scholarly journals A multiplicative process for generating a beta-like survival function with application to the UK 2016 EU referendum results

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 1750132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevor Fenner ◽  
Eric Kaufmann ◽  
Mark Levene ◽  
George Loizou
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Survival Function ◽  
Ecological Inference ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Contextual and selection effects tend to produce extreme values in the tails of rank-ordered distributions of both census data and district-level election outcomes. Models that account for this nonlinearity generally outperform linear models. Fitting nonlinear functions based on rank-ordering census and election data therefore improves the fit of aggregate voting models. This may help improve ecological inference, as well as election forecasting in majoritarian systems. We propose a generative multiplicative decrease model that gives rise to a rank-order distribution and facilitates the analysis of the recent UK EU referendum results. We supply empirical evidence that the beta-like survival function, which can be generated directly from our model, is a close fit to the referendum results, and also may have predictive value when covariate data are available.

Car Ownership and the Built Environment: A Spatial Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110494
Author(s):  
Jerome Laviolette ◽  
Catherine Morency ◽  
Owen D. Waygood ◽  
Konstadinos G. Goulias
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Car Ownership ◽  
Grocery Stores ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Environment Variables

Car ownership is linked to higher car use, which leads to important environmental, social and health consequences. As car ownership keeps increasing in most countries, it remains relevant to examine what factors and policies can help contain this growth. This paper uses an advanced spatial econometric modeling framework to investigate spatial dependences in household car ownership rates measured at fine geographical scales using administrative data of registered vehicles and census data of household counts for the Island of Montreal, Canada. The use of a finer level of spatial resolution allows for the use of more explanatory variables than previous aggregate models of car ownership. Theoretical considerations and formal testing suggested the choice of the Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) as an appropriate modeling option. The final model specification includes sociodemographic and built environment variables supported by theory and achieves a Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 of 0.93. Despite the inclusion of those variables the spatial linear models with and without lagged explanatory variables still exhibit residual spatial dependence. This indicates the presence of unobserved autocorrelated factors influencing car ownership rates. Model results indicate that sociodemographic variables explain much of the variance, but that built environment characteristics, including transit level of service and local commercial accessibility (e.g., to grocery stores) are strongly and negatively associated with neighborhood car ownership rates. Comparison of estimates between the SDEM and a non-spatial model indicates that failing to control for spatial dependence leads to an overestimation of the strength of the direct influence of built environment variables.

scholarly journals Quantifying Media Influence and Partisan Attention on Twitter During the UK EU Referendum

2018 ◽  
pp. 274-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genevieve Gorrell ◽  
Ian Roberts ◽  
Mark A. Greenwood ◽  
Mehmet E. Bakir ◽  
Benedetta Iavarone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Media Influence ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals The Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Sizer ◽  
Oliver Duke-Williams
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Sampling Bias ◽  
Large Sample Size ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Uk ◽  
State Pension

Background and Rationale The ONS Longitudinal Study (‘the LS’) covers England and Wales and includes individual data from the 1971 – 2011 decennial censuses and linked information on births, deaths and cancer registrations. It is representative of the population of England and Wales. Aim This presentation describes the LS and the linked administrative data, and showcases recent/ prominent examples of research. Methods and Approach The LS is built around samples drawn from decennial censuses, with its initial sample drawn from the 1971 Census. It also contains information about other people living in a sample-member’s household. Substantial emphasis is placed on security of access to the data and its responsible use. All research outputs are checked and are only released to users once disclosure control requirements are met. Linkage of study members from one census to another and vital events is carried out by ONS. Results The LS has been used for a variety of research. Using linked census and death records occupational differences in mortality rates have been researched. Individual records from all five censuses have been used to contribute to research social mobility, and research has also investigated the effects of long-term exposure to air pollution. Research has provided evidence of impact for social policy issues, e.g. health inequalities and the State Pension Age Review. Discussion The main strength of the LS is its large sample size (>1 million), making it the largest nationally representative longitudinal dataset in the UK. This allows analysis of small areas and specific population groups. Sampling bias is almost nil, and response rates are very high relative to other cohort and panel studies. Conclusion The ONS Longitudinal Study is a vital UK research asset, providing access to a large sample of census data linked across five censuses. It is strengthened through linkage to events data.

scholarly journals A Corpus-assisted Critical Discourse Analysis of the Discursive Representation of Immigration in the EU Referendum Debate

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebtisam Saleh Aluthman
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Daily News ◽  
Concordance Analysis ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

This paper presents a critical account of the representation of immigration in the Brexit corpus—a collective corpus of 108,452,923 words compiled mostly from blogs, tweets, and daily news related to Brexit debate. The study follows the methodological synergy approach proposed by Baker et al. (2008), a heuristic methodological approach that combines methods of discourse analysis and corpus-assisted statistical tools including keyword, collocation, and concordance analysis. Drawing on this methodological synergy approach, the investigation yields significant findings contextualized within the socio-economic-political context of the European Union (EU) leave referendum to trace how the issue of immigration is represented in the discourses of the Remain and Leave campaigns. The frequency results show that immigration is one of the most salient topics in the Brexit corpus. Concordance analysis of the word immigrants and collocation investigation of the word immigration reveal opposing attitudes toward immigration in the EU referendum debate. The analysis uncovers negative attitudes toward the uncontrolled flow of immigrants from other EU countries and public concerns about immigrants' negative impacts on wages, education, and health services. Other findings reveal positive attitudes toward immigrants emphasizing their positive contributions to the UK economy. The study concludes with an argument of the significant association between the political and socio-economic ideologies of a particular society and the language communicated in its media.

The Electoral Geography of Weimar Germany: Exploratory Spatial Data Analyses (ESDA) of Protestant Support for the Nazi Party

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
John O'Loughlin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Nazi Party ◽  
Ecological Inference ◽  
Inference Procedure ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Weimar Germany ◽  
Strong Attachment

For more than half a century, social scientists have probed the aggregate correlates of the vote for the Nazi party (NSDAP) in Weimar Germany. Since individual-level data are not available for this time period, aggregate census data for small geographic units have been heavily used to infer the support of the Nazi party by various compositional groups. Many of these studies hint at a complex geographic patterning. Recent developments in geographic methodologies, based on Geographic Information Science (GIS) and spatial statistics, allow a deeper probing of these regional and local contextual elements. In this paper, a suite of geographic methods—global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation, variography, distance-based correlation, directional spatial correlograms, vector mapping, and barrier definition (wombling)—are used in an exploratory spatial data analysis of the NSDAP vote. The support for the NSDAP by Protestant voters (estimated using King's ecological inference procedure) is the key correlate examined. The results from the various methods are consistent in showing a voting surface of great complexity, with many local clusters that differ from the regional trend. The Weimar German electoral map does not show much evidence of a nationalized electorate, but is better characterized as a mosaic of support for “milieu parties,” mixed across class and other social lines, and defined by a strong attachment to local traditions, beliefs, and practices.

A Tale of Two Theories: Whither Social Disorganization Theory and the Routine Activities Approach?

2021 ◽  
pp. e20210013
Author(s):  
Jen-Li Shen ◽  
Martin A. Andresen
Keyword(s):  
Social Disorganization ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Routine Activities ◽  
Routine Activity ◽  
Social Disorganization Theory ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
Routine Activities Approach

Social disorganization theory and the routine activities approach have been extensively applied separately as theoretical frameworks for the spatial analysis of crime, with general support. As hypothetical explanations for complex social phenomena, criminological theories can impact how studies are framed and how the crime problem is approached. Thus, it is important to evaluate theories continuously in various geographical, as well as contemporary contexts. This study uses both theories in tandem to examine their ability to explain 2016 property crime in Vancouver, Canada, using 2016 census data. Both theories found moderate support. Of particular note is that all of the variables designated as proxies for ethnic heterogeneity in social disorganization theory were either not statistically significant or negative, consistent with the immigration and crime literature. Additionally, almost all variables, when statistically significant, were found to have consistent results across crime types. These results bode well for the continued use of social disorganization theory and the routine activity approach in spatial analyses of crime.

Bigdata-based investigation of heterogeneous migration and population distribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Fan ◽  
L. Xiong ◽  
Bo Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Demographic Trend ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Migration Probability

Abstract Human mobility is very important in understanding complex social and economic systems. With massive empirical datasets from the China Household Finance Survey and the National Statistics in the UK, we construct a migration probability matrix, and analyze the heterogeneous migration patterns. We then develop a random walk model to dynamically simulate the population distribution. In the stationary state, the resulting population distribution is in good agreement with the real statistical data. For comparison, simulations with an optimized gravity model and other datasets such as the census data in China are also performed. Further, the model simulation is applied to predict the demographic trend with different education levels. Our method could be generally extended to other real communities and internet worlds.

Diaspora Community Festivals and Tourism

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Fu ◽  
Philip Long ◽  
Rhodri Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Social Values ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Community Festivals ◽  
Tourism Studies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Tourism Attractions ◽  
Minority Ethnic ◽  
Over Time

Festivals that celebrate the identities, cultures and traditions of diverse minority, ethnic, diaspora communities are significant cultural and social phenomena. They may also contribute to the visitor economy, for example through increasing tourism income, government revenue and employment (Maclinchey, 2008; O’Sullivan and Jackson, 2002; Picard and Robinson, 2006). Furthermore, diaspora community festivals may contribute to enriching the development of place-images and destination marketing themes that seek to reflect diversity and promote a ‘globalised’ image of the population of the area (usually city) where such festivals take place (Paradis, 2002). As a consequence, ‘festival tourism’ has entered the language of tourism studies, defined as “a phenomenon in which people from outside a festival locale visit during the festival period” (O’Sullivan and Jackson, 2002: 325). This chapter contributes to festival tourism studies by exploring Chinese New Year festivals in the UK and their emerging prominence as tourism attractions. Research in this area examines its potential for building bridges between communities and cultures. Some scholars problematise the term ‘festival tourism’ and resist defining it as a particular category of the tourism market. For example, Quinn (2009) refuses to employ this term, arguing that the primary purpose of festivals is not usually the generation of tourism. Some contemporary festivals do possess a strong place-marketing or tourism objective as part of their rationale. However, many ‘traditional festivals’ that celebrate community beliefs, social values and identities do not have tourism as a primary purpose (though this may be a significant secondary outcome). Examples include festivities associated with belief systems and annual cultural events such as those associated with the Chinese New Year (Bakhtin, 1984; Humphrey, 2001; Magliocco, 2006). Although these festivals have changed in their form over time and some of them may have associations with tourism, they cannot be equated with events that are planned primarily for tourism.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document