THE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY IN EASTERN EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET UNION

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (04) ◽  
pp. 341-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
EMANUELE MASSETTI ◽  
MASSIMO TAVONI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Important Region

This paper provides one of the few assessments of the economic implications of climate change policies in the important region of Eastern Europe and post-Soviet states. We use an integrated assessment model to evaluate the consequences of implementing climate policies consistent with the targets proposed by the Major Economies Forum by mid-century. We decompose the economic impacts in terms of domestic abatement costs, of oil trading and of international emission permit trading for a variety of scenarios, and show that these could be substantial for this region. The results point towards innovation and economic diversification as key complementary measures to be implemented in preparation of climate mitigation strategies.

Nuclear Energy in Eastern Europe and the Former Sovient Union: How Safe and How Much?

1995 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Sinyak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Nuclear Reactors ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
Near Future

Nuclear power in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is one of the mostly debated issues. There are many controversial opinions around this topic, but lack of data and unstable economic and political climate have prevented the situation from guaranteed improvements in the near future. The goal of this study is to look for a reasonable nuclear policy in the region based on numerical estimates of expected risks and economic assessments of possible options of phasing-out unsafe and obsolete nuclear reactors. A long-tern future of nuclear energy is analyzed for three main energy scenarios with a different impacts to the response to climate change. The study creates a good background for the negotiations on nuclear energy in Eastern Europe and the FSU between Western investors and local states.

scholarly journals Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil

2022 ◽  
Vol 170 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre C. Köberle ◽  
Vassilis Daioglou ◽  
Pedro Rochedo ◽  
André F. P. Lucena ◽  
Alexandre Szklo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Diagnostic Model ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
New Research

AbstractThe usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.

scholarly journals Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia R. Santos da Silva ◽  
Mohamad I. Hejazi ◽  
Gokul Iyer ◽  
Thomas B. Wild ◽  
Matthew Binsted ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Financial Infrastructure ◽  
Primary Focus

AbstractClimate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

scholarly journals Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1603-1620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassilis Daioglou ◽  
Steven K. Rose ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Alban Kitous ◽  
Matteo Muratori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Biomass Feedstock ◽  
Technology Deployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Change Mitigation

AbstractBioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.

scholarly journals Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre C Köberle ◽  
Vassilis Daioglou ◽  
Pedro Rochedo ◽  
André F. P. Lucena ◽  
Alexandre Szklo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Diagnostic Model ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
New Research

Abstract The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.

scholarly journals Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1519-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen ◽  
Pim van Dorst ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Maarten van den Berg ◽  
Rita Van Dingenen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Ambient Air Pollution

AbstractMitigation of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions can potentially contribute to both reducing air pollution and climate change, although mixed results have been reported regarding the latter. A detailed quantification of the synergy between global air quality and climate policy is still lacking. This study contributes with an integrated assessment model-based scenario analysis of BC-focused mitigation strategies aimed at maximizing air quality and climate benefits. The impacts of these policy strategies have been examined under different socio-economic conditions, climate ambitions, and BC mitigation strategies. The study finds that measures targeting BC emissions (including reduction of co-emitted organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxides) result in significant decline in premature mortality due to ambient air pollution, in the order of 4 to 12 million avoided deaths between 2015 and 2030. Under certain circumstances, BC mitigation can also reduce climate change, i.e., mainly by lowering BC emissions in the residential sector and in high BC emission scenarios. Still, the effect of BC mitigation on global mean temperature is found to be modest at best (with a maximum short-term GMT decrease of 0.02 °C in 2030) and could even lead to warming (with a maximum increase of 0.05 °C in case of a health-focused strategy, where all aerosols are strongly reduced). At the same time, strong climate policy would improve air quality (the opposite relation) through reduced fossil fuel use, leading to an estimated 2 to 5 million avoided deaths in the period up to2030. By combining both air quality and climate goals, net health benefits can be maximized.

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