The competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber: a disaggregated trade-flow analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1494-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Yew Chang ◽  
Chris Gaston
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Grade ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Dimension Lumber

A recursive dynamic spatial equilibrium model is used to examine the global competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber. To address the restrictive assumption of softwood lumber homogeneity, this study disaggregates softwood lumber into two product groups: (i) higher grade lumber that includes appearance, select structural-grade lumber, and Japanese J-grade lumber; and (ii) lower grade lumber that includes the United States dimension lumber that is commonly used in construction and utility- and economy-grade lumber. Factors that may affect global softwood lumber markets are simulated in the model to project global softwood lumber trade flows from 2012 to 2021. The results indicate that the reduced lumber supply in western Canada caused by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation combined with demand increases in several regions of the world will contribute to a global increase in softwood lumber prices. Our results suggest that the global price increase will be greater for lower grade softwood lumber than for higher grade lumber. The United States and China will continue to be the top two markets for lower grade Canadian softwood lumber. Although Canadian exports of lower grade softwood lumber to the United States are expected to increase marginally over time in response to the recovery of American housing starts, softwood lumber exports to China are expected to drop significantly, and it is forecasted that exports from the Russian Federation will fill that void. These findings provide strong market signals for both forest managers and the forest-products industry to assess supply chain profitability and adjust production planning accordingly.

International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Background Theory ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.

scholarly journals Introduction ofEucalyptusspp. into the United States with Special Emphasis on the Southern United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Kellison ◽  
Russ Lea ◽  
Paul Marsh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gold Rush ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Species Introduction ◽  
Fuel Wood ◽  
Fiber Production ◽  
North Carolina State University ◽  
Subsequent Performance

Introduction ofEucalyptusspp. into the United States from Australia on a significant scale resulted from the gold rush into California in 1849. Numerous species were evaluated for fuel, wood products, and amenity purposes. The first recorded entry of eucalyptus into the southern United Stated was in 1878. Subsequent performance of selected species for ornamental purposes caused forest industry to visualize plantations for fiber production. That interest led the Florida Forestry Foundation to initiate species-introduction trials in 1959. The results were sufficiently promising that a contingent of forest products companies formed a cooperative to work with the USDA Forest Service, Lehigh Acres, FL, USA, on genetic improvement of selected species for fiber production. The Florida initiative caused other industrial forestry companies in the upper South to establish plantations regardless of the species or seed source. The result was invariably the same: failure. Bruce Zobel, Professor of Forestry, North Carolina State University, initiated a concerted effort to assess the potential worth of eucalyptus for plantation use. The joint industrial effort evaluated 569 sources representing 103 species over a 14-year period. The three levels of testing, screening, in-depth, and semioperational trials led to identification of some species and sources that offered promise for adaptation, but severe winter temperatures in late 1983 and early 1984 and 1985 terminated the project. Despite the failed attempt valuable silvicultural practices were ascertained that will be beneficial to other researchers and practitioners when attempts are again made to introduce the species complex into the US South.

Modeling bilateral forest products trade.

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-82
Author(s):  
Craig M. T. Johnston ◽  
Brad Stennes ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Programming Models ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Price Equilibrium ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Spatial Price

Abstract The focus in this chapter is on the development of mathematical programming models used to model bilateral forest products trade. Theoretical outlines are provided of a multi-region, single product trade model and of an integrated, multi-region, multi-product trade model. The objective function and constraints are described mathematically, while the analysis takes into account horizontal and vertical chains and the need to calibrate the model using observed trade flows. Data sources are discussed, and the GAMS code is provided for the uncalibrated and calibrated versions of the model. The Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute is the raison d'être for much applied work in modeling forest products trade, especially on Canada's side. In this chapter, we examine several spatial price equilibrium (SPE) trade models that are currently used to investigate the implications of trade barriers imposed on Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the United States. The reason we consider bilateral trade is so that we can determine the impacts of trade restrictions on various regions in North America. We begin in the next section by specifying a general but vertically integrated SPE trade model.

scholarly journals Long-Term Timber Contracts in the Southeastern United States: Updating the Primer Valuation Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-665
Author(s):  
Hector I Restrepo ◽  
Bin Mei ◽  
Bronson P Bullock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Material Supply

Abstract Timberland ownership has drastically changed in the United States since the 1980s, driven by the divestitures of vertically integrated forest products companies. Having sold their timberland, forest products companies have exposed themselves more to the risk of raw material supply. To hedge against this risk, forest products companies usually use long-term timber contracts (LTTC). The objective of this article is to update the valuation framework for LTTCs proposed by Shaffer (1984) by including alternative option price models and refining the estimates of some key economic variables. In particular, conditional volatility from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and quasi-conditional volatility from rolling estimation windows, in addition to simple standard deviation, are used for the volatility estimates in the option pricing models. Contrary to the previous result by Shaffer (1984), our analysis suggests that LTTCs that were once profitable for forest products companies in the 1980s are no longer so under current market conditions. This is primarily because both timber price volatility and the risk-free interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, to be better off, forest products companies need to either lower the administration and management costs of those LTTCs or rely more on the open market for timber procurement. Study Implications: Forest products companies have traditionally relied on long-term timber contracts (LTTC) negotiated with forest landowners to mitigate the risk of raw material supply. The value of these LTTCs highly depends on the economic context. This research provides some insights into the valuation of LTTCs in the southeastern United States. Forest products companies can use this updated framework to aid their decisionmaking in timber procurement.

scholarly journals Back to the Source: Lionfish Imported into the United States via the Ornamental Aquarium Trade

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha D. Farquhar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Aquarium Trade ◽  
Pterois Volitans ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Pterois Miles ◽  
Native Populations

Lionfish (Pterois miles and Pterois volitans) are known for their invasive success in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. With few marine fish invasions of similar magnitude being documented, the introduction of lionfish in this area has been deemed one of the fastest and most ecologically harmful introductions to date. Furthermore, this invasion is thought to be caused by negligent aquarists who released ornamental lionfish off the coast of Florida in 1985. Interestingly, lionfish are rare in abundance throughout their native waters of the Indo-Pacific and factors controlling lionfish’s native populations are little studied and not clearly defined. Through the analysis of the Marine Aquarium Biodiversity and Trade Flow database for the years 2008, 2009, and 2011, it was determined that approximately 137,723 lionfish were exported to the United States with Los Angeles, CA being the most popular point of entry. Of this total, 45.5% originated from the Philippines, 27.7% from Indonesia, and 14.5% from Kenya. Pterois volitans was exported from 15 different countries and on average 19 times more than Pterois miles which was exported only from three countries. This paper questions: 1) if the ornamental aquarium trade is affecting lionfish’s native populations and 2) if the lionfish imports could be leading to more introductions in non-native waters. Ultimately, this paper acts as a short communication identifying a need for further research and attention towards this 

scholarly journals The United States’ Clothing Imports from Asian Countries along the Belt and Road: An Extended Gravity Trade Model with Application of Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7433
Author(s):  
Danny Chi Kuen Ho ◽  
Eve Man Hin Chan ◽  
Tsz Leung Yip ◽  
Chi-Wing Tsang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
United States ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extended Gravity ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Belt And Road

In 2013, China announced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to promote the connectivity of Asia, Europe, and Africa and deepen mutually beneficial economic cooperation among member countries. Past studies have reported a positive impact of the BRI on trade between China and its partner countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). However, less is known about its effect on the sectoral trade between the B&R countries and countries that show little support of the BRI. To address that gap, this study examines the changing patterns of clothing imports by the United States (US) from China and 14 B&R countries in Asia. An extended gravity model with a policy variable BRI is built to explain bilateral clothing trade flow. A panel regression model and artificial neural network (ANN) are developed based on the data collected from 1998 to 2018 and applied to predict the trade pattern of 2019. The results show a positive effect of the BRI on the clothing exports of some Asian developing countries along the B&R to the US and demonstrate the superior predictive power of the ANN. More research is needed to examine the balance between economic growth and the social and environmental sustainability of developing countries and to apply more advanced machine learning algorithms to examine global trade flow under the BRI.

scholarly journals Forestland Parcelization in Upstate New York Despite Economic Stagnation and a Declining Population

2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 280-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
René H. Germain ◽  
Kevin Brazill ◽  
Stephen V. Stehman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
New York State ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Upstate New York ◽  
Central New York ◽  
Parcel Size

Abstract Nonindustrial private forestlands (NIPFs) account for a majority of the forested working landscape in the eastern United States. Throughout the United States, NIPF average ownership sizes continue to decline. Smaller parcel sizes create declining economies of scale for forest managersand timber harvesters, threatening the viability of the forested working landscape and, in turn, wood supply. This study documents the parcelization of NIPF holdings in a central New York State county during the last 25 years of the 20th century. The findings indicate the average parcel sizeof NIPFs decreased from 36 to 24 ac over the study period, despite a decline in population in the county. Although average parcel size is declining, a large percentage of the rural forestland remains in acreage classes suitable for forest management, as long as the forest products industrycan adapt to changes on the landscape. North. J. Appl. For. 23(4):280–287.

scholarly journals Sustainable Forest Management for Nontimber Products

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2670 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Chamberlain ◽  
Christine Small ◽  
Michelle Baumflek
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nontimber Forest Products ◽  
Medicinal Species

Many of the plants and fungi that are harvested for nontimber products (e.g., foods, medicines, crafts) are critical to healthy forest ecosystems. These products also are essential to rural societies, contributing to the material and nonmaterial composition of communities and cultures. Product sales make important contributions at all economic scales, from household to national economies. Nontimber forest products (NTFPs) have been harvested for generations, sometimes centuries, yet they are seldom integrated into forest management. Few methods exist for inventory and assessment, and there is little evidence that harvests are sustainable. This article examines three elements of sustainable forest management for nontimber products: sociocultural, economic, and ecological, and elaborates with detailed examples of edible and medicinal species from United States (U.S.) forests. We synthesize the state of knowledge and emerging issues, and identify research priorities that are needed to advance sustainable management of NTFPs in the United States. Despite their social, economic, and ecological values, many of these species and resources are threatened by the overuse and lack of management and market integration. Sustainable management for nontimber products is attainable, but much research and development is needed to ensure the long-term sustainability of these resources and their cultural values, and to realize their economic potentials.

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