In the mirror of transitology: The politics of power alternation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

In 2021 the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus celebrate the 30th anniversary of independence. According to the paradigm of transitology, the political development of a state since the departure from the authoritarian regime entails progressive liberalization and democratization of political processes. And, in accordance with the predominant theoretical approaches, the post-Soviet states were expected to follow this path. However, a closer look at the specifi c scenarios of power alternation in the Central Asia and the South Caucasus provides a much more mixed picture: here the change of ruling elites took very diff erent forms and shapes. The choice of scenario for the transfer of power was always determined by a complex combination of internal and external factors, including the nature and characteristics of the political system of a particular state, its ethnic com-position, the socio-economic situation and external environment. Nevertheless, it is possible to discern several key scenarios: a ‘revolutionary’ scenario, which implies a violent change of power; an intra-elite consensus; transition of power to a successor; a hereditary transmission of power; democratic elections; a resigna-tion of a president. A comparative analysis of the political processes unfolding in the region over the past 30 years shows that even institutionally the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are not ready yet for a competition policy. Moreover, the latter is generally viewed by their leaders as a threat to both the stability of the state and to the interests of the ruling elites. To this may be added the expansion of diff erent informal, archaic political practices across the post-Soviet space. The latter include the sacralization of power, when national interests are equated with the interests of the ruling clan and the whole national identity is built up around this nexus. All this shows the limits of classical transitology theory when it comes to political transformations in the post-Soviet space, which it is unable to explain, yet alone to predict their possible future development. Thus, there is a strong need to develop new theoretical frameworks that would better accommodate particularities of the regional political systems.

Elusive empowerment: characteristics of indirectly elected women chairpersons of district councils in Uttar Pradesh, India

The 73rd Amendment to the Constitution of India was introduced with a stated legislative intent of reserving not less than a third of seats for women in institutions of local self-government, the three-tier panchayati raj institutions. That amendment is considered a milestone in India’s project of empowerment of women. This paper evaluates the power and prestige of the post of an adhyaksha (chairperson) of a zila (district) panchayat (council) in general, and in particular the status of women elected to the post during 2016 in the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Analysing the candidature, electoral success, electoral practices and subsequent functioning of zila panchayat adhyakshas (ZPAs), the authors argue that despite seats being reserved for women, no meaningful political empowerment of women has occurred in UP. The paper questions the efficacy of the indirect mode of election of ZPAs in bringing about empowerment of women, arguing that indirect elections enable powerful ruling elites to use women as proxies, subverting the legislative intent of the 73rd Amendment. The paper therefore proposes electoral reforms.

Russian Strategic Culture: Why the Past Matters

Today, strategic culture becomes an essential element of the national security policy of the Russian Federation. While absorbing some modern aspects, its strategic culture reflects historical lessons learnt by the Russian Empire and the USSR. Russia still cannot refuse from the idea to restore its superpower status and to fight for new territories. Thus, we can define a number of essential elements of the Russian strategic culture formed in relation to the historical and contemporary development of this state. Throughout the history, the Russians have legitimized the decisions and activities of the ruling elites. As the Russian leadership has long built up powerful associations which had taken root in the minds of people while remembering patriotism and love for their Motherland, the Russians believe in the importance of maintaining and enhancing patriotic feelings. While cultivating its civilizational and cultural detachment, Russia continues developing its own messianic idea which envisages the views of the special historical kismet of Russia. In order to fulfill its global tasks, Russia uses the policy of military interventions and violates state sovereignty of other countries, since the ‘militant’ political culture of its leaders has always militarized the strategic culture of the RF. So, the strategic culture of Russia emanates from the unique position and history of this state which manages to adapt it to the new realities. However, Russia’s aspirations to reclaim its status as a global superpower at any cost do not allow its strategic culture to be changed or even to be altered.

FOREIGN POLICY OF THE SOUTH CAUCASIAN COUNTRIES: RESULTS AND NEW CHALLENGES

The newly independent states (South Caucasian countries being no exception), the products of the Soviet Union’s traumatic disintegration, needed independent foreign policies. Throughout the three decades of their independence they formulated their priorities and defined approaches and principles under strong pressure of certain factors. This process has been unfolding amid the complicated social and political processes and geopolitical transformations in the region shaken by the post-Soviet ethnic conflicts. As could be expected, the newly independent South Caucasian states opted for different routes in their economic and statehood development, while their ruling elites took into account the external and internal contexts when shaping their foreign policies. Different approaches and different foreign policy priorities opened the doors to non-regional geopolitical actors: the United States, the European Union, Iran and Turkey have joined Russia, whose presence is rooted in its past. Recently, China, Israel and Japan have become interested in the region. Thus, today the regional countries are orientated to the interests of non-regional states. This has not benefited the situation in the region or cooperation among the regional states. Foreign policy of the South Caucasian countries is inseparable from the regional security problems, which means that it should become an object of meticulous studies. In the latter half of 2020, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh changed the region’s geopolitical setting and shattered its stability. The article sums up the results of the policies pursued by the South Caucasian countries and identifies the challenges and possible developments in the region after the Karabakh war of 2020.

Transformation of the Ethiopian Political Elite and the Armed Conflict in Tigray: from Driving Predecessors out to De-Escalation?

In the article the authors consider elite dimension of the conflict in Tigray. Conducting the analysis of intra-elite processes allows both to find out the roots and to estimate the consequences of the most fast-moving conflict in the Horn of Africa. The research consists of five conceptual parts, which are preluded by a short description of the run of events. In the first part the conflict potential which takes its roots in 1994-2018 is explained. It starts with the basic notion that ethnic lines predetermine formation of elites in Ethiopia. Then the study shows that one of the main causes for the dispute which has severely divided political elites was the hegemony of the TPLF in government institutions. The second part refers to the transit of power. Here the point under consideration is redistribution of resources and particular strategies adopted by polarized elites. The analysis demonstrates that Abiy Ahmed and his allies did their best to deprive the TPLF leaders of power and economic resources. The TPLF resorted to ethnic mobilization while their rivals tried to break the unity of Tigrayans through stressing the existence of a class conflict. The third and the fourth chapters focus on the investigation of federal elites’ and «tigrayan clan’s» current positions respectively. In conclusion, the authors structure their findings and estimate the perspectives of inter-elites consensus. The research provides three important conclusions. Firstly, the roots of the conflict led to the formation of «action-response» cycles which was the basis for a rapid development and escalation. Secondly, the ongoing war even consolidates ruling elites in their fear of the TPLF. Finally, de-escalation and negotiations may become possible amid internal disputes in the Prosperity Party.

Burundi: International Pressure and Counter-Sanctional Maneuvering of Ruling Elites

Using the example of one of the poorest and economically most vulnerable states in the world – the Republic of Burundi – the article examines the impact of international sanctions on foreign and domestic policy as well as upon the economic situation in sovereign states of African. The author demonstrates that, despite the severe destructive consequences of the economic and political sanctions of external players, the use of restrictive regimes against “recalcitrant” actors of interstate relations does not automatically lead to a change in their line of behaviour or to the downfall of the ruling regimes. As the example of Burundi shows, even in the conditions of the poorest country in the world, well-thought-out political maneuvering and reasonable use of available resources can allow the targeted state and its elites to remain in power indefinitely and to maintain the political status quo.

Before American History: Nationalist Mythmaking and Indigenous Dispossession

Before American History examines the project of settler nationalism from the 1780s to the 1840s in two of North America’s republics—the US and Mexico—through an analysis of historical knowledge production. As the US and Mexico transformed from European colonies into independent republics—and before war scarred them both—antiquarians and historians compiled and interpreted archives meant to document America’s Indigenous pasts. Before American History approaches two iconic imaginings of the past—the carved Sun Stone and the mounded earthwork—as archives of nationalist power and Indigenous dispossession as well as objects that are, at their material base, Indigenously-produced but settler-controlled and settler-interpreted. In making the connection between earthworks built by an allegedly vanished people merely peripheral to US citizens and the literal touchstone of Mexicans’ history, Before American History details how Mexican and US nationalists created national histories out of Indigenous pasts and thereby wrote Indigenous pasts out of their national histories and out of national lands. It uncovers how the manipulation of Indigenous pasts and (mis)interpretations of “American Antiquities”—Indigenous documents, objects and monuments—served the purposes of a trans-imperial/transnational network of creole ruling elites, first in New Spain and British America, and later in Mexico and the United States, as they struggled to construct new political, geographic, and historical orders.

‘New normality’ of the covid-19 era: Opportunities, limitations, risks

The article considers some key aspects of the current transformation of social reality. The author argues that the announcement of the pandemic determined an unprecedented situation: humanity faces a completely different concept of reality. In particular, the breakthrough in the development of NBIC technologies (nano, bio, new information and cognitive technologies) contributes to the strengthening of the paradigm that absolutizes the technocratic component of civilizational development. Under the general depression and decline in economic activity, there is an explosive growth in the field of bioengineering, information and cognitive research. The new normality of the coronavirus era, associated with the unprecedented development of artificial intelligence systems, video surveillance technologies, geolocation and big data, in an unusually short time has created new existential and legal problems. The proclaimed threat to public health, being a significant goal-setting, has become a dominant justification for the introduction of serious innovations that allow the ruling elites to block civil rights, in particular, to legalize the use of tracking systems. Under the fight against the pandemic, the personal identification systems based on advanced technologies are being transformed from a security tool of law enforcement agencies into a tool of mass social engineering. Russia has come close to a new stage of digital transformation - a state-wide credential management system (the Unified Federal Information Register). Considering the experience of China in digital segregation, concerns arise: will digitalization turn into something dangerous as the algorithms of artificial intelligence improve, the use of biometric surveillance broaden, etc.? The article emphasizes that scanning the appearance and collecting information about citizens allows to create a gigantic array of data, the use of which can have unpredictable consequences, and the problem of their unauthorized use is not the main one. The power of algorithms, which allows to manipulate a person by means of continuously collected information about him, can turn into a new, sophisticated form of genocide.

Influence of social media will grow in Madagascar

Significance The situation has exposed several scandals, putting President Andry Rajoelina and his entourage on the political defensive. Social media has become a potent political weapon in the hands of ruling elites as a way to shape political narratives and discredit opponents. Impacts Rajoelina will struggle to hold together his circle of political allies in the run-up to the 2023 elections. Opposition groups will have difficulty capitalising on government divisions due to their own fragmentation. Social media will play an increasingly central role in driving political debate.

Carnivalesque humor, emotional paradoxes, and street protests in Thailand

Conventional wisdom has it that street protests are typically driven by rage due to grievances perceived to inflict on a group. This emotive atmosphere can shape protest methods to be vandalistic to the point where armed attacks against targeted opponents are justified. This paper suggests that rage-influenced struggle can be counterproductive as it obstructs a movement from building a coalition board enough to challenge the ruling elites it opposes. This paper argues that carnivalization of protests can prevent this setback in two directions. First, it potentially transforms protesters’ collective emotion from rage to cheerfulness. This effect may lessen a possibility where protesters project violent revenge on those thought to represent the ruling elites. Second, while helping protesters to address sources of their grievances, carnivalesque protests create a “friendly” image that may convince a public audience outside the movement to support its cause. In assessing a political process of carnivalesque protests, this paper bases its analysis on an account of protest actions by Thailand’s Red Sunday group emerging after the 2010 crackdown.