Judgment Bias and Decision Making in Negotiation

2011 ◽  
pp. 211-227
Author(s):  
William P. Bottom ◽  
Dejun Tony Kong ◽  
Alexandra A. Mislin
2014 ◽  
pp. 191-207
Author(s):  
William P. Bottom ◽  
Dejun Tony Kong ◽  
Alexandra A. Mislin

2020 ◽  
pp. 205789112095983
Author(s):  
Eryan Ramadhani

This article aims to examine political decision-making by focusing on how leaders’ motivation to maintain power affects their perception of political survival. Such motivation however is susceptible to judgment bias. Built on political psychology, accountability may help leaders improve their cognitive complexity or make them resort to cognitive shortcuts. Where leaders end up in the cognitive spectrum depends on the type of audiences to whom they feel accountable: core (i.e. ruling elites and loyal voters) and external (i.e. the opposition and its supporters) audiences. Preoccupation with the former may prompt leaders to downplay the latter’s challenges. Moreover, leaders’ understanding of their support base may be mistaken—that core audiences may shift their allegiance to the opposition. The result is overconfidence. Analysing Najib Razak’s leadership (2009–2018), I argue that Najib’s perception of survival stemmed from his perceived unwavering loyalty towards core audiences, invulnerability as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) standard-bearer and the weakness of the opposition. Unfortunately, his overconfidence resulted in Barisan Nasional’s (BN) defeat in GE14.


Author(s):  
Bruce M. Perrin ◽  
Barbara J. Barnett ◽  
Larry C. Walrath

This presentation summarizes the results of an empirical study examining human judgment bias under conditions of uncertainty and time pressure in surface Anti-Air Warfare (AAW). A substantial body of research has demonstrated that humans apply a limited set of heuristics to simplify decision making in complex and ambiguous situations. Most of this research, however, has used college students making logical, but unfamiliar judgments. This study was designed to assess whether Naval personnel, trained and experienced in AAW operations, exhibit these biases when performing their normal duties. Specifically, we studied whether the judgments of Naval tactical action officers in a realistic task simulation exhibit characteristics of the biases of availability, representativeness, anchoring-contrast, and confirmation. Our prediction that experienced subjects would disregard lack of reliability in otherwise representative data was only partially supported by the study. On the other hand, each of our other predictions was strongly supported. Our subjects ignored baseline trends when other case-specific information was available (representativeness and availability). They were significantly influenced by the order they received evidence, showing a recency effect characteristic of contrast. Additionally, as is characteristic of confirmation bias, they recalled much more of the information that was consistent with their final hypothesis and evaluated it as more informative than the inconsistent data, regardless of which hypothesis they had adopted. Implications for Naval decision support systems information and display are discussed.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Vikki Neville ◽  
Peter Dayan ◽  
Iain D. Gilchrist ◽  
Elizabeth S. Paul ◽  
Michael Mendl

Abstract Good translatability of behavioral measures of affect (emotion) between human and nonhuman animals is core to comparative studies. The judgment bias (JB) task, which measures “optimistic” and “pessimistic” decision-making under ambiguity as indicators of positive and negative affective valence, has been used in both human and nonhuman animals. However, one key disparity between human and nonhuman studies is that the former typically use secondary reinforcers (e.g., money) whereas the latter typically use primary reinforcers (e.g., food). To address this deficiency and shed further light on JB as a measure of affect, we developed a novel version of a JB task for humans using primary reinforcers. Data on decision-making and reported affective state during the JB task were analyzed using computational modeling. Overall, participants grasped the task well, and as anticipated, their reported affective valence correlated with trial-by-trial variation in offered volume of juice. In addition, previous findings from monetary versions of the task were replicated: More positive prediction errors were associated with more positive affective valence, a higher lapse rate was associated with lower affective arousal, and affective arousal decreased as a function of number of trials completed. There was no evidence that more positive valence was associated with greater “optimism,” but instead, there was evidence that affective valence influenced the participants' decision stochasticity, whereas affective arousal tended to influence their propensity for errors. This novel version of the JB task provides a useful tool for investigation of the links between primary reward and punisher experience, affect, and decision-making, especially from a comparative perspective.


Author(s):  
Robert Drozd ◽  
Przemyslaw E. Cieslak ◽  
Michal Rychlik ◽  
Jan Rodriguez Parkitna ◽  
Rafal Rygula

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Danks

AbstractThe target article uses a mathematical framework derived from Bayesian decision making to demonstrate suboptimal decision making but then attributes psychological reality to the framework components. Rahnev & Denison's (R&D) positive proposal thus risks ignoring plausible psychological theories that could implement complex perceptual decision making. We must be careful not to slide from success with an analytical tool to the reality of the tool components.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.


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