ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE REAL ECONOMY OF SINGAPORE

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
KHANDOKAR ISTIAK
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates (for the first time) the impact of the economic policy uncertainties of Singapore and its major trading partners on Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The study uses monthly data from January 2003 to August 2019, correlation analysis, spillover index analysis and a structural vector autoregression model to perform the investigation. Using the newly invented Singaporean economic policy uncertainty index, the research finds that it is a good predictor of industrial production. It is found that, in general, uncertainty depresses Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The paper suggests that policymakers promote new entrepreneurship and build a skilled labor force to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the economy of Singapore.

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110253
Author(s):  
Abebe Hailemariam ◽  
Kris Ivanovski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Net Export ◽  
Positive Effect

This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seabelo T. Nyawo ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock. 

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES: PRE-PANDEMIC EVIDENCE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan Romih
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The World ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
The Impact

Although the Covid-19 pandemic (the Great Lockdown), which began in March 2020, is not over yet (mainly due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as Delta), there is already a growing body of evidence that suggests that the Covid-19 pandemic has contributed to an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the United States and the rest of the world. In this paper, I examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on industrial production in the United States before the Covid-19 pandemic. Using vector autoregression, I found that industrial production in the United States responds negatively to a positive economic policy uncertainty shock in the United States. This suggests that US economic policymakers need to prevent economic policy uncertainty in the United States

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Seabelo T. Nyawo ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Structural Vars ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on Indian macroeconomic variables with a number of Structural VARs. This study models the economic policy uncertainty index as constructed by Baker et al. (2013). The study also uses a set of macroeconomic variables for India such as inflation, industrial production and nominal interest rate. The objective of the study is to identify the potential impacts of economic policy uncertainty shocks from the US economy to the Indian economy. According to the SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to the US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant decline in the Indian industrial production of -0.294% and in the Indian inflation of -0.032%. India shows to be resistant to US policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the study finds that the contribution of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Indian macroeconomic variables is shown to be significantly larger than the one exerted by the Indian uncertainty shock. 

scholarly journals Whether Digital Financial Inclusion Can Improve Capital Misallocation or Not: A Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Guohua He ◽  
Lu Shen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper discusses the impact of digital financial inclusion on regional capital’s turn from the fictitious to the substantial economy. The continuous decline of the capital efficiency of the real economy is an important reason for the misallocation of financial capital, such as the financialization of real enterprises. Development of the digital financial inclusion helps to relieve small and micro businesses from financing constraints, encourage civilian consumption, and improve services concerning issues of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Yet, its financial features also indicate potential systematic risks, manifested as the capital’s departure from its intended purpose of serving the substantial economy, given some beneficiaries’ investment in the fictitious economy. Based on the provincial panel data between 2011 and 2019, this paper constructs an index describing capital’s diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy. This paper then analyzes the impact of digital financial inclusion on such a diversion of the regional capital, investigating the regulatory effects caused by the uncertainty in economic policies. Empirical study reveals that digital financial inclusion has an evident positive effect on regional capital’s diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy but without any spatial spillover effect. Among the three subdimensions of digital financial inclusion-scope of coverage, depth of usage, and level of digitalization, the scope of coverage has the strongest positive effect, and digitization level, the weakest. The positive correlation between digital financial inclusion and capital diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy is under negative regulation due to economic policy uncertainty. In other words, increasing uncertainty in the economic policy would weaken digital financial inclusion’s support of the substantial economy.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and tourism. A regional approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Beatriz Benítez-Aurioles
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Patterns Of Behavior ◽  
Tourist Demand ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overnight Stays

The aim of this article is to analyze and quantify the impact of uncertainty on tourist demand at a regional level. More specifically, with data corresponding to the period between 2000T1 and 2019T3, it estimates the elasticity of overnight stays in hotels in different Spanish Autonomous Regions in response to changes in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU). The econometric analysis performed not only confirms the inverse relationship between tourist demand and uncertainty, but also detects patterns of behavior between regions that can be geographically grouped. In general, regions with a higher number of overnight stays per inhabitant tend to be more sensitive to uncertainty.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

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