthquake Scenarios ◽

The North ◽

Western Mediterranean Basin

AbstractWestern Mediterranean Basin (WMB) is among tsunamigenic zones with numerous historical records of tsunami damage and deaths. Most recently, a moderate tsunami on 21 May 2003 offshore Algeria, North Africa, was a fresh call for strengthening tsunami warning capabilities in this enclosed water basin. Here, we propose to deploy offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) and to adopt the framework of a tsunami data assimilation (TDA) approach for providing timely tsunami forecasts. We demonstrate the potential enhancement of the tsunami warning system through the case study of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Four scenarios of OBPG arrangements involving 10, 5, 3 and 2 gauges are considered. The offshore gauges are located at distances of 120–300 km from the North African coast. The warning lead times are 20, 30, 48 and 55 min for four points of interest considered in this study: Ibiza, Palma, Sant Antoni and Barcelona, respectively. The forecast accuracies are in the range of 69–85% for the four OBPG scenarios revealing acceptable accuracies for tsunami warnings. We conclude that installation of OBPGs in the WMB can be helpful for providing successful and timely tsunami forecasts. We note that the OBPG scenarios proposed in this study are applicable only for the case of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Further studies including sensitivity analyses (e.g., number of OBPG stations; earthquake magnitude, strike, epicenter) are required in order to determine OBPG arrangements that could be useful for various earthquake scenarios in the WMB.

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Feasibility study of earthquake early warning in Tehran, Iran

Journal of Seismology ◽

10.1007/s10950-021-10014-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

S. Enferadi ◽

Z. H. Shomali ◽

A. Niksejel

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Earthquake Early Warning ◽

Disaster Mitigation ◽

Lead Times ◽

Worst Case ◽

Earthquake Parameters ◽

Earthquake Early Warning System ◽

Earthquake Scenarios

AbstractIn this study, we examine the scientific feasibility of an Earthquake Early Warning System in Tehran, Iran, by the integration of the Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) accelerometric network and the PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). To evaluate the performance of the TDMMO-PRESTo system in providing the reliable estimations of earthquake parameters and the available lead-times for The Metropolis of Tehran, two different approaches were analyzed in this work. The first approach was assessed by applying the PRESTo algorithms on waveforms from 11 moderate instrumental earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Tehran during the period 2009–2020. Moreover, we conducted a simulation analysis using synthetic waveforms of 10 large historical earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Tehran. We demonstrated that the six worst-case earthquake scenarios can be considered for The Metropolis of Tehran, which are mostly related to the historical and instrumental events that occurred in the southern, eastern, and western parts of Tehran. Our results indicate that the TDMMO-PRESTo system could provide reliable and sufficient lead-times of about 1 to 15s and maximum lead-times of about 20s for civil protection purposes in The Metropolis of Tehran.

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Influence of Earthquakes on Landslide Susceptibility in a Seismic Prone Catchment in Central Asia

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11093768 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 3768

Author(s):

Fengqing Li ◽

Isakbek Torgoev ◽

Damir Zaredinov ◽

Marina Li ◽

Bekhzod Talipov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Asia ◽

Landslide Susceptibility ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Limit Equilibrium ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Equilibrium Analysis ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Earthquake Scenario ◽

Earthquake Scenarios ◽

Local Decision

Central Asia is one of the most challenged places, prone to suffering from various natural hazards, where seismically triggered landslides have caused severe secondary losses. Research on this problem is especially important in the cross-border Mailuu-Suu catchment in Kyrgyzstan, since it is burdened by radioactive legacy sites and frequently affected by earthquakes and landslides. To identify the landslide-prone areas and to quantify the volume of landslide (VOL), Scoops3D was selected to evaluate the slope stability throughout a digital landscape in the Mailuu-Suu catchment. By performing the limit equilibrium analysis, both of landslide susceptibility index (LSI) and VOL were estimated under five earthquake scenarios. The results show that the upstream areas were more seismically vulnerable than the downstream areas. The susceptibility level rose significantly with the increase in earthquake strength, whereas the VOL was significantly higher under the extreme earthquake scenario than under the other four scenarios. After splitting the environmental variables into sub-classes, the spatial variations of LSI and VOL became more clear: the LSI reduced with the increase in elevation, slope, annual precipitation, and distances to faults, roads, and streams, whereas the highest VOL was observed in the areas with moderate elevations, high precipitation, grasslands, and mosaic vegetation. The relative importance analysis indicated that the explanatory power reduced with the increase in earthquake level and it was significant higher for LSI than for VOL. Among nine environmental variables, the distance to faults, annual precipitation, slope, and elevation were identified as important triggers of landslides. By a simultaneous assessment of both LSI and VOL and the identification of important triggers, the proposed modelling approaches can support local decision-makers and householders to identify landslide-prone areas, further design proper landslide hazard and risk management plans and, consequently, contribute to the resolution of transboundary pollution conflicts.

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