Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 920-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian J. Das ◽  
Nathan L. Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Tree Survival

Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

Implementation constraints limit benefits of restoration treatments in mixed-conifer forests

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie M. Lydersen ◽  
Brandon M. Collins ◽  
Carolyn T. Hunsaker
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Forest Structure ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Conifer Forest ◽  
Mixed Conifer ◽  
Trade Offs

Forest restoration treatments seek to increase resilience to wildfire and a changing climate while avoiding negative impacts to the ecosystem. The extent and intensity of treatments are often constrained by operational considerations and concerns over uncertainty in the trade-offs of addressing different management goals. The recent (2012–15) extreme drought in California, USA, resulted in widespread tree mortality, particularly in the southern Sierra Nevada, and provided an opportunity to assess the effects of restoration treatments on forest resilience to drought. We assessed changes in mixed-conifer forest structure following thinning and understorey burning at the Kings River Experimental Watersheds in the southern Sierra Nevada, and how treatments, topography and forest structure related to tree mortality in the recent drought. Treatments had negligible effect on basal area, tree density and canopy cover. Following the recent drought, average basal area mortality within the watersheds ranged from 5 to 26% across riparian areas and 12 to 44% across upland areas, with a range of 0 to 95% across all plots. Tree mortality was not significantly influenced by restoration treatments or topography. Our results suggest that the constraints common to many restoration treatments may limit their ability to mitigate the impacts of severe drought.

Stand, species, and tree dynamics of an uneven-aged, mixed conifer forest type

1995 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 803-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. McTague ◽  
William F. Stansfield
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Conifer Forest ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Recovery Method ◽  
Parameter Recovery ◽  
Tree Survival

Stand-level equations are presented that project future merchantable tree survival, pole-tree basal area, and sawtimber basal area. Total basal area (excluding ingrowth) is the sum of the pole-tree and sawtimber components. Ratio equations are used for eight species (seven softwoods and one hardwood) to compute the change in species abundance and species basal area over time. Individual-tree mortality is predicted with a logistic function, while individual-tree diameter growth is predicted as a function of stand and individual-tree attributes. The individual-tree and species-level equations are adjusted so that tree frequency and basal area are consistent with the stand-level projection equations. Total ingrowth is computed with a stand-level projection equation and is distributed with a parameter recovery method using the uniform distribution. The presence or absence of ingrowth for a given species is determined with a discriminant function, while the proportion of total ingrowth allocated to a species is predicted with a logistic function.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Roberto Sette Jr ◽  
Mario Tomazello F ◽  
José Luis Lousada ◽  
Domingos Lopes ◽  
Jean Paul Laclau
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Wood Density ◽  
Eucalyptus Grandis ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Cambial Activity ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Trunk Diameter

ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

scholarly journals Drought Impacts and Compounding Mortality on Forest Trees in the Southern Sierra Nevada

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Pile ◽  
Marc Meyer ◽  
Ramiro Rojas ◽  
Olivia Roe ◽  
Mark Smith
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Abies Concolor ◽  
Forest Trees ◽  
Insect Outbreaks ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Forest Stand Structure ◽  
Tree Survival ◽  
Pine Species

The increase in compounding disturbances, such as “hotter droughts” coupled with insect outbreaks, has significant impacts on the integrity of forested ecosystems and their subsequent management for important ecosystem services and multiple-use objectives. In the Southern Sierra Nevada, years of severe drought have resulted in unprecedented tree mortality across this mountainous landscape. Additionally, past land management practices, including fire suppression, have led to overly stocked, homogenous forest stand structures, dominated by small diameter, shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant tree species. Thus, the current condition of the landscape has further increased the susceptibility of forest trees to multiple stressors. We sought to determine the effects of extreme drought and insect outbreaks on tree mortality and their influence on forest stand structure and composition. To characterize mortality patterns, we monitored the condition of mature forest trees (>25.4 cm diameter at breast height) across 255 monitoring plots with four repeated measurements from 2015 through 2017. Tree mortality varied by species and through time. Reductions in pine species (Pinus lambertiana Douglas and P. ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson) occurred earlier in the study period than Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hildebr. or Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin. Across species, larger tree size, most often associated with tree height, was consistently related to increased survival in mature, overstory trees. As expected, sites with greater pine stocking and subsequently more bark beetle (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) host availability had increased pine mortality, especially for P. ponderosa. For Abies concolor, lower overstory basal area increased tree survival for this species. This study highlights the importance of effective forest monitoring, especially during a period of unprecedented ecological change as the compounding disturbance had a disproportional effect on pine species in smaller diameter classes. Proactive forest management may be necessary to maintain and promote these ecologically important species in heterogeneous mixtures across the landscape.

Modeling Tree Mortality Following Wildfire in Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Central Sierra-Nevada of California

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
JC Regelbrugge ◽  
SG Conard
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Stem Bark ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Bark Char

We modeled tree mortality occurring two years following wildfire in Pinus ponderosa forests using data from 1275 trees in 25 stands burned during the 1987 Stanislaus Complex fires. We used logistic regression analysis to develop models relating the probability of wildfire-induced mortality with tree size and fire severity for Pinus ponderosa, Calocedrus decurrens, Quercus chrysolepis, and Q. kelloggii. One set of models predicts mortality probability as a function of DBH and height of stem-bark char, a second set of models uses relative char height (height of stem-bark char as a proportion of tree height) as the predictor. Probability of mortality increased with increasing height of stem-bark char and decreased with increasing tree DBH and height. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicated that both sets of models perform well for all species, with 83 to 96 percent concordance between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. The models can be used to predict die probability of post-wildfire mortality of four tree species common in Pinus ponderosa forests in the central Sierra Nevada of California.

scholarly journals Precommercial Thinning in a Ponderosa Pine Stand Affected by Armillaria Root Disease in Central Oregon: 30 Years of Growth and Mortality

1999 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 144-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Filip ◽  
Stephen A. Fitzgerald ◽  
Lisa M. Ganio
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Root Disease ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Precommercial Thinning ◽  
Tree Diameter ◽  
Armillaria Root Disease

Abstract A 30-yr-old stand of ponderosa pine was precommercially thinned in 1966 to determine the effects of thinning on tree growth and mortality caused by Armillaria root disease in central Oregon. After 30 yr, crop tree mortality was significantly (P = 0.02) less in thinned plots than in unthinned plots. Tree diameter growth was not significantly (P = 0.17) increased by thinning. Crop-tree basal area/ac growth was significantly (P = 0.03) greater in thinned plots. Apparently, from a root disease perspective, precommercial thinning of pure ponderosa stands significantly decreases the incidence of crop-tree mortality after 30 yr and significantly increases basal area/ac growth but not individual tree diameter growth. Recommendations for thinning based on stand density index (SDI) are given. West. J. Appl. For. 14(3):144-148.

Growth basal area: a field method for appraising forest site potential for stockability

1983 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick C. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Site Index ◽  
Field Method ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Forest Site ◽  
A Site

Growth basal area (GBA) is a field method for determining site potential limitations on stockability. It is defined as the basal area (BA) at which dominant trees grow 1 in. (25 mm) diameter per decade at age 100. Diameter growth is a constant used to compare sites; basal area is a variable used to express different site potentials for stockability. For example, a site with GBA = 220 ft2/acre (50 m2/ha) means dominants will grow 1 in. per decade (25 mm) in diameter at 220 ft2 BA. This is twice the stockability potential of a site with GBA = 110 ft2 (25 m2/ha). GBA is determined by relating current stand diameter growth rate and BA to a curve which permits adjustment of current BA to that for 1 in. per decade diameter growth. GBA is based on two assumptions: (i) rate of diameter growth decreases with increasing basal area and is an index of intertree competition. (ii) Change in GBA with age is related to stand age. GBA can be combined with site index (SI), shown as SI-GBA, to connote different productivities within an SI class. GBA is discussed in regard to concept of GBA curve development, assumptions made, applications, and constraints.

Evaluation of distance-independent competition indices in predicting tree survival and diameter growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 440-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuaichao Sun ◽  
Quang V. Cao ◽  
Tianjian Cao
Keyword(s):  
Loblolly Pine ◽  
Relative Position ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Diameter Ratio ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Permanent Plots ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Tree Survival ◽  
Competition Indices

Competition indices play a significant role in modeling individual-tree growth and survival. In this study, six distance-independent competition indices were evaluated using 200 permanent plots of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). The competition indices were classified into three families: (1) size ratios, which include diameter ratio and basal area ratio; (2) relative position indices, which include basal area of larger trees (BAL) and tree relative position based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF); and (3) partitioned stand density index and relative density. Results indicated that different families of competition indices were suitable for different tree survival or diameter growth prediction tasks. The diameter ratio was superior for predicting tree survival, whereas the relative position indices (BAL and CDF) performed best for predicting tree diameter growth, with CDF receiving the highest rank.

Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of eastern California, USA; influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 749-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance I. Millar ◽  
Robert D. Westfall ◽  
Diane L. Delany ◽  
Matthew J. Bokach ◽  
Alan L. Flint ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Pinus Albicaulis ◽  
Whitebark Pine ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) in subalpine zones of eastern California experienced significant mortality from 2007 to 2010. Dying stands were dense (mean basal area 47.5 m2/ha), young (mean 176 years), and even-age; mean stand mortality was 70%. Stands were at low elevations (mean 2993 m), on northerly aspects, and experienced warmer, drier climates relative to the regional species distribution. White pine blister rust was not observed; mountain pine beetle infestations were extensive. Ring widths were negatively correlated with climatic water deficit and positively correlated with water-year precipitation. Although trees that survived had greater growth during the 20th century than trees that died, in the 19th century trees that eventually died grew better than trees that survived, suggesting selection for genetic adaptation to current climates as a result of differential tree mortality. Air surveys (2006–2010) in the Sierra Nevada, Mt. Shasta, and Warner Mountains showed similar trends to the intensive studies. Observed mortality from air surveys was highest in the Warner Mountains (38%) and lowest in the Sierra Nevada (5%); northern aspects at lower elevations within each mountain region had the highest probabilities of mortality and dying stands had higher climatic water deficit. Scenarios for the future of whitebark pine in California are discussed.

scholarly journals Tree mortality, recruitment and growth in a bamboo dominated forest fragment in southwestern Amazonia, Brazil

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herison Medeiros ◽  
Wendeson Castro ◽  
Cleber Ibraim Salimon ◽  
Izaias Brasil da Silva ◽  
Marcos Silveira
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Edge Effect ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Average Diameter ◽  
Recruitment Rate ◽  
Diameter Growth ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Forest Fragment ◽  
Southwestern Amazonia

Forest fragmentation affects the structure and dynamics of plant communities, leading to biodiversity loss in forest remnants. In this paper we show that in a bamboo (Guadua weberbaueri Pilger) dominated forest fragment in southwestern Amazonia edge effect may be confounded by bamboo effect, which also occur inside the forest. We measured growth, mortality and, recruitment rate of trees with DBH ≥ 10 cm, in a fragment of bamboo dominated open forest in southwestern Amazonia, state of Acre, Brazil, in 15 plots at the forest edge and 15 plots inside the forest fragment, 500 m away from the border. Time interval between censuses was 1.8 years. The average diameter growth rate differed significantly between edge (3.82 ± 0.10 mm a-1) and interior (2.39 ± 0.18 mm a-1); but there were no differences in annual mortality rate (edge = 3.8 ± 2.5 % a-1 CV = 65.7%; interior = 3.6 ± 2.6% a-1 CV = 72.2%) or in annual recruitment rate (edge = 7.1 ± 3.2% a-1 CV = 45%; interior = 8.9 ± 7.9% a-1 CV = 88.7%). Diameter growth rate, particularly of pioneer and fast-growing trees, is favored by the environmental conditions of the edge, where bamboo abundance is higher. However, the absence of an edge effect on mortality and recruitment could be due to the particular dynamics of bamboo patches, which could be mimicking forest edges and therefore masking possible edge effect in this fragment. We speculate that the mortality and recruitment patterns in fragmented forests of southwestern Amazonia is different from other areas in Amazonia and that bamboo is one of the key controllers of successional processes in these fragments.

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