scholarly journals Evaluating trade-offs in bull trout reintroduction strategies using structured decision making

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Brignon ◽  
James T. Peterson ◽  
Jason B. Dunham ◽  
Howard A. Schaller ◽  
Carl B. Schreck

Structured decision making allows reintroduction decisions to be made despite uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. We developed a decision model to evaluate the trade-offs between six bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) reintroduction decisions with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable level. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the decision identity and outcome were most influenced by survival parameters that result in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations, adult fecundity rates, and sex ratio. The decision was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive-reared population, the effect of naivety on released individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. The model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions.

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Falke ◽  
Rebecca L. Flitcroft ◽  
Jason B. Dunham ◽  
Kristina M. McNyset ◽  
Paul F. Hessburg ◽  
...  

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduarda Asfora Frej ◽  
Lucia Reis Peixoto Roselli ◽  
Jônatas Araújo de Almeida ◽  
Adiel Teixeira de Almeida

This article puts forward a decision model for solving a supplier selection problem in a food industry by considering multiple objectives that influence the decision-making process. In times of increasing competitiveness, companies strive hard to improve their profitability, and selection of supply sources may help if an appropriate decision is made through a well-structured decision-making process. Preference modeling is conducted in a flexible and interactive elicitation manner with the decision-maker (DM), aided by FITradeoff method. Partial information is gathered about the DM’s preferences in such a way that less effort is spent on finding a final solution for the problem.


Author(s):  
R. A. Kelly ◽  
W. S. Merritt

Coastal lakes are ecosystems which provide significant environmental, social and economic values. They are a key habitat for many aquatic species, particularly for juvenile fish and aquatic invertebrates. They are a focus for human activity, including recreation, tourism, and many forms of industry and production such as oyster and commercial fisheries. More and more the foreshore areas of lakes are seen as a desirable place to live, with urban development a key pressure on lake systems. However current development, use and management of these systems mean that these values are already under threat. Environmental managers, urban planners and other decision makers need to make complex decisions about patterns of current and future use of these systems which allow for the trade-offs associated with various activities to be effectively taken into account. Decision support systems (DSS) are seen to have a role to play in supporting these activities.When developed properly, DSS can support decision making processes by providing users with a tool that shows the relationships between drivers of a system and outcomes. Environmental outcomes (e.g. estuary health) are controlled by often complex biophysical, ecological, economic and/or social drivers and processes. In this context a DSS should address uncertainty in data, knowledge and predictions, and allow users to explore the sensitivity of outcomes to controllable drivers (e.g. management actions), uncontrollable drivers (e.g. climate variability) and uncertainty. The DSS development and adoption process also needs to be flexible to a changing decision making environment. Ultimately the success of any DSS will depend not only on its technical capacity, including the robustness of any science underlying it, or the ease of use of any interface but also on the circumstances into which it arrives: the time and money allowed for training, capacity building, incorporation of stakeholder comments and development of trust between DSS developers, scientists and the community; the way in which the DSS is embedded in the decision making process; and the ‘politics’ and constantly changing face of the decision making environment.This chapter will discuss issues regarding the development of a DSS under typical planning timeframes where there are limited resources (time and budgetary) and where current and future management issues may not be certain and/or may change over the planning timeframe. The chapter largely draws on experiences gained during the development and application of the CAPER DSS in the Great Lakes, NSW Australia.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 768-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorothee Spuhler ◽  
Christoph Lüthi

Abstract To achieve citywide inclusive sanitation in developing countries, a strategic sanitation planning approach (SSA) needs to provide a variety of technical solutions that respond to different urban realities. Despite the development of various SSA frameworks, sanitation planning still often follows a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Structured decision making (SDM) can help by balancing trade-offs among different solutions. But SDM requires a set of appropriate sanitation options to choose from. Because conventional sewer-based sanitation is often inappropriate, many novel technologies and systems have been developed (e.g. container-based sanitation). While these innovations enhance sustainability, they also increase planning complexity. In this review, we look at available frameworks and tools for SSA and discover a lack of systematic tools for the identification of planning options that are able to consider the growing portfolio of available solutions and multiple sustainability criteria. Therefore, we critically compare 15 tools from which we compile eight qualities that could help any future tool address the current sanitation challenge: it should be comprehensive, automated to deal with a large number of options, systematic, flexible towards future innovation and should consider all sustainability dimensions, make a contextualized evaluation, allow for participation, and consider uncertainties to be applicable ex-ante also for novel technologies.


Author(s):  
Neil James Mochnacz ◽  
Darryl Ian MacKenzie ◽  
Nicola Koper ◽  
Margaret F. Docker ◽  
Daniel J Isaak

Robust assessment and monitoring programs are critical for effective conservation, yet for many taxa we fail to understand how trade-offs in sampling design affect power to detect population trends and describe spatial patterns. We tested an occupancy-based sampling approach to evaluate design considerations for detecting watershed-scale population trends associated with juvenile bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) distributions. Electrofishing surveys were conducted across 275 stream sites from the Prairie Creek watershed, Northwest Territories, Canada. Site-level detectability of juvenile bull trout was not uniform, and imperfect detection affected modelled occupancy probabilities most in fringe habitats near distributional boundaries in steep reaches and large streams. We show that detecting a 30% change in watershed-level occupancy ≥78% of the time as conservation guidelines suggest, may require three repeat surveys (i.e., temporal replicates) and increased spatial sampling intensity of fringe habitats. Additional sampling effort in fringe sites could be offset by sampling fewer sites in core habitats to optimize designs for detecting demographic shifts in bull trout, while still minimizing risk of non-detection for this cryptic species.


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Gazzard ◽  
Terry Walshe ◽  
Peter Galvin ◽  
Owen Salkin ◽  
Michael Baker ◽  
...  

The Otway Ranges contain many of the highest-wildfire-risk communities in Victoria, Australia. One of the chief risk mitigation measures in the Otway Ranges is planned burning. The location and amount of planned burning that is undertaken need to consider stakeholder perspectives that can be largely divergent, invoking difficult trade-offs for land-management agencies. The structured decision-making framework was utilised to select the most ‘appropriate’ 40-year cross-tenure fuel management strategy for the Otway Ranges. This paper details the approach undertaken to develop an optimised set of multi-objective fuel management strategies, identify suitable monetary and non-monetary objectives and calculate risk-weighted consequences using a range of modelling techniques. To underpin clarity in trade-offs and decision making, we emphasise the use of natural measures of performance for each candidate strategy against each objective, such as lives lost, species decline and economic losses associated with wildfire. This paper also highlights the role of stakeholder engagement throughout the decision-making process. We discuss the results of the formal trade-off process that was completed using an additive multi-objective value model to identify a preferred fuel management strategy for the Otway Ranges. The preferred strategy is currently used by local management agencies to guide operational planning and delivery.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna R. Renwick ◽  
Alienor L.M. Chauvenet ◽  
Hugh P. Possingham ◽  
Vanessa M. Adams ◽  
Jennifer McGowan ◽  
...  

AbstractDesigning landscapes to accommodate both humans and nature poses huge challenges, but is increasingly recognised as an essential component of conservation and land management. The land-sparing land-sharing framework has been proposed as a tool to address this challenge. However, it has been largely criticised for its simplicity. We provide a new conceptual framework amenable to the application of structured decision-making that moves beyond the dichotomy of land-sparing or land-sharing. Using this new framework, we present a general system model that can be used to make land management decisions for the conservation of species, ecosystem services and production land at different spatial scales. The model can be parameterised for specific systems using information about: the current state of the landscape, the rates of change between landscape states, and the cost and effectiveness of taking actions. To demonstrate the utility of the model we apply it to three different landscape types. Across our three case studies, we show that investment into one of three management actions (varying degrees of management and restoration) can move the system towards more biodiversity or more managed land depending on the objectives of the land manager. We show that the dynamic and flexible nature of the landscape is important to take into account rather than a static snapshot in time. Rather than focusing on establishing the perfect landscape with a set proportion dedicated to production and to biodiversity conservation, we argue that a more useful approach is to establish incremental movements towards a landscape that meets the goals of multiple objectives. Our framework can be used to illustrate to decision makers the costs and trade-offs of different actions and help them determine land management policy.


2019 ◽  
pp. 125-133
Author(s):  
Duong Truong Thi Thuy ◽  
Anh Pham Thi Hoang

Banking has always played an important role in the economy because of its effects on individuals as well as on the economy. In the process of renovation and modernization of the country, the system of commercial banks has changed dramatically. Business models and services have become more diversified. Therefore, the performance of commercial banks is always attracting the attention of managers, supervisors, banks and customers. Bank ranking can be viewed as a multi-criteria decision model. This article uses the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method to rank some commercial banks in Vietnam.


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