Modeling bilateral forest products trade.

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-82
Author(s):  
Craig M. T. Johnston ◽  
Brad Stennes ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Programming Models ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Price Equilibrium ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Spatial Price

Abstract The focus in this chapter is on the development of mathematical programming models used to model bilateral forest products trade. Theoretical outlines are provided of a multi-region, single product trade model and of an integrated, multi-region, multi-product trade model. The objective function and constraints are described mathematically, while the analysis takes into account horizontal and vertical chains and the need to calibrate the model using observed trade flows. Data sources are discussed, and the GAMS code is provided for the uncalibrated and calibrated versions of the model. The Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute is the raison d'être for much applied work in modeling forest products trade, especially on Canada's side. In this chapter, we examine several spatial price equilibrium (SPE) trade models that are currently used to investigate the implications of trade barriers imposed on Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the United States. The reason we consider bilateral trade is so that we can determine the impacts of trade restrictions on various regions in North America. We begin in the next section by specifying a general but vertically integrated SPE trade model.

Modeling bilateral forest products trade.

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-82
Author(s):  
Craig M. T. Johnston ◽  
Brad Stennes ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Programming Models ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Price Equilibrium ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Spatial Price

Abstract The focus in this chapter is on the development of mathematical programming models used to model bilateral forest products trade. Theoretical outlines are provided of a multi-region, single product trade model and of an integrated, multi-region, multi-product trade model. The objective function and constraints are described mathematically, while the analysis takes into account horizontal and vertical chains and the need to calibrate the model using observed trade flows. Data sources are discussed, and the GAMS code is provided for the uncalibrated and calibrated versions of the model. The Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute is the raison d'être for much applied work in modeling forest products trade, especially on Canada's side. In this chapter, we examine several spatial price equilibrium (SPE) trade models that are currently used to investigate the implications of trade barriers imposed on Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the United States. The reason we consider bilateral trade is so that we can determine the impacts of trade restrictions on various regions in North America. We begin in the next section by specifying a general but vertically integrated SPE trade model.

Softwood lumber trade and trade restrictions: gravity model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 142-173
Author(s):  
Xin-tong Li ◽  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Trade Model

Abstract A gravity trade model can be used to determine the effects of policy on bilateral trade flows. The gravity model is initially explained and then used to determine the effect that U.S. tariffs have on softwood lumber (SWL) imports from Canada, using information from the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement. Quarterly data for seven Canadian and three U.S. regions for the period 2007-2017 are used to estimate a gravity model of SWL trade. The model is subsequently expanded to include Japan and China as separate regions, and then as a combined China-Japan region. The model is estimated using OLS and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method for trade quantity and value. Findings indicate that: (1) the imposition of a countervailing and/or anti-dumping duty usually has a negative effect on Canada's physical exports, but not in all cases; (2) the value of softwood lumber trade decreases by 26% on average under a tax/tariff compared with no duties; (3) the tax/tariff has a smaller but still significant impact on Canadian exports when China and Japan are included, as SWL exports are diverted from the U.S.; and, not surprisingly, (4) duties affect the value of lumber exports to a much greater extent than quantity.

scholarly journals Canadian Interests in Forest Products Trade

1986 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-316
Author(s):  
James Kelleher
Keyword(s):  
Market Access ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
International Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Forest Industries ◽  
Market Opportunities ◽  
Processed Products ◽  
National Trade

The international market environment for forest products has become more competitive. This has resulted from slower growth in demand and increased capacity of producers in importing countries to meet domestic requirements. Exports have also increased from new producing countries. These problems coupled with the much slower recovery of overseas markets have led to conditions of oversupply. Against this background protectionist pressures have grown, particularly against our softwood lumber exports to the United States. It will therefore be important to secure market access for our forest products and reduce remaining trade barriers to allow competitive adjustment of our forest industries. Marketing initiatives will also be required to realize new market opportunities and facilitate increased exports of further processed products. The National Trade Strategy will be a key vehicle in promoting our trade objectives in the sector.

scholarly journals Is There an End to U.S.–Canadian Softwood Lumber Disputes?

2006 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Devadoss
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spatial Equilibrium ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Myopic Policies ◽  
The U.S

I develop a two-country theoretical trade model to show that Canadian subsidies increase lumber supplies and exports to the United States, and the U.S. retaliatory tariff raises U.S. prices and safeguards producers, but hurts consumers. These results underscore the shortsightedness of policy decisions in a bilateral trade dispute, as empirical results from the multiregional spatial equilibrium trade model highlight that both countries pursue myopic policies without taking into account the reactions of other exporters and importers. For instance, after the imposition of U.S. tariffs, other exporters grab the market share lost by Canada in the United States, while Canada augments its exports to other importers.

Softwood lumber trade and trade restrictions: gravity model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 142-173
Author(s):  
Xin-tong Li ◽  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Trade Model

Abstract A gravity trade model can be used to determine the effects of policy on bilateral trade flows. The gravity model is initially explained and then used to determine the effect that U.S. tariffs have on softwood lumber (SWL) imports from Canada, using information from the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement. Quarterly data for seven Canadian and three U.S. regions for the period 2007-2017 are used to estimate a gravity model of SWL trade. The model is subsequently expanded to include Japan and China as separate regions, and then as a combined China-Japan region. The model is estimated using OLS and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method for trade quantity and value. Findings indicate that: (1) the imposition of a countervailing and/or anti-dumping duty usually has a negative effect on Canada's physical exports, but not in all cases; (2) the value of softwood lumber trade decreases by 26% on average under a tax/tariff compared with no duties; (3) the tax/tariff has a smaller but still significant impact on Canadian exports when China and Japan are included, as SWL exports are diverted from the U.S.; and, not surprisingly, (4) duties affect the value of lumber exports to a much greater extent than quantity.

International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Background Theory ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.

Why NTM is a Challenge in Trade Relations? Evidence from India–Africa Agricultural Trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar ◽  
Nalin Bharti
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Coverage Ratio ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Trading Partners

India and Africa have experienced the rapid expansion of bilateral trade during the last two decades. The India–Africa trade is understudied in general and in the agriculture sector. Very few considerable efforts have been made to study the agro-trade restrictions between both the economies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to empirically identify the recent evidence of non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed on the agro-products between India and Africa, which also work as non-tariff barriers. It is perceived that India being one of the frequent users of NTMs in the world poses many challenges for its trading partners. Based on the Revealed Trade Barrier (RTB) index, using 28 agro-products (HS-4 digit level), this paper assesses bilateral agro-trade barriers. The frequency index ( Fi) and coverage ratio ( Cr) were used to analyse the complex nature of NTMs. The study findings show that both trading partners imposed a wide range of NTMs on each other’s agro-products, which resulted in the discriminatory effects on trade. Comparatively, India has imposed the lesser number of NTMs on Africa’s agro-products. Despite the recent bilateral trade agreements between both the economies, trade barriers were frequently noticed. The paper suggests applying strategic trade policies and reduction of NTMs along with harmonisation of standards to flourish the bilateral agro-trade.

Spatial price equilibrium trade modelling: theory.

2021 ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
G. Cornelis van Kooten ◽  
Craig M. T. Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Price Equilibrium ◽  
Spatial Price Equilibrium ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Spatial Price

Abstract The theory of measuring economic welfare across horizontal and vertical chains is provided in this chapter. As demonstrated, it underlies the spatial price equilibrium (SPE) trade models. The vertical and horizontal chains involved in a particular trade model, referred to as the REPA model, are described as an illustration.

Mountain pine beetle, global markets, and the British Columbia forest economy

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 1313-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brant Abbott ◽  
Brad Stennes ◽  
G. Cornelis van Kooten
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Near Term

A number of near-term timber supply shocks are projected to impact global forest product markets, particularly mountain pine beetle induced timber reductions, a Russian log export tax, and timber supply increases from plantation forests in the Southern Hemisphere and Sweden. We examined their effect on a number of global jurisdictions using a dynamic global forest products trade model that separates British Columbia (BC) into coastal and interior forest sectors. The results suggest that global increases in plantation timber would have negligible effects on BC log and lumber markets, that the Russian tax would have minor effects on this market, and that the beetle-induced timber supply drop would moderately increase BC prices (primarily log prices). In the United States South, lumber and log prices could rise as a result of the mountain pine beetle, while other shocks will have a negligible impact on prices. Yet, lumber production will fall because log prices will increase substantially more than lumber prices. Japan could be impacted much more than other regions by the Russian tax on log exports. In the absence of export taxes, a beetle-induced timber shortage would cause lumber production in Japan to rise (as Japan can access nearby Russian logs), while the export tax would reduce lumber production because log prices rise disproportionately more than in other regions.

The competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber: a disaggregated trade-flow analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1494-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Yew Chang ◽  
Chris Gaston
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Grade ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Dimension Lumber

A recursive dynamic spatial equilibrium model is used to examine the global competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber. To address the restrictive assumption of softwood lumber homogeneity, this study disaggregates softwood lumber into two product groups: (i) higher grade lumber that includes appearance, select structural-grade lumber, and Japanese J-grade lumber; and (ii) lower grade lumber that includes the United States dimension lumber that is commonly used in construction and utility- and economy-grade lumber. Factors that may affect global softwood lumber markets are simulated in the model to project global softwood lumber trade flows from 2012 to 2021. The results indicate that the reduced lumber supply in western Canada caused by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation combined with demand increases in several regions of the world will contribute to a global increase in softwood lumber prices. Our results suggest that the global price increase will be greater for lower grade softwood lumber than for higher grade lumber. The United States and China will continue to be the top two markets for lower grade Canadian softwood lumber. Although Canadian exports of lower grade softwood lumber to the United States are expected to increase marginally over time in response to the recovery of American housing starts, softwood lumber exports to China are expected to drop significantly, and it is forecasted that exports from the Russian Federation will fill that void. These findings provide strong market signals for both forest managers and the forest-products industry to assess supply chain profitability and adjust production planning accordingly.

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