Forecasting breaks in cast iron water mains in the city of Kingston with an artificial neural network model

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 918-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Nishiyama ◽  
Yves Filion
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Water Mains ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Water Main ◽  
The City

Predictive water main break models can assist municipalities in prioritizing the replacement and rehabilitation of water mains. The aim of the paper is to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to forecast water main breaks in the water distribution network of the City of Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The ANN model includes variables of diameter, age, length, and soil type to forecast breaks. Historical break data from the 1998 to 2011 period is used to develop the ANN model and forecast pipe breaks over a 5 year planning period. The mean square error, receiver operating characteristics curves, and a confusion matrix are used to evaluate the ANN model training and testing. The trained neural network correctly classified 85% of the data set at the training, validation, and testing stages. Model forecasts showed lower pipe break rates in Kingston West, Kingston Central, and Kingston East. The reduction in break rate in the Kingston system was attributed to the removal of old pipes, and the favourable performance of pipes that are in the usage phase of their life cycle. The ANN model provided Utilities Kingston with a tool to assist them in the planning and management of their water main rehabilitation program.

scholarly journals A New Model for Predicting Rate of Penetration Using an Artificial Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salaheldin Elkatatny ◽  
Ahmed Al-AbdulJabbar ◽  
Khaled Abdelgawad
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mutual Effect ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Drilling Process ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Rate Of Penetration ◽  
Artificial Neural

The drilling rate of penetration (ROP) is defined as the speed of drilling through rock under the bit. ROP is affected by different interconnected factors, which makes it very difficult to infer the mutual effect of each individual parameter. A robust ROP is required to understand the complexity of the drilling process. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict ROP and capture the effect of the changes in the drilling parameters. Field data (4525 points) from three vertical onshore wells drilled in the same formation using the same conventional bottom hole assembly were used to train, test, and validate the ANN model. Data from Well A (1528 points) were utilized to train and test the model with a 70/30 data ratio. Data from Well B and Well C were used to test the model. An empirical equation was derived based on the weights and biases of the optimized ANN model and compared with four ROP models using the data set of Well C. The developed ANN model accurately predicted the ROP with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.94 and an average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 8.6%. The developed ANN model outperformed four existing models with the lowest AAPE and highest R value.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study on Improved Arrhenius-Type and Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict High-Temperature Flow Behaviors in 20MnNiMo Alloy

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-zheng Quan ◽  
Chun-tang Yu ◽  
Ying-ying Liu ◽  
Yu-feng Xia
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Constitutive Model ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Average Absolute Relative Error ◽  
Artificial Neural

The stress-strain data of 20MnNiMo alloy were collected from a series of hot compressions on Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulator in the temperature range of 1173∼1473 K and strain rate range of 0.01∼10 s−1. Based on the experimental data, the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model and the artificial neural network (ANN) model were established to predict the high temperature flow stress of as-cast 20MnNiMo alloy. The accuracy and reliability of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the trained ANN model were further evaluated in terms of the correlation coefficient (R), the average absolute relative error (AARE), and the relative error (η). For the former,Rand AARE were found to be 0.9954 and 5.26%, respectively, while, for the latter, 0.9997 and 1.02%, respectively. The relative errors (η) of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the ANN model were, respectively, in the range of −39.99%∼35.05% and −3.77%∼16.74%. As for the former, only 16.3% of the test data set possessesη-values within±1%, while, as for the latter, more than 79% possesses. The results indicate that the ANN model presents a higher predictable ability than the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model.

scholarly journals Modeling Baseline Energy Using Artificial Neural Network – A Small Dataset Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 662
Author(s):  
Wan Nazirah Wan Md Adnan ◽  
Nofri Yenita Dahlan ◽  
Ismail Musirin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Energy Model ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Validation Technique ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Small Dataset

In this work, baseline energy model development using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with resampling techniques; Cross Validation (CV) and Bootstrap (BS) are presented. Resampling techniques are used to examine the ability of the ANN model to deal with a small dataset. Working days, class days and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) are used as ANN input meanwhile the ANN output is monthly electricity consumption. The coefficient of correlation (R) is used as performance function to evaluate the model accuracy. For this analysis, R is calculated for the entire data set (R_all) and separately for training set (R_train), validation set (R_valid) dan testing set (R_test). The closer R to 1, the higher similarities between targeted and predicted output. The total of two different models with several number of neurons are developed and compared. It can be concluded that all models are capable to train the network. Artificial Neural Network with Bootstrap Cross Validation technique (ANN-BSCV) outperforms Artificial Neural Network with Cross Validation technique (ANN-CV).  The 3-6-1 ANN-BSCV, with R_train = 0.95668, R_valid = 0.97553, R_test = 0.85726 and R_all = 0.94079 is selected as the baseline energy model to predict energy consumption for Option C IPMVP.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network Model for Managing and Forecasting Water Reservoir Discharge (Hemren Reservoir as A Case Study)

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 132-143
Author(s):  
ABBAS M. ABD ◽  
SAAD SH. SAMMEN
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Artificial Neural

The prediction of different hydrological phenomenon (or system) plays an increasing role in the management of water resources. As engineers; it is required to predict the component of natural reservoirs’ inflow for numerous purposes. Resulting prediction techniques vary with the potential purpose, characteristics, and documented data. The best prediction method is of interest of experts to overcome the uncertainty, because the most hydrological parameters are subjected to the uncertainty. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has adopted in this paper to predict Hemren reservoir inflow. Available data including monthly discharge supplied from DerbendiKhan reservoir and rain fall intensity falling on the intermediate catchment area between Hemren-DerbendiKhan dams were used.A Back Propagation (LMBP) algorithm (Levenberg-Marquardt) has been utilized to construct the ANN models. For the developed ANN model, different networks with different numbers of neurons and layers were evaluated. A total of 24 years of historical data for interval from 1980 to 2004 were used to train and test the networks. The optimum ANN network with 3 inputs, 40 neurons in both two hidden layers and one output was selected. Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Correlation Coefficient (CC) were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model. The network was trained and converged at MSE = 0.027 by using training data subjected to early stopping approach. The network could forecast the testing data set with the accuracy of MSE = 0.031. Training and testing process showed the correlation coefficient of 0.97 and 0.77 respectively and this is refer to a high precision of that prediction technique.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Bicarbonate Amount in Drinking Water in the Region of Médéa Using Artificial Neural Network Modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 595-602
Author(s):  
Hichem Tahraoui ◽  
Abd Elmouneïm Belhadj ◽  
Adhya Eddine Hamitouche
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Artificial Neural

The region of Médéa (Algeria) located in an agricultural site requires a large amount of drinking water. For this purpose, the water analyses in question are imperative. To examine the evolution of the drinking water quality in this region, firstly, an experimental protocol was done in order to obtain a dataset by taking into account several physicochemical parameters. Secondly, the obtained data set was divided into two parts to form the artificial neural network, where 70 % of the data set was used for training, and the remaining 30 % was also divided into two equal parts: one for testing and the other for validation of the model. The intelligent model obtained was evaluated as a function of the correlation coefficient nearest to 1 and lowest mean square error (RMSE). A set of 84 data points were used in this study. Eighteen parameters in the input layer, five neurons in the hidden layer, and one parameter in the output layer were used for the ANN modelling. Levenberg Marquardt learning (LM) algorithm, logarithmic sigmoid, and linear transfer function were used, respectively, for the hidden and the output layers. The results obtained during the present study showed a correlation coefficient of <i>R</i> = 0.99276 with root mean square error RMSE = 11.52613 mg dm<sup>–3</sup>. These results show that obtained ANN model gave far better and more significant results. It is obviously more accurate since its relative error is small with a correlation coefficient close to unity. Finally, it can be concluded that obtained model can effectively predict the rate of soluble bicarbonate in drinking water in the Médéa region.

scholarly journals Estimation of the volume of distribution of some pharmacologically important compounds from their structural descriptors

2011 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 1003-1014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fatemi ◽  
Zahra Ghorbannezhad
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Van Der Waals ◽  
Volume Of Distribution ◽  
Data Matrix ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Atomic Masses ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Mlr Model

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approaches were used to estimate the volume of distribution (Vd) using an artificial neural network (ANN). The data set consisted of the volume of distribution of 129 pharmacologically important compounds, i.e., benzodiazepines, barbiturates, NSAIDs, tricyclic anti-depressants and some antibiotics, such as betalactams, tetracyclines and quinolones. The descriptors, which were selected by stepwise variable selection methods, were: the Moriguchi octanol-water partition coefficient; the 3D-MoRSEsignal 30, weighted by atomic van der Waals volumes; the fragmentbased polar surface area; the d COMMA2 value, weighted by atomic masses; the Geary autocorrelation, weighted by the atomic Sanderson electronegativities; the 3D-MoRSE - signal 02, weighted by atomic masses, and the Geary autocorrelation - lag 5, weighted by the atomic van der Waals volumes. These descriptors were used as inputs for developing multiple linear regressions (MLR) and artificial neural network models as linear and non-linear feature mapping techniques, respectively. The standard errors in the estimation of Vd by the MLR model were: 0.104, 0.103 and 0.076 and for the ANN model: 0.029, 0.087 and 0.082 for the training, internal and external validation test, respectively. The robustness of these models were also evaluated by the leave-5-out cross validation procedure, that gives the statistics Q2 = 0.72 for the MLR model and Q2 = 0.82 for the ANN model. Moreover, the results of the Y-randomization test revealed that there were no chance correlations among the data matrix. In conclusion, the results of this study indicate the applicability of the estimation of the Vd value of drugs from their structural molecular descriptors. Furthermore, the statistics of the developed models indicate the superiority of the ANN over the MLR model.

Predicting the Workability of Self-Compacting Concrete Using Artificial Neural Network

2010 ◽  
Vol 168-170 ◽  
pp. 1730-1734
Author(s):  
Fang Xian Li ◽  
Qi Jun Yu ◽  
Jiang Xiong Wei ◽  
Jian Xin Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Self Compacting Concrete ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Slump Flow ◽  
Super Plasticizer ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

An artificial neural network (ANN) is presented to predict the workability of self compacting concrete (SCC) containing slump, slump flow and V-test. A data set of a laboratory work, in which a total of 23 concretes were produced, was utilized in the ANNs study. ANN model is constructed, trained and tested using these data. The data used in the ANN model are arranged in a format of six input parameters that cover the cement, fly ash, blast furnace slag, super plasticizer, sand ratio and water/binder, three output parameters which are slump, slump flow and V-test of SCC. ANN-1, ANN-2 and ANN-3 models which containing 15 ,11 and 5 neurons in the hidden layers, respectively are found to predict workability of concrete well within the ranges of the input parameters considered. The three models are tested by comparing to the results to actual measured data. The results showed that ANN-2 is the best suitable for predicting the workability of SCC using concrete ingredients as input parameters.

scholarly journals An Artificial Neural Network approach for parametric study on Welding Defect Classification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
mei po HO ◽  
Wing-kit NGAI ◽  
Tai-wing CHAN ◽  
Hon-wah WAI
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Gas Flow ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Welding Process ◽  
Incomplete Fusion ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Welding Defect

Abstract In this paper, a welding defect prediction model has been developed and investigated through training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model. The input data were three welding process measurements (Welding current, Travel speed, and Protective gas Flow). The output data were non-destructive test results of respective weldments on four defect types (Underfill, Lack of penetration, Incomplete fusion, and Porosity) to ensure the consistency of the welding following the designed parameters, all data were obtained from 289 specimens produced by an automated MIG welding manufacturing system. The 2-stages model with 13 inputs, hidden layers with 80–100 neurons, 4 outputs. the outputs were used to evaluate the classification accuracy in the confusion matrix for the prediction of weld quality. A further 73 specimens were used to test the accuracy of the trained ANN model. The model achieved 85% accuracy.

scholarly journals Prediksi Jumlah Kunjungan Wisata Mancanegara Dengan Algoritma Backpropagation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 355
Author(s):  
Rini Sovia ◽  
Musli Yanto ◽  
Putri Melati
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Backpropagation Algorithm ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

Bukittinggi City is  known as a tourist destination that is very attractive in foreign tourist interest. Diverse types of tours are presented naturally and man-made the beauty of mountains, valleys and the beauty of the existing architectural buildings is Bukittinggi Clock Tower. Not only that, the type of culinary tourism and traditional market snacks are also an attraction for foreign tourists to travel in the city of Bukittinggi. In this study, the problem that will be discussed is the process of predicting tourist visits conducted by foreign tourists to the city of Bukittinggi. The prediction process uses the concept of artificial neural network backpropagation algorithm. The data set that will be used as a discussion is the data foreign tourist visits recorded in the Tourism Office of Bukittinggi City from 2018 to 2019. The prediction results generated with the concept of artificial neural network backpropagation algorithm produce output numbers of number of visits with an accuracy value of 95,64%  and level value the resulting error is 4,36%. The benefits generated from this research are helping the government of the city of Bukittinggi especially the Tourism Office in providing input to manage the tourism sector.

Drought frequency projection using regional climate scenarios reconstructed by seasonal artificial neural network model

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 578-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. Lee ◽  
S. J. Moon ◽  
B. S. Kang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Computational Performance ◽  
Artificial Neural

The climate change impacts on drought in the Korean peninsula were projected using Global Climate Model (GCM) output reconstructed regionally by an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The reconstructed model outputs were subsequently used as an input to project drought severity evaluated by Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The original GCM output corresponds to the CGCM3.1/T63 under the 20C3M reference scenario and the IPCC A1B, A2 and B1 projection scenarios. Because in general GCM shows limitation in capturing typhoon generation occurred at sub-grid scale, the training and validation of the ANN model utilized a precipitation data set with typhoon-generated rainfall eliminated for enhancing the ANN's computational performance. The non-stationarity characteristics of SPI was examined using the Mann–Kendall test. The projection was implemented for the near future period (2011–2040), mid-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) future periods. The results indicated mitigated drought severity under all scenarios in terms of frequency, magnitude and drought spells even for the mildest B1 scenario. The SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curves illustrate the common patterns of alleviated drought severity for most future scenarios and elongated drought duration. The reconstructed GCM projection recovers the underestimated precipitation and provided more realistic drought projection even though there would be still uncertainties of spatial and temporal variability.

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