Clinicians’ heuristic assessments of radiographs compared with Kellgren-Lawrence and Ahlbäck ordinal grading: an exploratory study of knee radiographs using paired comparisons

ObjectivesOrdinal scales provide means for communicating the severity of a condition, but they are affected by cognitive biases, they introduce statistical problems and they sacrifice resolution. Clinicians discern more details than contained in scales, for example, when assessing radiographs, but clinicians’ distinctions are often based on experience-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics. The objectives of this study are to compare clinicians’ heuristic assessments to ordinal grading, to identify case elements that influence clinicians’ judgements and to present a method for quantifying heuristic assessments.DesignClinicians were presented with 17 207 random pairs from a set of 1087 knee radiographs. For each pair, the radiograph with more severe osteoarthritis was selected. The Bradley-Terry model was used to calculate an osteoarthritis strength parameter for each radiograph. Similarly, strength parameters were determined for 12 morphological features with five additional features being considered either present or absent. All radiographs were also graded according to conventional ordinal systems (Kellgren-Lawrence and Ahlbäck). Relations between clinicians’ judgements and (1) the heuristics-based osteoarthritis strength, (2) conventional ordinal systems and (3) morphological features were investigated.ResultsReceiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the Bradley-Terry model provided a good description of clinicians’ assessments (area under the curve (AUC)=0.97, 95% CI 0.968 to 0.972). Morphological features (AUC=0.90, 95% CI 0.900 to 0.908) provided a superior description of clinicians’ choices compared with conventional ordinal systems (AUC=0.88, 95% CI 0.878 to 0.887 and AUC=0.80, 95% CI 0.796 to 0.809) for Ahlbäck and Kellgren-Lawrence, respectively). The features most strongly associated with osteoarthritis strength were medial joint space width, flattening of the medial femoral and tibial condyles, medial osteophytes and alignment.ConclusionsHeuristics-based assessments give a better distinction than conventional grading systems of knee osteoarthritis. The example presents a general approach to evaluate which features are part of experts’ heuristics. The data suggest that experts discern more details than included in conventional ordinal grading systems. Quantitative heuristic assessments may replace ordinal scales.

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Preoperative T2 mapping MRI of articular cartilage values predicts postoperative osteoarthritis progression following rotational acetabular osteotomy

The Bone & Joint Journal ◽

10.1302/0301-620x.103b9.bjj-2021-0266.r1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 103-B (9) ◽

pp. 1472-1478

Author(s):

Takeshi Shoji ◽

Hideki Saka ◽

Tadashi Inoue ◽

Yuichi Kato ◽

Yusuke Fujiwara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Articular Cartilage ◽

Femoral Head ◽

Early Stage ◽

T2 Mapping ◽

Joint Space Width ◽

Preoperative Assessment ◽

Joint Space ◽

Mapping Technique ◽

Rotational Acetabular Osteotomy ◽

Characteristic Analysis

Aims Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478.

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Predictive validity of biochemical biomarkers in knee osteoarthritis: data from the FNIH OA Biomarkers Consortium

Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases ◽

10.1136/annrheumdis-2016-209252 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 76 (1) ◽

pp. 186-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 88

Author(s):

Virginia Byers Kraus ◽

Jamie E Collins ◽

David Hargrove ◽

Elena Losina ◽

Michael Nevitt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Joint Space Width ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Joint Space ◽

Group Status ◽

Biochemical Biomarkers ◽

Knee Oa ◽

C Statistic ◽

Combinatorial Model ◽

Case Status ◽

Parsimonious Model

ObjectiveTo investigate a targeted set of biochemical biomarkers as predictors of clinically relevant osteoarthritis (OA) progression.MethodsEighteen biomarkers were measured at baseline, 12 months (M) and 24 M in serum (s) and/or urine (u) of cases (n=194) from the OA initiative cohort with knee OA and radiographic and persistent pain worsening from 24 to 48 M and controls (n=406) not meeting both end point criteria. Primary analyses used multivariable regression models to evaluate the association between biomarkers (baseline and time-integrated concentrations (TICs) over 12 and 24 M, transposed to z values) and case status, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline radiographic joint space width, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, pain and pain medication use. For biomarkers with adjusted p<0.1, the c-statistic (area under the curve (AUC)), net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination improvement index were used to further select for hierarchical multivariable discriminative analysis and to determine the most predictive and parsimonious model.ResultsThe 24 M TIC of eight biomarkers significantly predicted case status (ORs per 1 SD change in biomarker): sCTXI 1.28, sHA 1.22, sNTXI 1.25, uC2C-HUSA 1.27, uCTXII, 1.37, uNTXI 1.29, uCTXIα 1.32, uCTXIβ 1.27. 24 M TIC of uCTXII (1.47–1.72) and uC2C-Human Urine Sandwich Assay (HUSA) (1.36–1.50) both predicted individual group status (pain worsening, joint space loss and their combination). The most predictive and parsimonious combinatorial model for case status consisted of 24 M TIC uCTXII, sHA and sNTXI (AUC 0.667 adjusted). Baseline uCTXII and uCTXIα both significantly predicted case status (OR 1.29 and 1.20, respectively).ConclusionsSeveral systemic candidate biomarkers hold promise as predictors of pain and structural worsening of OA.

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Measles Virus IgG Avidity Assay for Use in Classification of Measles Vaccine Failure in Measles Elimination Settings

Clinical and Vaccine Immunology ◽

10.1128/cvi.00406-12 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 19 (11) ◽

pp. 1810-1817 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

Sara Mercader ◽

Philip Garcia ◽

William J. Bellini

Keyword(s):

Measles Virus ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Diagnostic Tools ◽

High Avidity ◽

Characteristic Analysis ◽

Vaccine Failure ◽

Avidity Assay ◽

Igg Avidity

ABSTRACTIn regions where endemic measles virus has been eliminated, diagnostic assays are needed to assist in correctly classifying measles cases irrespective of vaccination status. A measles IgG avidity assay was configured using a commercially available measles-specific IgG enzyme immunoassay by modifying the protocol to include three 5-min washes with diethylamine (60 mM; pH 10.25) following serum incubation; serum was serially diluted, and the results were expressed as the end titer avidity index. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used for evaluation and validation and to establish low (≤30%) and high (≥70%) end titer avidity thresholds. Analysis of 319 serum specimens expected to contain either high- or low-avidity antibodies according to clinical and epidemiological data indicated that the assay is highly accurate, with an area under the curve of 0.998 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.978 to 1.000), sensitivity of 91.9% (95% CI, 83.2% to 97.0%), and specificity of 98.4% (95% CI, 91.6% to 100%). The assay is rapid (<2 h) and precise (standard deviation [SD], 4% to 7%). In 18 samples from an elimination setting outbreak, the assay identified 2 acute measles cases with low-avidity results; both were IgM-positive samples. Additionally, 11 patients (15 samples) with modified measles who were found to have high-avidity IgG results were classified as secondary vaccine failures; one sample with an intermediate-avidity result was not interpretable. In elimination settings, measles IgG avidity assays can complement existing diagnostic tools in confirming unvaccinated acute cases and, in conjunction with adequate clinical and epidemiologic investigation, aid in the classification of vaccine failure cases.

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Head-to-Head Comparison of Two Nomograms Predicting Probability of Lymph Node Invasion in Prostate Cancer and the Therapeutic Impact of Higher Nomogram Threshold

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10050999 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 999

Author(s):

Zilvinas Venclovas ◽

Tim Muilwijk ◽

Aivaras J. Matjosaitis ◽

Mindaugas Jievaltas ◽

Steven Joniau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Pelvic Lymph Node ◽

Cancer Center ◽

Study Cohort ◽

Net Benefit ◽

Characteristic Analysis ◽

Therapeutic Impact ◽

Mskcc Nomogram

Introduction: The aim of the study was to compare the performance of the 2012 Briganti and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms as a predictor for pelvic lymph node invasion (LNI) in men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) with pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND), to examine their performance and to analyse the therapeutic impact of using 7% nomogram cut-off. Materials and Methods: The study cohort consisted of 807 men with clinically localised prostate cancer (PCa) who underwent open RP with PLND between 2001 and 2019. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to quantify the accuracy of the 2012 Briganti and MSKCC nomograms to predict LNI. Calibration plots were used to visualise over or underestimation by the models and a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net benefit associated with the used nomograms. Results: A total of 97 of 807 patients had LNI (12%). The AUC of 2012 Briganti and MSKCC nomogram was 80.6 and 79.2, respectively. For the Briganti nomogram using the cut-off value of 7% would lead to reduce PLND in 47% (379/807), while missing 3.96% (15/379) cases with LNI. For the MSKCC nomogram using the cut-off value of 7% a PLND would be omitted in 44.5% (359/807), while missing 3.62% (13/359) of cases with LNI. Conclusions: Both analysed nomograms demonstrated high accuracy for prediction of LNI. Using a 7% nomogram cut-off would allow the avoidance up to 47% of PLNDs, while missing less than 4% of patients with LNI.

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Red cell distribution width as a predictor for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature infants

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-86752-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hayato Go ◽

Hitoshi Ohto ◽

Kenneth E. Nollet ◽

Kenichi Sato ◽

Hirotaka Ichikawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Blood Cell ◽

Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia ◽

Gestational Age ◽

Red Blood Cell ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Cell Distribution ◽

Characteristic Analysis ◽

Distribution Width ◽

Potential Biomarker ◽

Rbc Transfusion

AbstractBronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the most common morbidity complicating preterm birth. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a measure of the variation red blood cell size, could reflect oxidative stress and chronic inflammation in many diseases such as cardiovascular, pulmonary, and other diseases. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate perinatal factors affecting RDW and to validate whether RDW could be a potential biomarker for BPD. A total of 176 preterm infants born at < 30 weeks were included in this study. They were categorized into BPD (n = 85) and non-BPD (n = 91) infants. RDW at birth and 14 days and 28 days of life (DOL 14, DOL 28) were measured. Clinical data were obtained from all subjects at Fukushima Medical University (Fukushima, Japan). The mean RDW at birth, DOL 14 and DOL 28 were 16.1%, 18.6%, 20.1%, respectively. Small for gestational age (SGA), chorioamnionitis (CAM), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), gestational age and birth weight were significantly associated with RDW at birth. SGA, BPD and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion before DOL 14 were associated with RDW at DOL 14. BPD and RBC transfusion before DOL 14 were associated with RDW at DOL 28. Compared with non-BPD infants, mean RDW at birth DOL 14 (21.1% vs. 17.6%, P < 0.001) and DOL 28 (22.2% vs. 18.2%, P < 0.001) were significantly higher in BPD infants. Multivariate analysis revealed that RDW at DOL 28 was significantly higher in BPD infants (P = 0.001, odds ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.22–2.19). Receiver operating characteristic analysis for RDW at DOL 28 in infants with and without BPD yielded an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.78–0.91, P < 0.001). RDW at DOL 28 with mild BPD (18.3% vs. 21.2%, P < 0.001), moderate BPD (18.3% vs. 21.2%, P < 0.001), and severe BPD (18.3% vs. 23.9%, P < 0.001) were significantly higher than those with non-BPD, respectively. Furthermore, there are significant differences of RDW at DOL 28 between mild, moderate, and severe BPD. In summary, we conclude that RDW at DOL 28 could serve as a biomarker for predicting BPD and its severity. The mechanism by which RDW at DOL 28 is associated with the pathogenesis of BPD needs further elucidation.

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Identification of an optimal prolactin threshold to determine prolactinoma size using receiver operating characteristic analysis

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-89256-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Bianca M. Leca ◽

Maria Mytilinaiou ◽

Marina Tsoli ◽

Andreea Epure ◽

Simon J. B. Aylwin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽

Operating Characteristic ◽

Tumour Size ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Serum Prolactin ◽

Pituitary Neoplasms ◽

Characteristic Analysis ◽

Roc Curve Analysis ◽

Baseline Serum ◽

Receiver Operating

AbstractProlactinomas represent the most common type of secretory pituitary neoplasms, with a therapeutic management that varies considerably based on tumour size and degree of hyperprolactinemia. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between serum prolactin (PRL) concentrations and prolactinoma size, and to determine a cut-off PRL value that could differentiate micro- from macro-prolactinomas. A retrospective cohort study of 114 patients diagnosed with prolactinomas between 2007 and 2017 was conducted. All patients underwent gadolinium enhanced pituitary MRI and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed. 51.8% of patients in this study were men, with a mean age at the time of diagnosis of 42.32 ± 15.04 years. 48.2% of the total cohort were found to have microadenomas. Baseline serum PRL concentrations were strongly correlated to tumour dimension (r = 0.750, p = 0.001). When performing the ROC curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.976, indicating an excellent accuracy of the diagnostic method. For a value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L), sensitivity and specificity were calculated at 0.932 and 0.891, respectively. When a cut off value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L) was used, specificity was 93.2%, and sensitivity 89.1%, acceptable to reliably differentiate between micro- and macro- adenomas.

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