Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: Local Versus Global Awareness

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (07) ◽  
pp. 2150102
Author(s):  
Pankaj Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Rajanish Kumar Rai ◽  
Arvind Kumar Misra ◽  
Joydev Chattopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Global Awareness ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Globally Attractive

Public awareness programs may deeply influence the epidemic pattern of a contagious disease by altering people’s perception of risk and individuals behavior during the course of the epidemic outbreak. Regardless of the veracity, social media advertisements are expected to execute an increasingly prominent role in the field of infectious disease modeling. In this paper, we propose a model which portrays the interplay between dissemination of awareness at local and global levels, and prevalence of disease. Our sensitivity results determine the correlations between some epidemiologically important parameters and disease prevalence. The growth rate of broadcasting information through social media is found to destabilize the system through limit cycle oscillations whereas the baseline number of social media advertisements stabilize the system by terminating persistent oscillations. The system first undergoes supercritical Hopf-bifurcation and then subcritical Hopf-bifurcation on gradual increase in dissemination rate of awareness at local/global level. Moreover, the disease is eradicated if the dissemination rates of awareness and baseline number of social media advertisements are too large. We also study the effect of seasonal variation of the growth rate of social media advertisements. Our nonautonomous system generates globally attractive positive periodic solution if the growth rate of social media advertisements lies between certain ranges. However, the global attractivity is affected on enhancement in growth rate of social media advertisements and three-periodic solution is observed. Our findings show that baseline number of social media advertisements and dissemination of awareness at individual as well as community levels play a tremendous role in eliminating the burden of disease. Furthermore, a comparison of the effects of local and global awareness reveals that the latter is more effective in curtailing the disease. We believe these findings may be beneficial to understand the contagion characteristics of real epidemics and help to adopt suitable precautionary measures in the form of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

scholarly journals Global dynamics of a stage-structured hantavirus infection model with seasonality

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-40
Author(s):  
Junli Liu ◽  
Tailei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Clethrionomys Glareolus ◽  
Hantavirus Infection ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Periodic Model ◽  
Globally Attractive

In this paper, we study a time-periodic model, which incorporates seasonality and host stage-structure. This model describes the propagation of Puumala hantavirus within the bank vole population of Clethrionomys glareolus. The basic reproduction number R0 is obtained. By appealing to the theory of monotone dynamical systems and chain transitive sets, we establish a threshold-type result on the global dynamics in terms of R0, that is, the virus-free periodic solution is globally attractive, and the virus dies out if R0 ≤ 1, while there exists a unique positive periodic solution, which is globally attractive, and the virus persists if R0 > 1. Numerical simulations are given to confirm our theoretical results and to show that cleaning environment and controlling the grow of mice population are essential control strategies to reduce hantavirus infection.

A NONAUTONOMOUS MODEL FOR THE INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF FEAR, REFUGE AND ADDITIONAL FOOD IN A PREY–PREDATOR SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
NAZMUL SK ◽  
PANKAJ KUMAR TIWARI ◽  
YUN KANG ◽  
SAMARES PAL
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Oscillatory System ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Prey Refuge ◽  
Additional Food ◽  
Predator System

The importance of fear, refuge and additional food is being increasingly recognized in recent studies, but their combined effects need to be explored. In this paper, we investigate the joint effects of these three ecologically important factors in a prey–predator system with Crowly–Martin type functional response. We find that the fear of predator significantly affects the densities of prey and predator populations whereas the presence of prey refuge and additional food for predator are recognized to have potential impacts to sustain prey and predator in the habitat, respectively. The fear of predator induces limit cycle oscillations while an oscillatory system becomes stable on increasing the refuge. The system first undergoes a supercritical Hopf-bifurcation and then a subcritical Hopf-bifurcation on increasing either the growth rate of prey or growth rate of predator due to additional food. Increasing the quality/quantity of additional food after a certain value causes extinction of prey species and rapid incline in the predator population. An extension is made in the model by considering the seasonal variations in the cost of fear of predator, prey refuge and growth rate of predator due to additional food. The nonautonomous model is shown to exhibit globally attractive positive periodic solution. Moreover, complex dynamics such as higher periodic solutions and bursting patterns are observed due to seasonal variations in the rate parameters.

scholarly journals A new approach to persistence and periodicity of logistic systems with jumps

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 12245-12259
Author(s):  
Kegang Zhao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Control Theory ◽  
Differential System ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Discontinuous Control ◽  
Globally Attractive

<abstract><p>This paper considers a class of logistic type differential system with jumps. Based on discontinuous control theory, a new approach is developed to guarantee the persistence and existence of a unique globally attractive positive periodic solution. The development results of this paper emphasize the effects of jumps on system, which are different from the existing ones in the literature. Two examples and their simulations are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals On the dynamics of a periodic delay logistic equation with diffusion

1992 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-134
Author(s):  
K. Gopalasamy ◽  
Pei-Xuan Weng
Keyword(s):  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Positive Integer ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Logistic Equation ◽  
Periodic Functions ◽  
Periodic Delay ◽  
Globally Attractive ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Delay Logistic Equation

Sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of a globally attractive positive periodic solution of the periodic diffusive delay logistic systemin which τ and K are positive periodic functions of period τ, n is a positive integer and ö is a nonnegative number; sufficient conditions are also obtained for all positive solutions to be oscillatory about the periodic solution.

Transitions Within Queer North African Cinema

Screen Bodies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter S. Temple
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Film Festivals ◽  
Global Awareness ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
North African ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
African Cinema ◽  
Queer Cinema

In recent years, North African queer cinema has become increasingly visible both within and beyond Arabo-Orientale spaces. A number of critical factors have contributed to a global awareness of queer identities in contemporary Maghrebi cinema, including the dissemination of films through social media outlets and during international film festivals. Such tout contemporain representations of queer sexuality characterize a robust wave of films in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, inciting a new discourse on the condition of the marginalized traveler struggling to locate new forms of self and being—both at home and abroad.

Hugh Jackman vs. Skin Cancer Awareness Month: Promoting Public Interest in Basal Cell Carcinoma (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevor Torgerson ◽  
Jennifer Austin ◽  
Jam Khojasteh ◽  
Matt Vassar
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Skin Cancer ◽  
Basal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Basal Cell ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Sun Exposure ◽  
Cancer Awareness ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

BACKGROUND Public awareness for BCC is particularly important, as its major risk factors — increased sun exposure and number of sunburns — are largely preventable. OBJECTIVE Determine whether social media posts from celebrities has an affect on public awareness of basal cell carcinoma. METHODS We used Google Trends to investigate whether public awareness for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) increased following social media posts from Hugh Jackman. To forecast the expected search interest for BCC, melanoma and sunscreen in the event that each celebrity had not posted on social media, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) algorithm. RESULTS We found that social media posts from Hugh Jackman, a well-known actor, increased relative search interest above the expected search interest calculated using an ARIMA forecasting model. CONCLUSIONS Our results also suggest that increasing awareness by Skin Cancer Awareness Month may be less effective for BCC, but a celebrity spokesperson has the potential to increase awareness. BCC is largely preventable, so increasing awareness could lead to a decrease in incidence.

scholarly journals Public Awareness: What Climate Change Scientists Should Consider

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8369
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Connected Network ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Valuable Addition ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
Design Solutions ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

In this Opinion, the importance of public awareness to design solutions to mitigate climate change issues is highlighted. A large-scale acknowledgment of the climate change consequences has great potential to build social momentum. Momentum, in turn, builds motivation and demand, which can be leveraged to develop a multi-scale strategy to tackle the issue. The pursuit of public awareness is a valuable addition to the scientific approach to addressing climate change issues. The Opinion is concluded by providing strategies on how to effectively raise public awareness on climate change-related topics through an integrated, well-connected network of mavens (e.g., scientists) and connectors (e.g., social media influencers).

scholarly journals Investigation on dynamics of an impulsive predator–prey system with generalized Holling type IV functional response and anti-predator behavior

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekson Sirisubtawee ◽  
Nattawut Khansai ◽  
Akapak Charoenloedmongkhon
Keyword(s):  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Functional Response ◽  
Impulsive Control ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Existence Condition ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Type Iv ◽  
Prey System ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Predator Behavior

AbstractIn the present article, we propose and analyze a new mathematical model for a predator–prey system including the following terms: a Monod–Haldane functional response (a generalized Holling type IV), a term describing the anti-predator behavior of prey populations and one for an impulsive control strategy. In particular, we establish the existence condition under which the system has a locally asymptotically stable prey-eradication periodic solution. Violating such a condition, the system turns out to be permanent. Employing bifurcation theory, some conditions, under which the existence and stability of a positive periodic solution of the system occur but its prey-eradication periodic solution becomes unstable, are provided. Furthermore, numerical simulations for the proposed model are given to confirm the obtained theoretical results.

scholarly journals An exact expression of positive periodic solution for a first-order singular equation

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Xin ◽  
Xiaoxiao Cui ◽  
Jie Liu
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Periodic Solution ◽  
Lower Bounds ◽  
Topological Degree ◽  
Order Differential Equation ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Exact Expression ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Singular Equation ◽  
First Order

Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to obtain an exact expression of the positive periodic solution for a first-order differential equation with attractive and repulsive singularities. Moreover, we prove the existence of at least one positive periodic solution for this equation with an indefinite singularity by applications of topological degree theorem, and give the upper and lower bounds of the positive periodic solution.

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