Prospects for the Use of Mobile Operator Data in Studies of Natural and Man-Made Risk

The article proposes a conceptual substantiation of the possibility of using the cellular operators data in order to assess the population vulnerability in the natural risk studies. Cellular operators data allow obtaining information on the differentiation of the population vulnerability in a large city (the article provides the case of Moscow) to natural and manmade hazards, taking into account the actual population size and its movement within different time cycles (daily, weekly, seasonal). A reliable information of how many people are at each point of the urban space at a certain point in time will allow not only to timely assess the most likely number of people in the potential danger area, thereby simplifying the work of specialized emergencies services, but also to competently develop a set of preventive measures in accordance with the real need.

Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Rescuing Immunosenescence via Non-Specific Vaccination

Discrepancies in lifespan and healthy-life span are predisposing populations to an increasing burden of age-related disease. Accumulating evidence implicates aging of the immune system, termed immunosenescence, in the pathogenesis of multiple age-related diseases. Moreover, immune dysregulation in the elderly increases vulnerability to infection and dampens pathogen-specific immune responses following vaccination. The health challenges manifesting from these age related deficits have been dramatically exemplified by the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Approaches to either attenuate or reverse functional markers of immunosenescence are therefore urgently needed. Recent evidence suggests systemic immunomodulation via non-specific vaccination with live-attenuated vaccines may be a promising avenue to at least reduce aged population vulnerability to viral infection. This short review describes current understanding of immunosenescence, the historical and mechanistic basis of vaccine-mediated immunomodulation, and the outstanding questions and challenges required for broad adoption.

Facilitating Multifunctional Green Infrastructure Planning in Washington, DC through a Tableau Interface

Multifunctional urban green infrastructure (UGI) can regulate stormwater, mitigate heat islands, conserve biodiversity and biocultural diversity, and produce food, among other functions. Equitable governance of UGI requires new tools for sharing pertinent information. Our goal was to develop a public-access geographic information system (GIS) that can be used for comprehensive UGI planning in Washington, DC (the District) and to create an e-tool for UGI in the form of Tableau dashboards. The dashboards allow stakeholders to identify (1) existing UGI and (2) potential areas for new UGI including urban agriculture (UA). They also allow users to manipulate the data and identify priority locations for equitable UGI development by applying population vulnerability indices and other filters. We demonstrate use of the dashboards through scenarios focusing on UA in the District, which currently has 150 ha of existing UGI in the form of documented projects and an additional 3012 ha potentially suitable for UGI development. A total of 2792 ha is potentially suitable for UA, with 58% of that area in Wards 5, 7, and 8, which are largely food deserts and whose residents are primarily Black and experience the greatest inequities. Our work can serve as a model for similar digital tools in other locales using Tableau and other platforms.

The Risk of the Population in a Changing Climate over the Tibetan Plateau, China: Integrating Hazard, Population Exposure and Vulnerability

As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been warming significantly, and the instability of extreme events related to climate and weather has enhanced exceptionally in recent decades. These changes have posed increasingly severe impacts on the population over the TP. So far, however, the impacts on the population have not been assessed systematically and comprehensively from the perspective of risk. In this paper, the hazard of climate change was assessed from a fresh look, not only considering extreme changes of air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, but also their changes in mean and fluctuation, using daily meteorological data from 1961–2015. The population exposure and vulnerability to climate change were then evaluated using demographic data and considering population scale and structure. Finally, the population risk over the TP to climate change was quantitatively assessed within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results showed that the climate change hazard was mainly at medium and heavy levels, in areas accounting for 64.60% of the total. The population exposure was relatively low; the land area at slight and light levels accounted for 83.94%, but high in the eastern edge area of the TP. The population vulnerability was mostly at medium and heavy levels, and the non-agricultural population rate was the key factor affecting the population vulnerability. Generally, the overall population risk over the TP was not very high: the number of counties with heavy and very heavy risk only accounted for 24.29%, and land area was less than 5%. However, more than 40% of the population was in high-risk areas, located in the eastern edge area of the TP. Population exposure was the decisive factor of the population risk to climate change, and high population exposure might lead to high risk. These findings were potentially valuable to improve cognition of risk, develop proactive risk mitigation strategies, and ensure sustainable development.

Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation and Resilience in Urban Areas

Urban areas face several environmental problems and risks related to water management, such as floods and degradation of water quality, enhancing population vulnerability and threatening urban sustainability. These problems are expected to be exacerbated with increasing urbanization and climate change, which leads to higher frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological extremes. Moving towards more flood resilient cities has proven a major challenge, particularly considering the high concentration of population and economic activities and, thus, high pressure on limited available space. Nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban areas favour stormwater retention, infiltration, and filtration, contributing to flood mitigation and enhancement of water quality. The effectiveness of different NBS on stormwater management, however, is influenced by design and placement aspects, but a network of connected NBS elements can improve flood mitigation and enhance urban resilience. Stronger evidence of the advantages of NBS, however, is still required to overcome the current challenges and barriers impairing their wider implementation in urban areas.